Following three consecutive 3-goal losses, it really felt like the wheels were coming off for Liverpool. Add in the Mo Salah Drama, and it really felt like Arne Slot could be out the door in short order.
But football is a funny sport, and narratives can change—for better or for worse—with a single result. Two weeks ago, The Reds managed to stop the bleeding away to West Ham. Two draws followed, and this week they’ve managed a win away to Inter Milan, and a home win over Brighton. |
Three wins and two
draws in two weeks would not have been anything to write home about before the season started, but after two months of toil in attack, and harebrained mistakes in defense, 5 matches unbeaten is something to hang your hat on.
Yesterday’s win over Brighton was hardly a classic display of dominance. Brighton created more than their fair share of chances, and probably should’ve scored at least once. While the xG was in Liverpool’s favor, it wasn’t overwhelmingly so: 2.41 to 1.69 according to Understat.
On another day, yesterday’s match could’ve ended as another draw or even a loss for Liverpool. Fowler knows that Liverpool have had plenty of those days already this season.
This is not just with my Liverpool-tinted glasses on. Liverpool have been slightly unlucky so far this season, underperforming both in attack (26 goals on 28.9 xG) and in defense (24 goals against on 23.27 xGA).
The upshot of all of this is that while they are tracking their xPTS spot on (26 points on 26.02 xPTS), it should be good enough for 3rd in the league, not 6th, where they currently stand.
On the other hand, the expected points also shows roughly what the table does: Arsenal and City are the two best teams (33.94 and 30.11 xPTS respectively), and a bunch of mediocre teams clumped together. Seven teams, Liverpool included, are between 26.02 xPTS and 23.89 xPTS.
In some of the past performances season , including some of the aforementioned tonkings, Liverpool actually outperformed their opponents on expected goals. Of course, there is game state to consider, but that doesn’t mean that they also haven’t been more than a touch unlucky this season.
So far this season, Liverpool have out performed Chelsea, United, and Nottingham Forest, all losses.
While they’re not nearly as dominant as last season, they were perhaps never as bad as the results and pundits were making out. Adding in the mental and emotional difficulties of losing Diogo Jota, and it’s understandable how we’ve ended up where we are.
So, have Liverpool turned a corner? You might argue that Liverpool have been performing about the same (i.e. good but not great) all season, just with some streaky and odd results.
However, you could also argue that we’ve improved just enough to be able to dictate the game state better than we have been able to previously. Excuse the mixed metaphors, but if these are green shoots instead of another false dawn, then time will tell.
If Liverpool can build on these results, improve performances, and kick on with the rest of the season, The Reds might yet make something of the season. Otherwise, we’ll probably be in for a long and pretty frustrating battle for the Champions League places.
