The Nats are now 110 games into the season, and sit at an even 55-55. As we all know, the offense has been electric, even if they have struggled late in games lately. However, the pitching staff, especially the bullpen has been holding this team back. When you add it all up, you get a perfectly average team.
With the third Wild Card in place, being mediocre means you are right in the middle of the playoff race. Before last night’s loss, the Nats were only two games out of a Wild Card spot. With everyone
around them losing, the Nats are still only 2.5 games out, in a cluster of five teams that are all within a game of each other.
Should the Nationals put their chips in with the goal of claiming that third Wild Card spot, or should the front office continue to build for the future? Right now, prognosticators give the Nats around a 10% chance of making the playoffs. However, this next week will give us a lot more clarity.
Between the deadline and this 8 game run against the Braves and Phillies, we will learn a lot about where the Nats truly stand. The Nats certainly have a chance to make the playoffs, but this is definitely not a year where I would go all in. There are so many teams clustered together, and the Nats will have to play better than all of them down the stretch to make it in. Is that possible? Sure, but I do not think it is very likely.
There are experienced teams like the Padres, D-Backs and Phillies that the Nats will have to contend with. History tells us that it takes somewhere between 83 and 89 wins to get that third Wild Card spot. Right now, the Phillies and D-Backs are on pace for 85. It is worth pointing out that the Nats have the tiebreaker over the D-Backs.
To get to that mark, the Nationals will need to truly make a run down the stretch. With their offense, you would think that they have the capability to do that. After all, this team does lead all of baseball in runs, homers and steals, joining an illustrious group.
However, the Nats have not really shown the ability to go on long win streaks. The longest win streak of the season is only 4 games, and they only have one sweep all year. This just feels like a team that will hover around .500, but never go on that run because that is who this team has been all season long.
After years of terrible teams, a mediocre one looks amazing in contrast. However, this still is a deeply flawed baseball team. For one, the pitching is not where it needs to be. While the Nats could make moves at the deadline for pitching, this staff is more than just one arm away. There has also been plenty of talk about the Nats trading one of their best arms in Foster Griffin.
While you can make a very strong argument that trading Griffin is good process, it would also be waving the white flag. We have seen how vital Foster Griffin is to this team. He is not someone who can easily be replaced, especially in this pitching starved organization.
This will be something Paul Toboni has to keep in mind at the deadline. There have been conflicting reports on a Foster Griffin extension, but if that could happen, it would be fantastic. However, if that cannot be done, it is likely that Griffin is moved, and it would probably be the right move if you get a good return.
These last four games have shown us that the Nats are just probably not quite ready to go on a run. They are still too young and green. The pitching has not even been the biggest problem in this stretch. Lately, the Nationals have been putrid in high leverage situations and have not been playing clean baseball.
It is probably too premature to say this outright, but last night was a strong indication that this team does not have what it takes to make the playoffs. They were too sloppy, not good enough with RISP and got outfoxed by the Braves. It really looked like a veteran team who has seen it all against a group of green youngsters.
At just 2.5 games back, the Nats are still in the hunt. However, they need to start winning games again, or they will play themselves out of the race. It is painful, but the Nats should trade pieces such as Foster Griffin and Luis Garcia Jr. if the right offer presents itself. If the Nats can snag a controllable reliever though, I would be for that in addition to selling.
I would not trade CJ Abrams though. The goal for this front office should be to do whatever it can to win in 2027 and 2028. This season has shown us that the Nats are close. They just need a lot more pitching and a little bit more experience. Once the offseason rolls around, it is time for the Nats to start going all in.
However, it is starting to look like buying could be a futile exercise in 2026. 2.5 games does not seem like a lot, but with all the teams the Nats need to pass, it is harder than it looks. 2026 is just the appetizer, these next few years will be the entree.
