If you’re new to this series, we’re reviewing how the Green Bay Packers offense performed in 2025 by down & distance. We’re doing that by building out a call sheet. I ran it all down in my initial post. This is the 9th article in the series, where we’re looking at 4th & Short (where “Short” is defined as needing 3 or fewer yards for a 1st down). We’ll reference Success Rate & Explosive Rate in this series, so here are the definitions. On 4th down, a play is considered a success if it gains 100% of the yards needed
for a 1st down. A play is considered explosive if a pass gains 16+ yards or a run gains 12+ yards.
We’re winding down our callsheet series. This article marks our final entry in the down & distance section. After this, we’ll have a couple that cover Red Zone, and I think that’ll be it.
This should be a pretty short article, too (famous last words), as we only have a single play in this section. We’ll get to that, but first, let’s look at where the Packers stack up with the rest of the league. As always, we’re looking at plays outside of the red zone (as it’s basically a different game in the red zone), and we’re excluding Week 18, since that’s just a weird week across the league in terms of running a normal offense.
The Packers averaged 0.8 4th & Short plays per game, tied for 7th in the league. For context, the top team in the league was the Panthers at 1.2. The Raiders were 2nd at 1.1 plays per game. The Lions – known to be one of the more aggressive 4th down teams in the league – ranked 3rd with 1.0 plays per game.
Due to the small sample size of this situation, there are some wild swings in some of the rate data. When you’re only talking about 20 or fewer plays on the season for each team, one failed play can skew the numbers. With that little caveat out of the way, the Packers were middle of the pack in terms of success rate, coming in at 69.2%, tied for 14th in the league. That had them tied with the Rams, and just a tick behind the Ravens (70.0%). Their explosive play rate of 23.1% was 6th in the league.
The Packers had a pass rate of 53.8%, 15th in the league. That’s an area to address. When passing, they had a success rate of 85.7% (4th). When running, they had a Success Rate of 50% (26th). On the season, the Packers were a much better passing team than a running team, and that’s certainly reflected here.
Overall, the Packers were a much better 4th down team in 2025 than they had been over the previous few years in terms of deciding when to go. Here’s to hoping that trend continues into 2026, but with an uptick in the use of the passing game.
Speaking of which, let’s get to our play.
Two Man Stick (11.3 YPA, 100% Success)
With only 13 plays all season in this section, it was fairly slim pickings, but this concept rose above the rest. They ran some version of it 3 times, the most they ran any concept on 4th & Short. There were some other contenders – we’ll get to one later – but this is the clear favorite for multiple reasons.
It’s a quick-game staple, so it’s something the offense knows like the back of their hands. It’s a quick-hitter – allowing the QB to get rid of the ball at the top of a 3-step drop – but also has optionality and versatility.
In the diagram above, you can see the basics of Stick. At the very base level, it involves two receivers running quick outs 3-5 yards down the field. The inside receiver has an option to run the out route or break back on a quick hitch route, depending on the leverage of his defender.
On 4th downs this year, the Packers liked adding in a corner route over the top. That gives the QB a second option in the same line of sight as the Stick routes. If the defense is pinching the stick routes, the QB can quickly move to the corner route.
We see that corner route in the clip above, but we see Jordan Love hit Tucker Kraft on it in the next clip. Kraft is able to get outside leverage & create separation at the top of the route, making a nice target for Love to hit on 4th down.
A quick-hitting, versatile concept that the Packers are extremely familiar and comfortable with? That’s a no-brainer.
I wanted to put Mesh here because it’s a concept I love dearly, and I had a limited case when it came to the numbers: they ran Mesh one time on 4th & Short and it was a 22 yard TD. Pretty good! Here’s the play:
It’s a great play – one of my favorites of the year – but it’s not the core concept of Mesh doing the work. This play is a success because Love makes an insane throw and Dontayvion Wicks comes up with a beautiful catch, just barely getting that second foot down.
Besides the fact that Mesh is a longer-developing play than Stick, the entire concept hasn’t been very kind to the Packers over the past few years, and the success of this one play is not something you can really bank on consistently. Maybe next year, Mesh. Maybe next year.
Here’s how that section looks on our callsheet:
Here is where you can find the other parts of this series:
An Introduction
1st & 10
2nd & Long
2nd & Medium
2nd & Short
3rd & Long
3rd & Medium
3rd & Short
Albums listened to: Liz Phair – Exile in Guyville; Jeremy Enigk – Ghosts
