I missed writing so many columns for H&R during my three year hiatus. One was the SB Nation All-Big Ten teams one (which, sadly, I did not get to organize this year). Another was this one, where I picked every game of the Big Ten Tournament.
And boy, do we get some Big Ten Tournament this year.
After only 15 teams qualified last year the Big Ten is going all out with all 18 teams coming to Chicago. This is now a tournament so large that the teams taking the court tomorrow would have to win six games
in six days to steal the automatic bid. It’s the NCAA Tournament on steroids for them. By the time Michigan State takes the court for its first game Friday night two teams will have been gone from the field for three days. Two thirds of the league will already be out by then.
I still don’t know what purpose these early games hold. In 2020 we did at least get two games of the event before it was cancelled thanks to conference bloat. Under the current system we would have gotten six and two full rounds.
Just six American dollars can get you two Big Ten basketball games tomorrow night if you’re in Chicago! You can sit courtside for just $31 (and I can even knock it down to $11 if you use Seatgeek code BOILERUPLOADRIVALS for $20 off a first time purchase with each email address, and yes, you can use new email addresses each time. I may be a shameless, self-promoting whore, but I am not your parent, either and can’t tell you what to do).
The tournament officially starts tomorrow with a pair of “We’re contractually obligated to stage this games like they matter” games at the United Center. Here is my pick for each game.
Tuesday
#17 Maryland (11-20, 4-16) vs. #16 Oregon (12-19, 5-15) – 5pm, Peacock
Any time you can make two teams from opposite coasts meet in the middle of the country in front of dozens of people at 5pm (four local!) on a Tuesday you have to do it. Oregon won the regular season meeting 64-54 in College Park on January 2nd. This might be the least consequential game in the history of Big Ten basketball, as both these teams suck. Pick: Oregon
#18 Penn State (12-19, 3-17) vs. #15 Northwestern (13-18, 5-15) – 5:30pm, Peacock
It’s the Bill Carmody/Ed DeChellis Memorial game. How many times did godawful Penn State teams derail Northwestern teams that needed just one more win to finally get into the NCAA Tournament? That was a staple of 2000s Big Ten basketball. Perhaps the biggest oddity is that Michigan went 19-1 against the conference in one of the most dominant title runs in decades, including 10-0 on the road, but it only won by two in the Bryce Jordan Mausoleum. Northwestern won the regular season game 94-73 in Evanston, and at least it is close to home for them. Pick: Northwestern
Wednesday
#9 Iowa (20-11, 10-10) vs. #16 Oregon (13-19) – Noon, Peacock
Iowa is probably still in the NCAA Tournament, but a loss on Wednesday would be a fourth straight and get them closer to the Bubble than they want to be. They won 84-66 at Oregon, but actually lost at Maryland by 7. I am calling this game B1G NUDE WEDNESDAY Pick: Iowa
#13 USC (18-13, 7-13) vs. #12 Washington (15-16, 7-13) – 2:30pm, Peacock
No.
Just…. No. This is not a Big Ten game and you can’t make me believe it is. Washington won both matchups this year, including just last week 91-72. Pick: Washington
#10 Indiana (18-13, 9-11) vs. #15 Northwestern (14-18) – 6:30pm, Big Ten Network
You know the matchups are getting better when they start to appear on Big Ten Network instead of Peacock! As Purdue fans, we will have our eye on this one, as we face the winner. Indiana also likely needs at least one win for its NCAA Tournament chances. Can Purdue and Indiana actually meet in the Big Ten Tournament for only the second time ever (the first being way back in 1998)? History says no. Here are the times where Purdue and Indiana could have met if one or both had just won one more game:
2001: Purdue lost 83-66 to 1 seed Illinois in the quarterfinals before Indiana beat the Illini in the semis.
2008: This is one of the more famous examples. The tournament was in Indianapolis and both Purdue and Indiana had byes to the quarterfinals as the 2 and 3 seed, respectively. Semifinals tickets were skyrocketing on the secondary market, and a lot of people paid good money to see… 10 seed Illinois beat 6 Minnesota, as both pulled quarterfinals. It was also the first of three buzzer-beater losses in Gainbridge Fieldhouse for the Hoosiers.
2010: Indiana loses its opening game 73-58 to Northwestern, avoiding a matchup in the quarters with #2 seed Purdue.
2016: Purdue was in the semis as a 4 seed with a comfortable 89-58 win over Illinois, but Big Ten champion and No. 1 seed Indiana loses 72-69 to Michigan on a three at the buzzer. I was standing behind the Michigan bench when this happened at Gainbridge Fieldhouse and the sound of horror thousands of IU fans made was exquisite.
2018: Purdue is a 3 seed, but 6 seed Indiana is knocked off 76-69 by an awful Rutgers team that had only won three conference games all year before winning two in the tournament.
2022: Indiana actually made the semifinals along with Purdue! The Boilers did their part with a 75-70 win over Michigan State in Gainbridge, but Iowa takes a turn with a last second elimination of Indiana 80-77, preventing an all-Indiana championship game in Indy.
2023: Both make the semifinals again. Purdue beats a tired Ohio State team on its fourth game in four days, but Indiana falls to 10 seed Penn State 77-73.
As you can see, Purdue and Indiana are not allowed to play in this damn thing. Northwestern also won 72-68 just a few weeks ago in Bloomington. Pick: Northwestern.
#11 Minnesota (15-16, 8-12) vs. #14 Rutgers (13-18, 6-14) 9pm, Big Ten Network
Minnesota was a bitey team this year. They got Iowa once and pushed Wisconsin twice. Yeah, they were 8-12, but they had six games they lost by 5 points or less or in overtime. They beat Rutgers by 19 in the one meeting, too. Pick: Minnesota
Thursday
#8 Ohio State (20-11, 12-8) vs. #9 Iowa (21-11) Noon, Big Ten Network
Finally, an entertaining game against two good teams. Both should be solidly in the field and the winner gets to be sacrificed by Michigan. Iowa won the only meeting in Iowa City 74-57, but Ohio State is playing really well right now. Pick: Ohio State
#4 Wisconsin (22-9, 14-6) vs. #12 Washington (16-16) 2:30pm, Big Ten Network
Winner gets to be U-Dub for another year. Given that Wisconsin just had a game where pretty much anything they threw at the basket went in and the fact they just beat Washington by 17 the Badgers should be in good shape here. Pick: Wisconsin
#7 Purdue (23-8, 13-7) vs. #15 Northwestern (15-18) 6:30pm, Big Ten Network
Purdue just escaped Evanston with a narrow 4 point win and the Boilermakers are not at their best of late. This is a game Purdue should win and probably needs to win in order to hang on to a 3 seed in the NCAAs. Still feels like a failure we fell this far though. Pick: Purdue
#6 UCLA (21-10, 13-7) vs. #11 Minnesota (16-16) – 9pm, Big Ten Network
Minnesota might be playing for an NIT berth in this one, which would be a good step forward for their program. They beat the Bruins in Minneapolis, too. This could be a feisty, entertaining game, but Donovan Dent has been awfully good of late. Pick: UCLA
Friday
#1 Michigan (29-2, 19-1) vs. #8 Ohio State (21-11) Noon, Big Ten Network
Michigan just closed out one of the most dominant runs you will ever see in Big Ten play. It won both Ohio State games by a combined 33 points, too. They are scary good and will crush whoever they play here. Pick: Michigan
#4 Illinois (24-7, 15-5) vs. #5 Wisconsin (23-9) 2:30pm, Big Ten Network
Potential game of the tournament here, as these two played a banger in Champaign won by Wisconsin 92-90 in overtime. Illinois has the Freshman of the Year in Keaton Wegler, but it has lost three games in overtime since February 7th. They feel like a team that could win it all or crash out in round 2. Pick: Wisconsin
#2 Nebraska (26-5, 15-5) vs. Purdue (24-8) 6:30pm, Big Ten Network
Purdue got the best possible draw it could get for its quarterfinal. It lost on its home floor to the other three triple bye teams, but it went to Lincoln and won in overtime after dominating for 37 minutes (and crashing out the last three). No collapse this time. Also, this game might be the critical one to determine if Braden Smith sets that all-time assists record. He would need probably at least five postseason games to get there, and should Purdue make the semis I think he has a very good chance of getting that many. Pick: Purdue
#3 Michigan State (25-6, 15-5) vs. UCLA (22-10) 9pm, Big Ten Network
If every game goes how I have predicted so far Purdue would get a semifinal rematch against a team it lost two by just two points on a missed three-pointer in the final seconds. The Spartans rolled UCLA 82-59 on February 17 and had won five in a row before losing at Michigan yesterday. Pick: Michigan State
Saturday
#1 Michigan (30-2) vs. #5 Wisconsin (24-9) 1pm, CBS
The Badgers were the only team to beat the Wolverines in Big Ten play, winning by three in Ann Arbor. A Wolverine win would give them at least one victory over all 17 conference opponents this year, and I think they get it. Pick: Michigan
#3 Michigan State (26-6) vs. #7 Purdue (25-8) 3:30pm, CBS
How will this game be called? Will Purdue be allowed to play without Michigan State clutching and grabbing as much as they did in West Lafayette? The Boilermakers and Spartans played one of the most even games of the year in Mackey, so I expect he same here with Purdue finally getting a big win because they are not playing at home. Pick: Purdue
Sunday
#1 Michigan (31-2) VS. #7 Purdue (26-8) 3:30pm, CBS
Could Purdue get a 2 seed with a Big Ten title going through Nebraska, Michigan State, and Michigan? I think they are a lock three seed if they make it to Saturday, and making it to Sunday puts a 2 in play with three more Tier 1 NET wins. Michigan is still better. Pick: Michigan
