Entering play on Sunday, April 19th, the American League only has five of its 15 teams with a positive run differential. Normally, a small number like that means there’s a great likelihood of it being a top-heavy league, but that’s not necessarily the case. In fact, for all the potential flaws that the Yankees have displayed so far, the teams predicted to be their main rivals for American League supremacy have struggled far more, seemingly opening a path for the Yankees to not only take control of the American League East,
but the AL as a whole.
Not simply due to the fact that they faced off in last year’s ALCS, but for everything they did on the path to it and afterwards, the Blue Jays and Mariners opened the season as the two strongest adversaries the Yankees could face. Through these first 20+ games, both of these teams have encountered more than their fair share of issues, some far more concerning than anything the Yankees have had to deal with.
Starting off with the Mariners, you have key players struggling for different reasons, everything from the continuance of Luis Castillo’s steady decline over the past few seasons to core hitters unable to match last year’s career-high numbers. While it’s too early to pass judgment on the numbers of Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Julio Rodríguez, the former two, particularly Raleigh, went out of their way to carry the load for this lineup last season. Just how much of those 2025 numbers they can replicate remains to be seen. Furthermore, the M’s were only a 90-72 team last year with a healthy number of breaks going their way — it’s reasonable to ponder if too much time was spent projecting potential marginal improvements and not enough on the steps back that were just as likely.
Moving over to a more well-known rival and the responsible party for the Yankees’ demise last season, the Jays have been the biggest disappointment of the AL and maybe all of baseball early on — even managing to get swept by the White Sox at one point. The Blue Jays had a better season than the M’s last year, winning 94 games, but they both shared the same Pythagorean win-loss record of 88-74. Assessing how the Jays got to that win total, there are some warning signs, particularly on the offensive side of the ball.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. may be the star, but who unequivocally ran the show last year was George Springer, a 36-year-old who experienced a resurgent and surprisingly healthy season. He is currently sidelined with an injury, and it’s unrealistic to expect something close to those numbers he put up in 2025, especially playing as many as 140 games. The impact of losing Bo Bichette and indirectly replacing him with Kazuma Okamoto, with some infield shuffling, is going to be felt throughout the whole campaign. Current injuries to Addison Barger and Alejandro Kirk also lower this offense’s floor, but even at full strength, it may not be quite as imposing as it was a year ago.
The boost of adding Dylan Cease has been nullified early on by the absence of the injured Trey Yesavage. Speaking of injured players, as much as that quote-unquote excuse can be used to address some of the struggles the Jays have had early on, if you look at a team like the Yankees, there is a clear pathway of improvement from that department.
If you look at the Yankees’ Opening Day payroll, a healthy chunk of that is tied up with Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole, by all accounts two-thirds of the top three in this rotation. Yes, he was out last year, but even counting on Cole’s imminent return in 2026 — something that was factored into how they built their staff — the Yankees had a very real excuse for a bit of a slow start pitching-wise, and yet, they’ve flourished in that department.
The smart money is on both the Jays and Mariners finding their stride as the year moves forward, but whether they figure out their problems or not the Yankees can gaze at the American League picture right now and foresee a path for dominance.
