When betting odds opened for this week of college football, Mizzou’s home date with South Carolina seemed like a dud waiting to happen.
What was potentially a Top 25 matchup with potential College Football Playoff implications was spoiled after South Carolina laid a big old Gamecock egg in Columbia Least against Vanderbilt. Complicating matters was the health of LaNorris Sellers, a potential No. 1 overall pick in next year’s NFL Draft. Sellers was knocked out of the game against Vandy with a concussion,
and those don’t tend to go away super quickly. With a backup QB set to face one of the game’s best defenses, the lines were set close to two scores and that seemed to be that.
A few days later, however, and bettors are looking at this game with some more interest. News out of South Carolina is that the team is optimistic about Sellers’ chances of playing on Saturday, and that line has crept toward Pick ‘Em territory, with Mizzou listed as a -3 favorite at the moment. The big game is back on folks!
Except there’s one problem with the narrative that everyone, including Mizzou fans, were pushing until this week: This isn’t really as close of a matchup (statistically) as we think it might be.
If we go by SP+ — which, c’mon, we always do around these parts — this game actually looks more like a potential roadblock for Mizzou and an opportunity for South Carolina to bolster their resume. The current rankings paint a stark contrast between the two teams, with Missouri sitting at No. 11 overall with the country’s 17th best offense and 18th best defense. According to Bill Connelly, Mizzou’s actual performance this season rates them even higher — they’d be 9th in the country if just this season’s performances were taken into account.
South Carolina on the other hand? Things are looking a little worse for wear under the hood. The Gamecocks are the No. 48 nationally, with the 26th ranked defense (good!) and the 71st ranked offense (not good!) And yet the general consensus before last week was that Cocky was a Top 15 team while Mizzou was barely good enough to scrape the Top 25. In a truthful world, the two teams’ reputations might be flipped (and even that would be generous to South Carolina.)
I’m 388 words into this column, though, and it’s all reading a bit like bulletin board material, right? “South Carolina isn’t actually that good, Mizzou should handle them, blah blah blah.” That’s not really what I’m trying to say, though I don’t totally disbelieve it either. Shane Beamer, eat your heart out, I guess.
For the past two years, Mizzou has adopted “Something to Prove” as its program mantra. It’s a mantra that has paid dividends, with the Tigers going a collective 21-5 over those two seasons and boosting themselves into shouting distance of the upper-middle class of the SEC. Under Eli Drinkwitz, the Tigers have recruited and acted like a big boy program. And for the past two years, they’ve played like one too.
Still as we’ve come to learn over the past 15 years, it’s hard to culturally break your way into the SEC. No matter how well Mizzou has played this season, they can still be leap-frogged by Vanderbilt (No. 27 in SP+, by the way) after one big win. And that’s Vanderbilt! Mizzou has been an SEC institution for the better part of 20 years, yet they’re still treated as an outsider both regionally and nationally.
This weekend, however, could go some way toward changing that.
If LaNorris Sellers plays on Saturday, a host of eyes who might’ve otherwise looked away will fix their gaze on Columbia, Mo., to see a future NFL quarterback take the stage. These are people who haven’t seen Beau Pribula spin the football yet in what has been a masterful start to the season. They might’ve heard about the galloping antics of Ahmad Hardy, but it’s doubtful they’ve seen them live. They haven’t seen Kevin Coleman flawlessly take the No. 3 mantle from LB3 or Brett Norfleet hurdle defenders or Khalil Jacobs scream into the backfield or Zion Young pound his blocker into the dirt or Josiah Trotter patrol the middle of the field like a madman. Mizzou is, by reputation, an afterthought. Even when they go two years in a row with excellent teams, they’re seen as a blip on the radar.
But against a foundational SEC team that closed in on a Top 10 spot early in the season? With a surefire NFL QB? Beat up on them and suddenly people might start to change their tune.
That’s not to say that beating South Carolina alone — dominantly or otherwise — would be solely responsible for the winds of change sweeping the Tigers to a higher status of college football program. There’s still a lot of season left to play after this game, and you can argue that wins against schools like Alabama and Georgia are what the Tigers really need to elevate themselves.
But as we’ve said multiple times through the opening weekends of this campaign: you can only play who’s in front of you. And on Saturday, the Tigers have in front of them a well-regarded team with a hot coach and a shiny quarterback. And they’re looking very, very gettable.
Is say, “gettable,” in a light sense, too. I understand that this isn’t the type of game Eli Drinkwitz plays, but the Tigers are good enough that they could reasonably come out and hammer the Gamecocks. I mean really beat the pants off of them. I’m sure that’s something we’d all prefer to see, even if we’ll probably have to clench our way through three-and-a-half quarters and a few missed field goals before the Tigers eventually put Cocky down. The former would earn some brownie points, but a victory on the board is all that matters at the end of the day.
So with the Mayor’s Cup approaching and the betting line shrinking every day, the narrative around this game will undoubtedly be cast as one of two SEC dark horses going at it for an outside chance at a College Football Playoff bid. Mizzou has earned the right to be considered more than that, but that sort of respect isn’t given in college football. You have to earn it and then earn it again… and then take it by force if you have to.
Saturday gives Mizzou the perfect opportunity to take it for themselves.
