July 4th has come and gone, and it’s time to officially kick-start your fantasy football draft prep for 2026, if you haven’t done so already. I’m here to help you with that. The beginning of draft season for season-long redraft leagues is only about six weeks away.
Today I’m sharing 25 random thoughts for the upcoming season of fantasy football. Some are profound, some are hunches, and some are more like intrusive thoughts that I can’t shake as the season approaches.
You can find all my fantasy columns
by following this link. Recent pieces include facts and stats for each of the main fantasy position, the best rookie landing spots, and the biggest fantasy question for each NFL team. And I’m just getting started. I’ll have more fantasy football draft prep pieces to share in the coming weeks, including rankings and tiers, sleepers, and players to target and avoid at average draft position (ADP), so keep it right here at Big Blue View.
Fantasy rankings referenced in the column are for Half-point PPR, on a points per game basis, and exclude Week 18.
Random Fantasy Football thoughts for the 2026 season, as of July 5, 2026:
- It’s been 19 long years since a running back repeated as the fantasy RB1 (LaDanian Tomlinson, 2006-2007). Christian McCaffrey already has three RB1 finishes to his name in his brilliant nine-year career, including last season. But like Saquon Barkley a year ago, CMC is coming off a season where he led the NFL in total touches (he logged 450, including playoffs). Saquon fell off considerably last season. Will CMC follow? His heavy 2025 usage, plus his age (30) and injury history, suggest regression, and that someone will unseat him. McCaffrey is currently ranked as the RB3 and overall player No. 7 in ADP, so he’s a huge risk-reward play in Round 1.
2. More than half of the teams in the NFL have a new offensive coordinator and/or play caller this season. I have thoughts on each situation, which are too lengthy to share here. I’ll just say this: I think you’ll see overall offensive improvement with a number of teams, including the Chargers, Raiders, Eagles, Titans, and Ravens, among others.
3. Don’t sleep on Jayden Daniels. That’s the entire thought.
4. Kyle Pitts has played five seasons, but is still only 25. Travis Kelce didn’t have a 1,000-yard season until he was 27. The Falcons have a very unproven receiver corps after Drake London. I’ve been sucked in by this thirst trap before, but I think Pitts is finally coming into his own and will deliver a Top-5 tight end season in 2026. Wait, did I really just say that?
5. Remember Mark Andrews? The guy who used to be a perennial Top-5 tight end? You’ll definitely remember him by the end of this coming season, after he rings up double-digit TDs for the third time in his career.
6. I have no idea how to rank Jacksonville’s receivers. They’re this year’s version of the 2023-2025 Packers.
7. I’m nervous about the health of Malik Nabers, and probably won’t have many shares of him. With Wan’Dale Robinson gone, an abundance of targets are up for grabs. Isaiah Likely should emerge as a favorite target for Jaxson Dart and is a logical tight end breakout candidate.
8. Michael Pittman is no longer in Indianapolis, Romeo Doubs is no longer in Green Bay, and Mike Evans is no longer in Tampa. That’s an awful lot of vacated snaps, routes run, and targets from recent seasons for each of those teams. In related news, three slot merchants who I like a lot as middle round values in 2026, and especially in Full-point PPR, are Josh Downs, Jayden Reed, and Chris Godwin. Godwin in particular should come cheap.
9. We have to talk about the Dak Prescott even-odd injury year thing. Dak’s missed starts per season since 2019 reads like an EKG:
2019 – 0
2020 – 11
2021 – 1
2022 – 5
2023 – 0
2024 – 9
2025 – 0
2026 – ?
10. The Dolphins are going to be bad, and maybe even historically so, but I’m in on Malik Willis as a high-end QB2 with upside. If he stays healthy, he’s rushing for 1,000 yards. Book it. It’s a small sample size, but he’s averaging 58 rushing yards per game started, and that’s more than the all-time leader at quarterback (Lamar Jackson, 56.2). And they have nobody else – he’s unlikely to get benched even if (when) the team keeps losing. They should also be chasing points regularly. Draft someone decent like Jordan Love or Sam Darnold to pair with him.
11. Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet had a very even snap split in 2025. Health is always a concern with Walker, but he’s now on an Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes offense, and the Chiefs don’t have another back with more than 200 career touches. He should get a chance to be a true workhorse, and they’re certainly paying him like one. I’m OK with Walker as my RB1.
12. A lot of analysts are lukewarm on D.J. Moore, who turned 29 in April and is now on his third team. I’m not. Josh Allen hasn’t had a receiver who can attack every level of the field since Stefon Diggs left. Don’t be surprised if Moore has 1,200 yards and 8-10 TDs. His current ADP is WR28 and that’s a bargain.
13. Speaking of Moore, his departure from Chicago opens the door for the Bears’ talented young wide receiver duo. But from what I’ve seen in best ball and other early drafts, people are overvaluing Luther Burden III and undervaluing Rome Odunze.
14. No 2026 rookie will finish Top-15 at his position, and that includes Jeremiyah Love, who I think will be in enough of an annoying timeshare to finish just outside that range.
15. With that said, four rookie wide receivers who went outside the first two rounds in the NFL draft, who won’t be drafted in most standard-sized 12-team redraft fantasy leagues, and who I think could make some noise before the 2026 season is over are (in this order) Zachariah Branch, Antonio Williams, Elijah Sarratt, and Malachi Fields. All four joined thin receiver rooms and could see their way to significant opportunities. Keep them on your deep sleepers list in deeper leagues, and your waiver wire watch list in others.
16. The 2025 Saints’ offense was my “only break glass in case of emergency” fantasy unit in 2025 – a group I wanted no part of. One year later, and I’m pretty interested in dipping my toe in, as I think there will be some good value. Kellen Moore’s offense runs very fast (the 2025 Saints ranked 10th in plays run per game, with just the 23rd ranked offense), Tyler Shough showed promise as a rookie, the defense isn’t stellar, and the upgrades at RB1 and WR2 vs. what they had last season are significant. Laissez les bon temps roullez!
17. Speaking of bad defenses, stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Bengals are once again going to need to score a lot of points to win games. For the last four seasons, Joe Burrow has a similar injury pattern as Dak Prescott, but in opposite years. Burrow missed nine starts last season, zero in 2024, seven in 2023, and just one in 2022. A healthy Burrow is going to be among the league leaders in attempts, completions, yards, and passing TDs.
18. I’ve never been less worried about an over-age-30 running back than I am with Derrick Henry. The dude led all backs last year with 17 carries of 20-plus yards, at age 31 and with about 250 pounds on his frame. He’s missed just one game across the last four seasons, and scored 16 rushing TDs in each of his first two seasons in Baltimore. The King is just built diff, as they say.
19. I have no idea what to expect from Kyler Murray and the Vikings’ passing game this season, and neither should you.
20. For fantasy purposes, I’d rather see Tua Tagovailoa throwing passes to Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson than Michael Penix, Jr. If Tua starts most of the games, Bijan is going to lead all RBs in receptions.
21. While we’re here…there are going to be multiple instances of the wrong B. Robinson, RB of the Falcons going with a Top-5 pick. Don’t let it happen to you.
22. I actually like the tight end position this season. Someone check me for a fever.
23. In the long history of the NFL, it’s hard to find a team that had more of a “tale of two seasons” than the 2025-26 Indianapolis Colts. They went from playing lights out in the first half of the season to a total power outage in the second half. We’ll obviously get something in the middle this season, and a lot will depend on the health of Daniel Jones. I think there could be some decent values there.
24. Geno Smith’s very good 2022 season was a long time ago, and in the three seasons since then he’s thrown just 60 TDs against 41 INTs. I’m not sure he’s competent enough to keep Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall from being pretty big disappointments, given their talent level.
25. It’s boring because he gives you nothing on the ground, and his name is “Jared,” but Jared Goff is an extremely safe pick to finish in the QB7-10 range.
Thanks for letting me get all those thoughts out of my head. I feel better already. Keep it here for more fantasy content!
