You can easily sell yourself on the path for the 2025 Los Angeles Rams to win the Super Bowl.
- The defense could pick up where they left off and make life difficult for opposing QB’s
- Davante Adams is the best X receiver LA’s had since Odell Beckham, Jr. , filling a long-time need
- Matthew Stafford still has gas in the tank and the most dangerous weapons he’s had in a while
- Jared Verse is ready to step into the elite echelon of NFL pass rushers
- New additions—such as Nate Landman, Emmanuel Forbes, & Terrance Ferguson—will prove important as incremental difference makers
But getting to the Super Bowl is much easier said than done. There are only two certainties in the NFL: (1) parity, meaning the worst teams in the league often find ways to make a jump into contention and the best teams are pulled back towards the rest of the pack; and (2) attrition, the roster in which you enter Week 1 is going to look much different than the team you put on the field in Week 18.
The Rams—while
certainly among the league’s most talented—are built on a high wire act. Reaching the pinnacle is just one possibility in the potential range of outcomes.
Parity
Let’s first stay within LA’s own division, the NFC West.
The San Francisco 49ers finished in fourth last season and remain a talented team that can easily re-enter the contention discussion. San Francisco will benefit from a last place schedule—and before accounting for parity—they will face one of the easiest slates in all of football on paper. Parity is acting as a wind in their sails to pull them off the bottom of the heap.
Then there are the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks, who are both becoming sneaky teams in the division race.
The Cardinals spent the offseason completely retooling their defense. While in recent seasons they’ve deployed funky schemes as an equalizer, they now have the horses to line up and beat you best on best. It’s disappointing that they didn’t acquire more offensive weaponry, though second-year improvement by Marvin Harrison, Jr. might be enough for them to make an incremental jump.
It’s also difficult to know what Seattle is this season. Some believe they have the best defense in football, though the offense faced immense turnover and carries a wide range of outcomes. Can the Seahawks fix their rushing attack and use that to elevate a passing game with Sam Darnold and a mostly new cast of pass catchers?
These are simply the forces of parity only within the NFC West division. When you zoom out and view the NFC conference as a whole, there are certain to be new entrants into the playoff race.
Atlanta Falcons – Their fate hinges on the productivity of Michael Penix, though they have a wealth of weapons on offense. The defense is rounding into shape.
Green Bay Packers – Likely to improve from the seventh seed a year ago following their acquisition of Micah Parsons
The Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, and New York Giants should all be better than they were a year ago as well.
Attrition
It’s not a matter of if. Instead it’s a question of how will injuries affect the 2025 Rams?
We know that Matthew Stafford’s back soreness dominated the discourse surrounding training camp and the preseason. He’s ready to suit up for the opener against the Houston Texans.
But then there’s the question of ready to play versus ready to play well.
There are visible signs of decline in Stafford’s game. He’s ultra-reliant on pass protection, and when the offensive line cannot hold up he looks like an entirely different player. The Rams need Stafford at his best to reach the pinnacle of the sport. If he’s physically diminished and even loses a fraction of what he was last year, then the team will find itself at a crossroads. Simply put, good isn’t good enough. The Rams need Stafford to be at his best. Anything short of that likely means Los Angeles falls short of their expectations.
Stafford is not the only injury concern on this team. The high wire act also requires a clean bill of health from several key veterans.
RT Rob Havenstein is one of the most important pieces on the roster. He’s the veteran leader of the offensive line. He had both shoulders cleaned up this offseason and missed organized team activities, and this is a continuation of recent injury concerns for him.
Similar to Stafford, LT Alaric Jackson also seems ready to go in Week 1 after sitting out the preseason. Jackson is battling blood clotting issues for the second time in his career. The Rams are doing everything they can to manage the condition; however, it’s possible that there is a setback midseason. Sitting out key workouts also makes players subject to soft tissue injuries.
Sticking on offense, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams play physical brands of football and are no strangers to missed time. Davante Adams turns 33 in December and receivers usually do not age gracefully. Tyler Higbee will also be 33 in time for the playoffs.
Attrition is less of a concern on defense, thanks partly to a youth movement on this side of the ball in recent years and because the Rams have built depth at multiple positions. Still, it’s fair to have questions about the corner group. Darious Williams is 32 and missed an extended chunk of last season. Ahkello Witherspoon is on the wrong side of 30. Cobie Durant has battled injuries in recent years, and Emmanuel Forbes is extremely slight of frame. There are already questions of whether this group is good enough. Injuries and potential decline could turn this weak spot into a state of emergency.
Threading the eye of a needle
Building a roster capable of winning a championship is not an easy feat. Les Snead and Sean McVay deserve credit for doing so, because this year’s Rams team is certainly talented enough.
But reaching the Super Bowl is just one possibility in a range of outcomes for this roster, and likely a low probability one.
Knowing what we know today, how likely are the Rams to reach the pinnacle? It seems more likely that Stafford could miss significant time or not look like himself, leading to a possible collapse.
This is how I see the Rams’ chances this season:
Winning the Super Bowl – 5%
Making the playoffs – 50%
Missing the playoffs – 35%
Finishing fourth in the NFC West – 10%
