Now that the first 12 games on the 2026-27 season are in the books, it’s time to evaluate where the Colorado Avalanche’s start has taken them to their current 6-5-1 record in the standings. There has been a handful of ups and downs to reflect on during this quiet week of the schedule before taking on New Jersey in a rematch tomorrow night.
Is there anything surprising about how the early season has gone for the Avalanche?
Jackie: Let’s start with some positives: the third line of all new players has been a pleasant surprise. That being Jaden Schwartz, Fedor Svechkov and TJ Hughes.
For years the Avs have been in search of a third line that has an identity and has enough chemistry with production to stay together, so far it’s been encouraging with each forward scoring at least twice.
On the flip side, the way the Avs have degraded analytically is a surprise even with the downgrades to the roster. A 47.24% expected goals on the season, which puts Colorado at 21st in the league, is not what you’d expect from a team that’s been analytic darlings for years. Yes, 12 games is still a small sample size but coupled with the competitive and results-based inconsistencies we have seen, there are some emerging red flags. One, that even with some unkind numbers the team leads the league in shooting percentage at 14.23%, with 39 goals scored on 26 expected at 5v5. The Avs are a team that generally outscores their expected by a small margin but at nearly double means a hard regression is coming and that they are not as great at generating offense as they seem. They have also given up 24 goals on 29 expected against, which also means as bad as the defense has been at times they should have been scored upon more. That all adds up to a PDO of 1.054, the second highest in the NHL, which means the Avs are lucky to be where they are in the standings given how they’ve played. Real improvements need to be made moving forward, not just working out of a mental rut.
Jess: I’m with Jackie, the third line has been a very pleasant surprise to watch; all of them have gelled way better than I honestly thought they would through this point in the season, and they’ve worked really well together overall. I think TJ Hughes has been the one that I’ve been the most pleasantly surprised by of the three; he’s been really good for this team so far and has certainly settled in as of late.
Adrian: I am a bit surprised that the Avalanche have been so on-again, off-again to start the season. They very much feel like a team that can outscore its problems, but there are problems. Mostly in the defending with effort and consistency department.
How much of a concern are the losses at this point?
Jess: I don’t think they’re too concerning when looking at the bigger picture of the now 84-game regular season. When looking at them individually, though, there are a couple of the losses, and specifically the play and effort in those games, that stand out as concerning if they don’t get fixed early on and instead become a chronic issue throughout the season. In the Nashville game last night and the Philadelphia game, there was just a lack of urgency from the Avs when they found themselves down by multiple goals throughout the game and seemingly a lack of willingness to will themselves back into the game. Specifically, looking at last night: Nashville was on the second leg of a back-to-back, and at one point, they were threatening to double you up in shots when they were up by multiple goals late in that game. Obviously, that habit is not a good one to get into at all. That being said, however, Colorado has only played 12 games this year so far, which is a small sample size when looking at the bigger picture. If this habit perpetuates and we’re still seeing similar play around the 20-25 game mark, I’ll be much more concerned.
Adrian: I’m still not overly concerned. The Avalanche are operating like a talented group that hasn’t quite committed to engagement early in the regular season. I don’t think they will slide enough to be in a “too-little, too-late” type scenario, and that they will find a focus by the new year.
Jackie: Everyone’s level of concern and how they define it are different. I do still expect Colorado to make the playoffs and if they have to fight for it might actually benefit them as a group. Big picture, though, I have not been a fan of what has been done to the roster and the cracks are starting to show. Just how impactful that is on the near-term remains to be seen.
Who has shined the most thus far?
Jess: Artturi Lehkonen has been absolutely crushing it so far, which makes me so happy, as he’s been one of my favorite players to watch for a while. This start was probably expected, as he’s in a contract year, so I do expect it to taper off a bit as we go on, but it’s been awesome to watch him pop off early this season, and I really hope they can keep him when all is said and done.
Adrian: I’m with Jess, Artturi Lehkonen’s 10 goals in 12 games and seven game point streak are hard to ignore. Lehkonen might be playing himself out of Colorado at this point. If he ends up a 30 goal 80 point sort of forward he’d likely find the more appropriate wage elsewhere.
Jackie: Lehkonen has always had a bit of an unexpected magic quality to him but scoring 10 goals on 22 shots (that’s a 45.5 shooting percentage) is firmly in the impossible territory. The Avs have certainly benefitted from this windfall of production from him, which has masked some of the problems in the early stretch for this team, though I’m very concerned about when and how hard the regression is going to hit. Nathan MacKinnon deserves a mention too for his 21 points landing him top five in league scoring, though I do not believe he’s played his best hockey at all.
What upcoming game are you looking forward to?
Jackie: I’m interested to see how the rematch with the Toronto Maple Leafs in a couple weeks up in Canada goes since that game wasn’t Colorado’s finest showing at Ball Arena. Close proximity rematches tend to lead to the opposite result so the Avs should have success in that game but how they manage defending Toronto’s star players will be worth keying in on.
Jess: I’m most interested in Colorado’s games against the St. Louis Blues on December 29 and against the Seattle Kraken on January 8, as those are the ones I’ll get to go to in person when I’m back in Colorado for the holidays!
Adrian: I’ll be curious to see how the Avalanche perform Wednesday against the New Jersey Devils. No time like the present with the string of up-and-down performances, and I’d expect them to show a bit of life. Winning fixes everything.
Jackie: The rematch prophecy also points to a bounce back game against the Devils.
