As we’ve discussed before, we’ve built a consensus list of the top 100 free agents for the 2026 offseason, which now has 22 separate rankings in the database. If you’re wondering how they stack, below is an update:
Based on the data, most analysts have Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones ranked ahead of Green Bay Packers backup Malik Willis going into
free agency, and Willis is actually closer to former Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers than Jones. With that being said, hype is starting to build around Willis as we approach the opening of the tampering period window on March 9th.
NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal listed Willis as the number one free agent in the 2026 crop in his initial top 101 free agent rankings, which was counted toward our consensus free agent rankings. Here’s what he said about Willis:
I see him as the most dynamic quarterback in football as a runner, and his tape in Green Bay showed incredible growth as a passer over his two years with Matt LaFleur. Despite his limited sample size, Willis jumped to the top spot of this ranking based on the same logic that applies to the NFL draft: If a potential franchise quarterback is good enough to be ranked in the top five of a list like this, then he should be placed first, by virtue of the position. The ceiling is the roof.
In a follow-up to Rosenthal’s article, he sat down with insider Ian Rapoport for a podcast, who agreed that Willis could get paid in the $30 million t0 $35 million per year range this offseason.
If that’s true, Willis made himself a lot of money in 2025, despite only throwing 35 passes, mostly coming in losses against the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens.
Back in November, before Willis saw significant action in 2025, Tom Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported on contract projections for the Packers’ upcoming free agents. Prior to that two-game stretch, it was the belief of people in the know that Willis would hover somewhere in the $5 million to $8 million per year range.
“Up until recently, there were very few backup quarterbacks in the NFL who received north of $5 million per year. Even veteran quarterbacks with starting experience, like Jameis Winston ($4 million) and Jimmy Garoppolo ($3 million), came short of that number.
Recently, the market has moved, though. Tyson Bagent of the Chicago Bears, who threw all of two passes last season, signed a two-year, $10 million extension a couple of weeks ago. Prior to his new contract, the only backup quarterbacks earning north of $4 million per year were Marcus Mariota ($8 million), Jacoby Brissett ($6.25 million), Zach Wilson ($6 million), Jarrett Stidham ($6 million) and Tyrod Taylor ($6 million) going into the 2025 regular season.”
There’s a huge gap between $10 million to $18 million over two years and $60 million to $70 million. Assuming both Silverstein and Rapoport’s projections are correct at these two different time periods, Willis’ performance in 2025 was worth about $1.2 million to $1.7 million per pass toward his free agency stock. Pretty impressive.
Last week, NFL.com’s Kevin Patra covered players who “could be misvalued” in free agency. Willis was his top player “who could be overpriced.”
The quarterback market in 2026 isn’t pretty. There are few veteran options that offer much upside. Most are the tired trove we’ve seen plenty of through the years — Russell Wilson, Mitchell Trubisky, Marcus Mariota and Kenny Pickett, among others. Add in the fact that the draft is expected to be sparse in for-sure QB talent, and it’s an ugly year to need a quality passer. In that setting, Willis sits as an intriguing candidate. The former Titans third-round pick played well in Green Bay last season, completing 85.7% of 35 pass attempts for 422 yards and three TDs in four games (one start). Willis also showcased his rushing ability, generating 123 yards on 22 carries with two scores. He looked leaps and bounds better than his scattershot early-career struggles. But, was that a byproduct of a good offense under Matt LaFleur and a small sample size? I can’t fault whatever team takes a shot on Willis. His upside is better than most available signal-callers. Yet, with just six career starts, Willis is still far from a sure thing. Handing him the reins, particularly if there are significant guarantees, would be a gamble.
In his end-of-season press conference, Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst essentially conceded that Willis will be playing for another team in 2026, stating that he should have plenty of options. That doesn’t mean that the Packers don’t have skin in the game with Willis this offseason, though. If he earns a contract north of $20 million per year, he will almost certainly earn Green Bay a third-round compensatory pick in 2027. For perspective, Dan Moore Jr., a tackle who signed for $21 million per year last offseason, leaving the Pittsburgh Steelers ended up netting Pittsburgh a top-100 selection in this draft via the comp pick formula.
Packers left tackle Rasheed Walker, considered to be a top-10 free agent in this class, should also get a contract similar to Moore’s. Some even project him to hit around $25 million per year, depending on the source.
Teams are only allowed to acquire four compensatory draft picks in a single class, with the highest possible pick being a third-round pick. Green Bay could always offset these picks by adding free agents of their own, but if they stand pat this offseason, they could come away with two extra top-100 selections in 2027, which will help offset the loss of losing back-to-back first-round picks in the Micah Parsons trade.
As of now, here’s how the Packers’ top free agents rank in our consensus board:
- #9: Rasheed Walker, LT
- #17: Malik Willis, QB
- #24: Romeo Doubs, WR
- #40: Quay Walker, LB
- #151: Kingsley Enagbare, DE
- #160: Sean Rhyan, C
- #340: John FitzPatrick, TE
We’ll have to see how things change with the quarterback market if players like Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray or Kirk Cousins become available (or if Daniel Jones/Aaron Rodgers even hit the market), but I’m cautiously optimistic that Willis can clear that $20 million bar in 2026.
For what it’s worth, the agents I’ve been able to talk to this offseason have listed the usual suspects, the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins, as teams to watch out for in the Willis race. The logic is that there are Willis ties to both programs. The Cardinals are led by Mike LaFleur, brother of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, and LaFleur’s offensive coordinator in Arizona is Nathaniel Hackett, who was in Green Bay as an analyst last year. The Dolphins are now Green Bay South with head coach Jeff Hafley, the Packers’ defensive coordinator from 2024 to 2025, and general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan, who has been in Green Bay since 2004, leading their program.
