Heading in to 2025, we were generally very down on Ryan Clifford. The top-line results and power production were decent, sure, but striking out nearly 30% of the time with a very passive approach is not a good sign for long-term major league production. It seemed like Clifford’s hit tool would ultimately limit his ability to be a meaningful reward for the Justin Verlander / Max Scherzer salary dump trades in 2023.
Fast forward a year. Clifford is now the only piece remaining from those moves, but
he’s back on track to be a potentially key long-term contributor. Significant improvements to Clifford’s swing rate at hittable pitches and in-zone contact have his hit-tool projection back towards “average or slightly below” rather than “fake and not viable.” Indeed his Triple-A contact metrics were actually above average in his 34-game sample at the end of the year, as were his approach and damage figures. The end result was a .237/.356/.470 line with 29 HR and a 137 wRC+ across 579 PA in the upper minors.
It is, of course, a little three-true-outcome-ish, and the lack of truly high-end raw power may be somewhat limiting. On the flip side, give a dude with a good eye at the plate, a penchant for pulled fly balls, and above average damage on contact an average hit tool and baby, you’ve got a stew going. Couple that with pretty good defense at first base and the ability to at least cogently stand in the outfield (he’s not good out there, but he’s not Lucas Duda or Daniel Murphy-level bad) and that’s an exciting prospect. Indeed, Baseball Prospectus has Clifford back on their top-101 at #86.
Maybe you still have doubts, and that’s fair. Clifford still needs some consolidation time in Triple-A in all likelihood, where he’ll need to continue demonstrating real hit tool improvements to get full buy in. But if you want another data point to build confidence, consider how the Mets handled their roster this offseason.
It was clear that the Mets did not have a ton of interest in giving Pete Alonso a long term deal. The majority of the justification for that is tied to Alonso himself, a poor bet to age well who wound up signing an above-market deal in Baltimore that the Mets are frankly better off without. That said, an eye towards the future was almost certainly a part of this calculus as well. Internal belief in Clifford (and/or Jacob Reimer) makes it a lot easier to let a long-time fan favorite walk away.
Put another way, the Mets are telling us something here. They didn’t trade Clifford (or Reimer or A.J. Ewing) for an arm, they traded Jett Williams. They didn’t seriously entertain a long-term contract for a corner infield bat, they prioritized limited term on their signings. They haven’t brought in a primary DH, they’ve left runway for internal options to compete for and win playing time.
Does this mean we should automatically believe Clifford is going to be a star, or even a good major leaguer? No, of course not, teams mis-evaluate their own guys all the time, even the smart ones. But there’s real signal to the fact that after a season of clear improvements and strong performance, the Mets have seemingly built in ample runway for Clifford to get a major league chance this season. If he does, he might indeed be the first baseman of the future.
