The San Diego Padres are down to four for their magic number to clinch a playoff spot. Any combination of losses and wins for the Padres versus their challengers for the Wild Card will result in a champagne and beer party for the Friars. Hopefully, this weekend.
With the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers both continuing to win, the Padres most likely head to Chicago for their first playoff game in the Wild Card Series against the Cubs. With a week-and-a-half left in the season, the Padres will
be lining up their starting rotation for the first playoff series very soon. As the rotation stands now, the last games of the season will feature Yu Darvish, Michael King and Nick Pivetta against the Arizona Diamondbacks for the last series of the regular season.
That would mean Randy Vasquez starting the first game of the playoffs. It is unlikely that will be the plan. Following conventional wisdom and baseball strategy, the best starter on the staff should be used to begin the series and is then followed by the next best pitchers on the staff.
Pivetta and King
With the recent return of Michael King off the injured list, it would be natural to assume that he would follow team ace/stopper Nick Pivetta for the one and two spots. Unfortunately, based on his recent struggles with command, King is not fine-tuned at this point and he has only one or two starts left to get there. Assuming that his between starts work and his next start for the team will help with his sharpness, I’ll put him as the second starter.
Pivetta is a slam dunk decision to begin the series. He is the only consistent pitcher in the starting rotation and the only pitcher who has been able to regularly get past five innings in his starts. With his 2.73 ERA in 171.1 innings pitched, Pivetta has 13 wins to five losses and has pitched to a 2.47 ERA since the start of the second half of the season.
Dylan Cease
The well-known struggles of Dylan Cease have resulted in a 4.59 ERA in 157 innings pitched. He has shown that his ability to get hitters out dwindles after going through the lineup just one time in most of his starts. There is also the memory of Cease and his ineffectiveness in the 2024 playoffs to consider when deciding who would follow Pivetta and King.
Yu Darvish
Darvish, who has been so reliable in past playoff seasons, has struggled since his return from the injured list. Despite multiple starts since July 7, Darvish is not sharp. His 5.63 ERA in 62.1 innings pitched indicate his inability to reach his previous dominance as a starter. It’s likely that losing so much time early, as well as changing his delivery to accommodate his injured elbow, has resulted in Darvish not being able to employ his normal routine in preparing to pitch. He is known for his reliance on preparation and routine and this season has not given him the ability to follow his normal approach with either. It is also possible that the wear and tear of all his professional years is catching up to him.
Randy Vasquez
The last name on the list is Randy Vasquez. Since being acquired from the New York Yankees in the Juan Soto trade, Vasquez has routinely outperformed his underlying numbers, but consistently underperforms his ability. He has a six-pitch mix, but fails to execute his pitches often and that results in hits and walks that limit his ability to stay in games or be dominant. The amazing thing is that he has a 3.72 ERA in 123.1 innings pitched, but his lack of command is reflected in his 49 walks to 71 strikeouts. There are usually lots of runners on base during his starts, but he occasionally flashes his ability to dominate and that just teases who he could be.
The question remains. Who do the Padres choose past Nick Pivetta to pitch in a best-of-three series in Chicago?
San Diego Union-Tribune beat writer Kevin Acee provided a chart in his daily newsletter to outline the current situation:
By using the off-day on Sept. 25 (Thursday), they can reorder the rotation as well as use either Nestor Cortes or JP Sears to provide extra rest. Cortes is on the IL, but is rehabbing at the Padres facility in Arizona and is scheduled to throw to hitters on Friday (per manager Mike Shildt) and Sears is in El Paso with the Chihuahuas staying tuned up, if needed.
That flexibility would give the Friars the option to line the rotation up as they want with Pivetta and King being the presumptive first two out of the gate. If the third game is needed, there will be a tough decision.
Giving the ball to Cease would probably be the best option. He could then be piggybacked with Vasquez or even Darvish, depending on how each is feeling or performing at the end of the season. The other option would be to have bullpen help available at the first sign of Cease faltering and then piece it together after that.
Either way they go, the Padres have question marks after Pivetta. Hopefully, they will have a rested bullpen for the Wild Card Series and hope the starters they choose can rise to the occasion.
