In any season, but especially in a college football season in 2025, the old axiom of “they don’t ask how, they ask how many” is the correct approach to football victories in the SEC.
The talent is more spread out so that we don’t have dreadnaught programs like Alabama and Georgia rolling blue-chippers out three-deep, but that means that every other team has a former stud high school player that can perform at a high level and absolutely wreck your season if you let them.
Take, for example, Auburn:
a flagging program that has won five SEC games in three years under Hugh Freeze. That program is currently field an all-time elite defense and their scatter-shot offense features one of the more dangerous receivers in the country as well as a dangerously mobile, former top quarterback.
I know, at some point, what you were in high school doesn’t matter but, in doing my previews for teams I can absolutely see the product of the NIL/portal era where bad teams can field former blue-chippers at 30% of their positions.
Welcome to parity! It’s great.
It also means that any team can take you down on any night, as was the case this past Saturday. On paper Mizzou should have been challenged for three quarters and then win by 10. Instead, they found themselves in a dogfight that extended the game to a second overtime.
I said it in my preview and said it on the podcast: it was going to be an ugly game, not only because Auburn played a style that could stymie what Mizzou wanted to do, but also because they had the talent to execute.
This wasn’t a “win your clunkers” sort of game that I’ve cited before. This is “win a conference road game in any way possible” sort of game. And Mizzou did it.
Here’s the advanced box score:
Want to hear something wild? Auburn was the better team on Saturday. They had higher success rate, connected on more explosive plays, generated an additional turnover, ran the ball better, and put themselves in more manageable down-and-distance situations. But, in matchups like these, the games are often won in the margins, and Mizzou’s better starting field position and higher points per scoring opportunity – as well as fewer special teams miscues – meant they did enough to steal a victory with a 26% postgame win expectancy.
When Missouri Has the Ball
The good news is that Mizzou will not be facing the 2nd-best run defense in the country again in the regular season. The bad news is that they’ll be facing several other Top 20 run defenses and the book is out on how to stop this offense: crowd the line to cloud your pressure since Beau Pribula struggles at times to recognize it, play your safeties close since Mizzou will either run it or hit a quick pass, and just don’t worry about deep shots since Pribula won’t take them/can’t hit them. Forcing Ahmad Hardy to be Superman worked in the non-conference but it’s not working in the SEC and so Eli Drinkwitz and Kirby Moore need to gameplan with that new defensive detail identified to take advantage of it and put Beau in better positions. a 32.5% rushing success rate won’t cut it, especially with your star running back is at 29.2%.
Also…I don’t think this offensive line is very good. I said it back in Week 4 in my “hot takes” portion of Pregamin’. Here’s my proof:
And against Alabama and Auburn that has shown to be true. Now, I know “offense struggles against Top 10 defense” is not an unusual development, but I think Ahmad Hardy made this offensive line look a lot better than it really was, and when you go up against SEC defenders, it’s harder to pull off the “stiff arm three dudes to death and run for 50 yards” move. It got to the point Saturday where Mizzou actually got away from its zone blocking scheme and started gap blocking, just so that they could for sure get a hat on a hat…and it still wasn’t working. Vanderbilt’s defense is not as elite as Bama or Auburn but its still very good. And A&M and Oklahoma are elite!
But, to end this portion on a high note…Donovan Olugbode needs more playing time. Now. Find a way to get your highest success rate receiver with the best yards per target on the field! It helps you win games! I promise!
Throw The Dang Ball
Goal: 43% success rate through the air.
Actual: 43.2% success rate through the air.
Winner: Missouri
Generate Explosive Plays
Goal: At least 9 explosive plays.
Actual: 6 explosive plays.
Winner: Auburn
Finish Your Dang Drives
Goal: At least 5 scoring opportunities created and at least 3.4 points per scoring opportunity (17 points)
Actual: 7 scoring opportunities created, 3.3 points per scoring opportunity (23 points)
Winner: Missouri (close enough, especially for a win!)
When Auburn Has The Ball
As much as Jackson Arnold was the root of Auburn’s passing woes, he was also the root of their rushing success, managing a 50% success rate against Mizzou’s elite rush defense. His mobility created positive plays and helped generate the few explosives that Auburn nailed throughout the game, as Mizzou’s secondary – specifically Toriano Pride – would abandon their coverage to help in run defense only to watch a pass sail over the defense. Now, if he’s being coached to do that PLEASE STOP WE NEED HIM IN PASS COVERAGE but, if it’s his instincts, then he needs some more coaching on where his value is in the defense.
Still, when Mizzou wasn’t getting sucked out of coverage, they were effective at pass defense. It’s just, well, five to six times per game they aren’t, and in games like this, that’s enough to keep things close.
Stop The Run
Goal: 42% success rate allowed on the ground.
Actual: 45.7% success allowed rate on the ground.
Winner: Auburn
Eliminate Cam Coleman
Goal: Hold Coleman to under 6 targets, 2 catches, and 40 yards.
Actual: 9 targets, 6 catches, 109 yards.
Winner: Auburn
The Little Things
Up front: the official box score lists Beau Pribula fumbling at some point. I watched the game three times and didn’t see anything that I would count as a fumble. But I put it up there anyway. Whatever.
Auburn held advantages in yards per play and turnovers but Mizzou did better in average starting field position and points per scoring opportunity. Really though, the advantage in the Little Things was special teams, specifically field goal kicking. Poor Alex McPherson was thrust out there four times after having a laundry list of medical procedures done to him over the past year and he missed three kicks. If he makes one more of those Auburn probably wins. That sucks for him. And shame on Hugh Freeze for forcing him out there. You can’t find literally anyone else? Or recognize his struggles and try something else?
On the demerit front: hey, Nick Rodriguez. Buddy. Love the talent, love the drive…not a big fan of the extra curriculars on Saturday. Might need to let him go into the time out corner for a little but to cool off and let Triston Newson get some more snaps. For at least one game, anyway.
Also, Auburn’s receivers had four drops, two from Cam Coleman. Arnold isn’t the best passer but his receivers do him no favors.
Extra Points
Auburn was the more efficient team in the second half which helped them pull away. And then overtime hit and they forgot how to football and lost. The college game is wild, folks.
Mizzou was not great in 3rd-down situations but was still better than what they did against Alabama. The issue was that they had such a low yards per play rate on 1st-down (3.3) that their 3rd-downs were averaging 9.5 yards to gain, while Auburn was able to keep things more manageable (6 yards per average on 1st-down, an average of 3rd-and-5 for the game).
AND YET. Mizzou was 8-17 on 3rd-downs, Auburn 6-16. Wild.
Like I said above, Auburn came alive in the 2nd half and then promptly stunk out the junk in both overtime periods. 6.9 yards per play in the 2nd half, -2.4 yards per play in Overtime. How is that possible?
Oh yeah. Zion Young. That’s how it’s possible.
Do you know another way you can overcome tough 3rd-down scenarios? Avoid 3rd-down all together! Hardy was bottled up for the game but Josh Manning and Donovan Olugbode exploded in production, generating 5 1st-downs each, most of them occurring in early down situations. Kevin Coleman wasn’t loud but he was clutch, generating 4 1st-downs via the pass. Also, I got to finally add “Beau Pribula throwing to Ahmad Hardy” on my 1st-down tracker. Huzzah.
Conclusion
It’s not going to get any easier. Mizzou now heads to Nashville where #10 Vanderbilt and College Gameday await. Vandy’s defense is a Top 40 unit which is noticeably lighter than Bama or Auburn, but Diego Pavia and that offense are Top 10 and always dangerous.
Remember, when it comes to road SEC games, it doesn’t matter HOW you win, it matters THAT you win. Go do it!
