The Phillies enter the week leading the National League East by seven games. Now that we’ve reached the final week of August, the amount of time for the second place Mets to catch up to them is dwindling. But, with seven head-to-head matchups coming up, the Mets have a prime opportunity to make up ground in a hurry. On the other hand, the Phillies have an opportunity to extend their lead and put a stranglehold on the division heading into the final month.
Since this qualifies as a big series, I decided
to do a full-on series preview like in years past.
New York Mets
Record: 69-61, second place in National League East (seven games back)
The last time they Met
In late June, the Mets came to Citizens Bank Park having lost six games in a row. While they ended that streak in the second game of the series, the Phillies won the first and third games to come away with the series victory.
You’d think that would have ended the “The Mets have our number” narrative that exists among some Phillies fans, but if they lose on Monday, I’m sure people will be saying that once again.
What’s the deal with the Mets
It’s hard to get a handle on the Mets. They’ve spent stretches of the season looking dominant and then will often immediately follow that up with a stretch when they can’t get out of their own way. For instance, they followed a seven-game winning streak with a 2-14 slump.
What’s the issue? It’s tough to say. Both Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor finished in the top three of MVP voting last season, and while they’re both having fine seasons, neither man seems to be in serious contention for that award at the moment.
The rest of the team has been inconsistent. Pete Alonso has had an overall good season but is streaky. Mark Vientos went from burgeoning superstar to massive disappointment (although he had himself a weekend) and rookie Luisangel Acuna has not lived up to the hype that his family name caused.
Pitching wise, the rotation is solid, but injuries to Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning has tested their depth. It also hasn’t helped that Sean Manaea was injured half the season and has been mostly bad since his return.
The Mets tried to shore up their bullpen at the trade deadline, but they’ve had a Matt Klentak-like return on that investment. Tyler Rogers has had a few shaky outings and based on his blow up on Sunday, Gregory Soto remains as undependable as ever. And then there’s Ryan Helsley.
Trades can be Helsley
In theory, the Mets trading for Cardinals closer Helsley to pair with incumbent closer Edwin Diaz was a good idea. The team would then have two shutdown relievers to utilize at the end of games. In reality, in nine post-trade games, Ryan Helsley is 0-3 with a 9.82 ERA, and he has blown three saves.
Trading for another team’s closer can be dangerous, because either the new arrival or the team’s incumbent closer is going to be bumped from this role. (The Phillies didn’t have that problem when trading for Jhoan Duran since they didn’t really have anyone serving in the traditional closer’s role.)
Helsley was used to handling the ninth, but now he’s appearing in the seventh or eighth innings. Is that partly to blame for his struggles? I can’t say for sure, but I am enjoying it nonetheless.
Bryce in the Citi
That narrative about the Mets owning the Phillies? It’s been true lately when the games have been played at Citi Field.
The Phillies fared poorly in Flushing the past two seasons, going 3-8 in the regular season, to go along with an 0-2 record in the playoffs. When the teams met up there in September 2024, it was clear that the Mets were treating the series as a playoff-level matchup, and the Phillies couldn’t match that energy. Sadly, when they played an actual playoff series there, the Phillies were still unable to match the energy.
There’s no one clear reason for the Phillies’ struggles. Sometimes they don’t hit well, and sometimes they don’t pitch well. Perhaps the biggest problem with their offense is that their three-hole hitter has consistently hit poorly there since joining the Phillies. In 38 games at Citi Field as a member of the Phillies, Harper is batting .200 with three home runs. The problem seems to be getting worse, as he’s batting just .194 with one home run since the start of 2024.
It’s doesn’t seem like a case of the Mets’ pitching staff knowing how to attack him, since he has a .991 OPS against the Mets at Citizens Bank Park. And especially confusing is that he hit well at Citi Field while a member of the Nationals, putting up a .877 OPS in 56 games.
X-Men character of the series
Vargas
Vargas was set up to be the “big bad” of Chris Claremont’s X-Treme X-Men comic and was immediately established as a threat by maiming Beast and killing Psylocke.
But he never lived up to that early promise. Part of the problem was how generic his powers were. He was supposedly “the best at everything” with enhanced speed, strength, and healing. (Congratulations, you’re Wolverine without claws.)
Eventually, he was killed by Mr. Sinister, and none of the writers since cared enough about him to bring him back.
Closing thought
It would be great if the Phillies could win this series and make the Mets’ quest to win the division that much harder. But I’m not expecting it. Between the Phillies’ struggles at Citi Field and the Mets’ needing this series more than the Phillies, I am predicting a Mets win. But with a seven-game deficit, the onus is on the Mets to make up as much ground as possible. As long as the Phillies can come away with one victory, that’s an acceptable outcome.
