The Dallas Wings (23-16) clinched a WNBA playoff berth with Tuesday’s 96-78 win over the Portland Fire. It’s a remarkable turnaround after getting shoved into the locker for two seasons on their way to a combined 19-65 record spanning 2024 and 2025. No one should take anything away from the team’s progression here.
But a recent skid across late July and early August has the Wings in danger of being reduced to first-round dinner fare in the team’s first playoff appearance since 2023, when Dallas beat
the Atlanta Dream in the first round before bowing out to the eventual WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces in the semifinal round.
That 2023 run was the first time since the franchise moved to North Texas that the Wings have escaped the first round of the playoffs. In three of its four other playoff appearances (2017, 2018, 2021), Dallas was eliminated in what were then single-game first-round matchups.
In 2022, the Wings dropped two of three to the Connecticut Sun in the first round, as Arike Ogunbowale missed the first two games and came off the bench in the third after suffering an abdominal injury late in the regular season. Marina Mabrey was Dallas’ leading scorer in the Game 3 loss that sent the Wings home that year. In 2023, the Wings (22-18) finished fourth in the WNBA regular-season standings during a year when only four teams held a winning percentage above .500.
Suffice to say that the team’s playoff history is neither long nor illustrious. So, is there any hope of avoiding one of the two monsters atop the WNBA standings this year in the first round? The Wings are a combined 0-7 against the Minnesota Lynx (31-8) and the Golden State Valkyries (26-11), who hold a firm grip on first and second position as the regular season begins to wind down.
The Wings have five games left on the regular schedule and just one before the nearly three-week break for 2026 FIBA World Cup play. All five of Dallas’ remaining opponents, including the Sun (10-27), whom the Wings host on Sunday, have losing records and are out of playoff contention. That would be a big advantage for Dallas in the home stretch as the Wings are just a half-game back of both the Washington Mystics (23-15) and the New York Liberty (23-15) going into play Wednesday.
The Mystics have a favorable schedule in their final six games as well, but they do have one clearly losable game left on the slate: Sunday, Sept. 20 at the Indiana Fever, who currently sit fifth in playoff positioning. It’s a different story for the Liberty. They could be the team that ends up falling into the eighth and final playoff slot at the end of the regular season. Their final six games include Thursday’s game against the Valkyries, another at the Lynx after the break, and a pair at home against the Atlanta Dream to wrap the season up.
In order to climb from eighth to sixth and avoid Minnesota and Golden State in the first round, the Wings need to win out against the Sun, the Los Angeles Sparks, beat the Phoenix Mercury twice and get one more win at the Seattle Storm to wrap the season up. That would put Dallas on an eight-game win streak headed into the playoffs. Then, they need the Mystics to lose at least one of their final six, while the Liberty’s situation should resolve itself along the way.
Eight-game winning streaks don’t happen on demand in the WNBA, though. Sure, the Wings have compiled a 16-1 record against teams currently outside the playoff race, but the final five will still be a test. Phoenix has shown an ability to jump up and knock off contending teams this year. Seattle is a talented young bunch. Dallas only beat Connecticut by three in their first meeting, only thanks to a big fourth-quarter comeback.
If they’re able to pull it off and slip into sixth by the time the regular season wraps up, I like the Wings’ chances in a three-game series against the Las Vegas Aces. The Aces, the Fever and the Liberty are the only winning teams this season that Dallas has a winning record against. Dallas announced its presence on the WNBA scene early this season with a 95-87 prove-it win over the Aces on May 28 before shoving Las Vegas in a locker, 96-66, on June 15.
The Wings can’t afford to count chickens any more than any other team in the WNBA playoff race, but they may have the easiest path to the six-seed with five games to play. Keep an eye on any developments from the Mystics and the Liberty as the regular season comes to a close.
