The Denver Broncos have now won 15 straight regular season games that were decided by one-score (8 or fewer points). This ties the 2007-2008 Peyton Manning-led Colts. Since the start of the 2025 season the Broncos are 16 and 2 in one-score games in the regular season (1-1 in the post-season). This is a big change from 2024 when the Broncos were 1-6 in one-score games.
The positive change for the Broncos in being able to win one-score games has coincided with Chiefs forgetting how to win one-score games.
They were 11-0 in one-score games in 2024 and they have gone 3-10 since.
As good as the Broncos have been in one-score games since the start of the 2025 regular season, the 49ers have had the same winning percentage, 0.889, just in half the games. They are 8-1. The two worst teams are the Chiefs and the Titans. Both have a 0.231 win percentage. Both in 13 games (3-10).
Many of these one-score games have involved Bo Nix leading a fourth quarter comeback (4QC) and a game-winning drive (GWD). Both can only occur in the 4th quarter or overtime and can only happen in a win. If the QB leads a drive to take the lead and then the defense allows a GWD by the opposing QB, the Bronco QB does not get either.
Bo Nix has now started 42 NFL games and has lead 12 4QC and 15 GWD. Those are the highest values for any QB at this point in his career in NFL history.
The only QBs who are close is in 4QC are Tom Brady and Justin Herbert. Both have 10 in the first 3 starting seasons. Dak Prescott is the only one who is close in GWD. He had 14 in his first 48 starts (first 3 seasons). Tom Brady is the career leaded in 4QC with 46. He did that in 333 career starts. Bo has 12 in 42. Brady had one every 7.24 starts in his career. Bo has one every 3.50 starts. Brady also has the most GWD in his career with 58. He had one GWD every 5.74 starts. Nix has one every 2.80 starts. Bo’s numbers are best in history (min 32 GS) for both 4QC and GWD.
Now some context, it takes a special set of circumstances to get either a 4QC or a GWD. There is some luck involved. The 3 and out drive for the FG after the interception in OT against the Seahawks gained 8 yards. But Bo Nix still got a GWD for that drive. That was luck and good, good defense. So a QB needs to be playing for a team with a good defense to get either. Tom Brady had this early in his career as Belicheat almost always had good to great defenses.
QBs also need to be on a team with decent offense: good enough to keep the game at least close, but not good enough to win in blow-outs. By the same token, if the defense is inconsistent, the QB might be on the wrong side of blow-out losses.
If the Bronco offense ever figures things out (they had four 3-and-outs last game), the opportunities for these two stats should go away because the Broncos will be playing with leads. That is what the Bronco defense is designed to be at its best – rushing the passer and defending against the pass with a lead. That didn’t work too well at the end of the last game, but when both starting safeties are out, it changes things.
For historical context, as a rookie Nix had 3 4QC and 3 GWD. Last season he had 5 and 7. He already has 4 and 5 this season. However, the 5 GWD is not the most in the NFL. Somehow PFR is showing the Browns with 6 GWD when they only have 5 wins. That makes no sense until you realize that they credited two different QBs with a GWD (Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson) for the same game. I have never seen that before.
The Broncos are currently 22nd in scoring at 21.5 ppg with a full 8 weeks of the season completed. The rushing offense is tied for 25th at 3.78 yards per carry (tied with Dallas). Although part of that is a result of just how ineffective JK Dobbins has been so far this season as a runner. His 3.26 yards per touch is tied for 3rd worst among RBs with 35 or more carries. Only Kendre Miller and Dameon Pierce have been worse this season. Contrast that with RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman who (aided by long catches) are near the top of the league in yards per touch for RBs.
The Broncos converted 2 of 11 third downs against the Chiefs and now sit at dead last in the NFL on 3rd down conversion rate at 29.7 percent. The Commanders are second worst at 31.9%. The Bengals have been the best so far this season at 52.9 percent. The 49ers at 50.0 percent exactly are second. Thankfully the Broncos have been able to convert on 5 of 6 4th downs, but 3rd down efficiency needs to improve or this team won’t make the playoffs.
Jeremy Crawshaw is 4th in net yards per punt and he is tied for the league lead in punts downed inside the 10 at 10 (tied with Michael Dickson). He is also leading the league in “Inside the 10” points (trademarked) with 45. See below. For this a punter gets one point for a punt downed at 10, 2 for one downed at the 9, etc. While Crawshaw has yet to get one downed at the one or two this season, he has 10 of his 41 punts downed at or inside the 10. 41 punts is tied for most in the league (with the Eagles’ punter).
The sack total for the defense sits at 23 after 8 games. They are 3 behind the league leading Steelers, but Kermit has always been hard to sack, so getting him twice last game is admirable. The Lions and Vikings are also ahead of the Broncos with 24 and 25 and they both have only played 7 games. The Bronco defense is looking to become the first team in NFL history to lead the NFL in sacks for three straight seasons.
