Each college football national champion for the past thirty years presently plays in one of three conferences: the SEC (Alabama, Auburn, Florida, LSU, Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma); the Big Ten (Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Nebraska); or the ACC (Clemson, FSU, and Miami). A present-day Big XII team hasn’t been a national champion since 1990, when (11-1-1) Colorado split the AP and Coaches title with (11-0-1) Georgia Tech. BYU in 1984 was the last Big XII team to win a consensus national title. And just
one Big XII team has played for a national title since the BCS era began in 1999 – Georgia’s 65-7 drubbing of TCU in 2023.
And yet, the ACC repeatedly gets lumped in with the Big XII as a conference so inferior that it’s incapable of producing a national champion.
To quote the fine lyricist CeeLo Green, “well ain’t that some sh!t.”
Look, the ACC isn’t the SEC or the Big Ten. That’s not the point here. But the ACC is also not the Big XII or any conference that is highly unlikely to produce a national champion like the MWC or American or whatever. The ACC should be consistently earning two playoff bids, and in the conversation for a third, in a 12 or 14 team playoff. But for that to happen, the ACC has to buck this perception and start winning non-conference matchups.
Perception starts at the top. Miami held up its end of the bargain last year clobbering Florida, but that was more than outweighed by Clemson being ran off the field 34-3 against Georgia and later taking a 17-14 loss at home against rival South Carolina. Pretty much every other “top” ACC team laid a stinker in their non-conference matchups. Playoff crasher SMU fell to BYU at home; Virginia Tech, a popular dark horse pick, lost to Vanderbilt in OT; North Carolina let James Madison hang 70 (!!) on them; and Boston College missed their opportunity at Missouri. We’re not going to even discuss Florida State. Frankly, Cal going on the road to beat Auburn was the only other strong ACC non-conference win. No, Georgia Tech’s near upset of Georgia doesn’t count because close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. The third best ACC non-conference win last year was, what, Syracuse at UNLV? Sigh…
Fortunately, every year is a new year and the ACC has several non-conference opportunities to adjust its national perception. These are the ten non-conference ACC matchups to watch, many occurring this opening weekend:
Honorable Mention: No. 16 SMU @ TCU (9/20); Syracuse v. No. 24 Tennessee (8/30, 12:00pm ABC); Boston College @ Michigan State (9/6, 7:30pm on NBC); Louisville v. Kentucky (11/29); North Carolina v. TCU (9/1, 8:00pm on ESPN); Pittsburgh @ West Virginia (9/13, 3:30pm on ESPN); Georgia Tech @ Colorado (8/29, 8:00pm on ESPN)
While not premier opportunities to beat highly ranked teams, these matchups will help the ACC with their depth argument as well as cementing that the conference is clearly better than the Big XII. TCU, West Virginia, and Colorado are not expected to compete for the Big XII’s playoff birth, but then again neither was Arizona State last year. While Syracuse knocking off Tennessee would be a nice feather in the ACC’s cap, the SMU at TCU matchup is arguably more important because a) SMU dropped this game last year, and b) if SMU wants to earn another playoff bid it really, really ought to maintain an unblemished non-conference resume. Ultimately, there’s ten better opportunities out there for the ACC to nab quality wins.
10. Florida State v. No. 8 Alabama (8/30, 3:00pm on ESPN)
Don’t hold your breath, but boy would FSU pulling off this upset sure change the narrative. The Crimson Tide are roughly a two-touchdown favorite, which seems criminally low considering that Alabama just missed the playoffs while Florida State was 2-10. Frankly, the Seminoles winning this game would actually do more for the ACC’s status than any other game on this list. It would immediately announce FSU as rebounding from its one-year vacation from relevance, which instantly boosts the ACC’s chances of being a multi-bid conference. Even if FSU stumbles later in the season, getting this win would be transformative for the ACC’s perception as every win against Florida State looks better than last year. Highly unlikely that FSU beats Alabama, but to quote the fine sports columnist Greg Cote “yah never know.”
9. Georgia Tech v. No. 5 Georgia (11/28, 3:30pm on ABC)
Unlike FSU, this upset is within the realm of reasonable possibilities. Georgia Tech had multiple opportunities last year to secure its first win since 2016 in this in-state rivalry, but fell just short in a record-breaking eight overtime loss. Georgia Tech also has a relatively favorable path to Charlotte – they have to face Clemson at home, but avoid Miami, SMU, and Louisville – so having this head-to-head win would be a real boost for the ACC should Georgia Tech ascend to 9 or 10 win territory this season.
8. Virginia Tech v. No. 13 South Carolina (8/31, 3:00pm on ESPN)
This might be a make-or-break year for Brent Pry who’s a combined 16-21 since arriving in Blacksburg. South Carolina and Miami are the only pre-season ranked teams on Virginia Tech’s schedule, so this neutral site matchup in Atlanta could be one of Pry’s few opportunities to show the Hokie faithful that he’s righting the ship. South Carolina will once again aspire to crash the CFP, and Virginia Tech tagging them with a loss could really help ensure that the ACC’s second or third team finishes ahead of the Gamecocks for a playoff birth.
7. No. 16 SMU v. Baylor (9/6, 12:00pm on CW)
This is the toughest non-conference matchup for SMU, the ACC’s third highest-ranked team this preseason. Baylor is just outside the pre-season Top 25 and is a trendy pre-season pick to win the Big XII. It’s perfectly plausible that this matchup could later determine the pecking order of teams on the fringe of crashing the CFP. Should multiple Big XII teams finish with 10+ wins, an SMU victory in this game will help quash the Big XII’s effort to steal multiple CFP bids, most likely at the ACC’s expense.
6. Florida State v. No. 15 Florida (11/29)
It’s painful for a Miami blog to mention a 2-10 Florida State team as having multiple “important” games, but the reality is that the Seminoles are a conference blueblood whose non-conference success boosts the entire ACC’s perception, and Florida is a pre-season Top 15 team in the SEC. While FSU has a snowball’s chance to defeat Alabama this weekend, Florida is a rivalry game and anything can happen especially at Doak Campbell Stadium.
5. Duke v. No. 12 Illinois (9/6, 12:00pm on ESPN or ABC)
Raise your hand if you knew that Illinois is beginning the season ranked in the top 12 above South Carolina, Michigan, Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee, and 2024 playoff participants Indiana and Boise St. If you did, you’re a true college football fan. The Fighting Illini finished last season ranked 16th after a 10 win season capped with a Citrus Bowl win over South Carolina. Many believe Illinois is this year’s Indiana. Meanwhile, Duke is entering year 2 of the Manny Diaz era after a very respectable 9-4 season in his first year. Duke also coughed up a reportedly lucrative NIL deal to secure QB Darian Mensah out of the transfer portal from Tulane, who was generally considered the top QB transfer aside from Carson Beck. Most of the ACC’s non-conference games are with SEC teams (thanks in large part to rivalry week and the SEC having only 8 conference games), so this is a rare opportunity for a competitive ACC squad to square up against a competitive Big Ten squad.
4. No. 10 Miami v. No. 6 Notre Dame (8/31, 7:30pm on ABC)
Obviously an important game for Miami, but for this ACC list it gets pegged down a few notches because Notre Dame is an independent. Really, the Irish are a quasi-ACC team because they play 5 ACC games a year (the other four games this year are @Boston College, @Pittsburgh, v. Syracuse, and @Stanford). By the transitive property, if Miami beats Notre Dame and then Notre Dame makes the playoffs by itself beating the likes of Texas A&M and USC, that most definitely will improve the ACC’s status. But not as much as if Notre Dame was in another conference.
3. No. 4 Clemson @ No. 13 South Carolina (11/29)
Last year, this game was one of the most impactful in determining the final playoff field and could be equally true this year. South Carolina defeating Clemson meant that the only way for Clemson to make the playoffs was via an ACC Championship auto-bid. While Virginia Tech upsetting South Carolina this year would be great for the ACC, the ACC really needs Clemson to at least split its matchups with LSU and South Carolina. The Gamecocks enter the season with slightly longer odds than the Tigers to make the playoffs, so while both games are important, the Tigers stumbling in this rivalry game wouldn’t have the same impact as laying another egg in their season opener.
2. No. 10 Miami v. No. 15 Florida (9/20)
This will be a huge game. Miami and Florida should each be no worse than 2-1, and the only other pre-season top 25 matchup this week is No. 12 Illinois at No. 20 Indiana. Unless ESPN wants to feature Michigan at unranked Nebraska (to be aired on CBS), there’s a high probability that GameDay is coming to Coral Gables this week. This game will mean a hair more than the Notre Dame game come December when the Playoff Committee is trying to compare the inevitable slew of SEC teams alleging a fictitious birthright to participate in the playoffs compared with a second or third ACC team. Fans of every ACC team should be rooting for Miami to trounce Florida a second straight year.
1. No. 4 Clemson v. No. 9 LSU (8/30, 7:30pm on ABC)
Georgia absolutely embarrassing Clemson in last year’s season opener set the tone for Clemson’s entire season. The Tigers almost fell out of the polls and had to claw their way back to respectability over the rest of the season. A different outcome this year against LSU should confirm to the ACC naysayers that this conference has at least one legitimate national championship contender.
Not to beat a dead horse, but conference perception starts at the top. If Miami and Clemson both start the season 4-0 (undoubtedly with a Top 5 ranking), it will have a trickle down effect to the SMU’s and Louisville’s of the world who have a fighter’s chance at a CFP bid. Sprinkle in an FSU, Georgia Tech, or Virginia Tech upset and all of a sudden the ACC is viewed in an entirely different light than recent past. The opportunities are there, the teams just have to go and prove themselves.
