Some team will give the Cincinnati Reds something semi-tangible for the services of Brady Singer. The veteran righty eschewed a miserable start to the season and has turned things completely around, pitching to a 2.92 ERA and 3.56 FIP across 52.1 IP during his last 9 starts. That includes his typical durability as well as pitching into the 7th inning in four of those outings.
That’s got a bit of value even if he will be a free agent at season’s end. Someone will give the Reds something, even if it’s
likely to be a lottery ticket we won’t hear about for years down the road. Singer, admittedly, at least gives the Reds front office an avenue to a legitimate (even if far off) prospect.
The thing is, the rest of the free agents to-be on the Reds roster don’t actually afford the front office that opportunity right now given how poorly they’ve collectively performed this season. That’s certainly the case for Eugenio Suarez and his $15 million deal, while Caleb Ferguson ($4.5 million) and Pierce Johnson ($5.5 million) have both chipped in with sub-par seasons out of the bullpen. Even Brock Burke’s durability (league-high 51 appearances and 2.79 ERA) are sunk by a plummeting K-rate, just a 1.38 K/BB, and unsightly 4.45 FIP so far in his first season with the Reds.
Could the Reds potentially get something back of value for Tyler Stephenson? Perhaps, as valuing catchers (especially in the age of ABS challenges) is a bit diffucult to do. Still, the number of times catchers get traded into pennant races mid-year with how hard it is to learn entirely new pitching staffs is woefully small, and it’s hard to envision any club going over the top to land a backstop with just a 94 OPS+ at this juncture.
Even Nathaniel Lowe, whose 116 OPS+ this season matches his career number, will be a hard sell for the Reds. They’ll likely get something for him as teams search for 1B/DH types who can hit RHP, but there’s a reason Lowe couldn’t even land a big league deal guaranteed this offseason in the first place.
The reality is that aside from Singer, and Stephenson if you squint, the Reds really aren’t going to get much for the rest of their pending free agents. The group of Suarez, Ferguson, Burke, Johnson, and Ty Steves have the prorated portion of roughly $34.2 million left on their contracts, or just shy of $13 million between now and the end of the season. So, if the Reds are truly going to move them for next to nothing in return player-wise, they’ll be moving them simply to try to recoup some of that $13ish million that is still owed their way.
In Suarez’s case, they’ll likely have to eat a couple million of even that prorated total just to get a team to take a flyer on him, which they’ll still undoubtedly do due to there being enough streakiness in his bat to make his first half numbers a bit more irrellevant. They’ll take him for that reason, sure, but they aren’t going to pay the Reds as if he’s actually been a 49 dinger a season guy to do so.
So, it’s $13 million for the Castellinis to decide over. Is it worth a $13 million gamble that the Reds, at 47-54 and 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot right now, might have a miracle run in them down the stretch now that Hunter Greene is back? There are still a half-dozen teams ahead of them in that chase, of course, and even when this team shot out to a 20-11 record to start the year they never once looked good enough to play the kind of ball they’d need to play down the stretch to make it reality. Or, rather, is having $13 million back in the checkbook to spend (or pocket) in other ways next year and punting this season completely into the sun the look they want to give off after so many other years of premature disappointment?
Some times during teardowns and sell-offs, it’s about moving old pieces for new pieces because the someone actually wants the old ones elsewhere. This time, though, it’s going to come down to just cold, hard cash. I think we all know what that means with this ownership group, though.
