At first the premise of this question seems silly. Jonathan Taylor is leading the NFL in carries and is 2nd behind only Christian McCaffrey in touches. If that workload isn’t a ringing endorsement of the Colts
star back’s ability to handle a large role in the offense, what is?
But diving deeper and there is some clear habits that Head Coach Shane Steichen has shown in when he chooses to feature his top weapon.
Jonathan Taylor Splits by Quarter
- 1st: 60 Touches (5.45 per game)
- 2nd: 56 Touches (5.09 per game)
- 3rd: 68 Touches (6.18 per game)
- 4th: 45 Touches (4.09 per game)
- OT: 8 Touches (4 per game)
Fans online have noted that Taylor hasn’t gotten enough touches down the stretch of games, and it is true that the 4th quarter is when we have seen his lowest touch rate compared to other quarters in regulation. Partially this is due to the Colts blowing out several opponents and giving Taylor a break towards the end of games, going so far as to rest starters in a few of them.
Certainly has a case to skew the season long numbers, especially in the 4th quarter where these complaints are directed at.
Jonathan Taylor Splits by Game Result
- Wins: 181 Touches (22.63 per game)
- Losses: 56 Touches (18.67 per game)
However there is a clear distinction between Jonathan Taylor’s touch volume in wins versus losses. The Colts have opted to give Taylor a much heavier workload generally in wins to help keep the clock ticking after early leads and whittle away opponent’s chances for victory.
While that didn’t happen toward the end of losses to the Chiefs (went pass heavy with 9 passes to 3 runs in the final 4 drives of 3 & Outs), nor the Steelers (were trailing by several scores rather than in the lead). The Colts opted to give Taylor a combined 6 Touches in the 4th quarter/OT in those 2 games, but Colts did give a heavier workload in the loss to the Rams with 8 Touches in the 4th quarter. However only 3 of those touches were when the Colts were trailing vs the Rams.
Is this a case of what came first the chicken or the egg? Have the Colts lost these games because of a lack of involvement in Taylor? Or did they not use Taylor because they were losing?
Jonathan Taylor Carry Splits by Score Differential
- Leading by 9-16 Points: 26 Carries (Tied 6th)
- Leading by 4-8 Points: 35 Carries (4th)
- Within 3 Points: 84 Carries (3rd)
- Trailing by 4-8 Points: 28 Carries (Tied 11th)
- Trailing by 9-16 Points: 6 Carries (Tied 39th, only occured in the Steelers game)
The Colts gameplan in involving Jonathan Taylor certainly evolves based off of the score differential, though that is true for any back. But for Taylor, that becomes especially apparent compared to his piers. He is one of the most involved RBs in the NFL when his team is either leading or within 3 points. But as soon as the Colts are down by 4-8 Points or more, his workload crestfalls.
While the Colts are not often down by over a TD and a 2 point conversion (only happened during the Steelers game), the abandonment of the run game when needing a TD and potentially a 2 point conversion to retake the lead/tie is not encouraging. Steichen instead opts to rely on his passing game to try to retake the lead, which depending on the game situation can make sense, but when teams are not fearful of the run game threat it makes the job much harder for Daniel Jones.
Jonathan Taylor Splits by Game Situation
- Leading with <4 minutes left in Q4/OT: 5 Touches (last one was vs Chargers Week 7)
- Tied with <4 minutes left in Q4/OT: 4 Touches (last one was vs Chiefs in Week 12)
- Trailing with <4 minutes left in Q4: 8 Touches (last one was vs Rams in Week 4)
When diving into the splits by late game situation, the touches are a bit misleading. The resting the starters factor is still in play for the leading with under 4 minutes splits, reducing Jonathan Taylor’s potential workload late in the game in those situations.
When tied they Colts have opted to try to give Taylor touches versus the Chiefs last week, but the results were not great against the aggressive Spagnolo Defense in Overtime. However there is a large gap in time from when the Colts have given Taylor touches when tied late in games, mostly because the situation doesn’t happen very often late in games.
Surprisingly Taylor has been given the most touches when trailing in the last 4 minutes of the 4th Quarter, despite that situation not popping up very often for the 2025 Colts. Still the 8 touches is misleading, as it hasn’t occurred since Week 4 vs the Rams, where he got 5 of the 8 touches when trailing in this situation.
Jonathan Taylor Carry Splits by Defenders in the Box
- 8+ Defenders: 64 Carries (Tied 16th)
- 7 Defenders: 95 Carries (1st by 9 Carries)
- 6< Defenders: 46 Carries (2nd)
Finally, we get to the film room junkie’s heart of this discussion, the men in the box split.
Shane Steichen doesn’t like to run the ball when defenses are clearly prepared for it. When the opposing defense has a light (6 or less defenders) or neutral (7 defenders) in the box, he has a strong belief in his blockers having the advantage to handle them and for Taylor to be able to sift through the traffic and find the lane. Taylor certainly does reward this belief:
- 5.39 Yards Per Carry vs light Boxes (14th in NFL)
- 6.42 Yards Per Carry vs neutral Boxes (2nd in NFL)
But versus heavier boxes (8+ Men) Steichen opts to pass as the defense expects the run and is showing a pre-snap commitment to stopping it. It makes sense schematically, the Defense is giving a single high safety look and the Colts have one of the best deep threats in the NFL in Alec Pierce to potentially take advantage of this look, as well as other threats like Michael Pittman Jr, Tyler Warren, or Josh Downs who can slip past this aggressive look for the defense and make big plays.
Conventional wisdom of coaching supports Shane Steichen’s hesitancy to use Jonathan Taylor in this situation unless the Colts are also prepared for it with adequate blockers in place on the line such as in short yardage situations.
But even then, Jonathan Taylor is still producing 5.3 Yards Per Carry, the 3rd best mark in the NFL. His success rate is 2nd among RBs, his TD% is 1st, and 6th in stuffed%. If the Colts counter the loaded boxes properly, they can have success with Taylor running the ball despite the extra traffic or by trying to spread out their weapons out wide to lessen the box.
Is Steichen truly Gun-Shy about using Taylor?
Yes… and no.
Steichen like practically all playcallers tend to let the game situation dictate his usage of his designed run game, whether it is due to scoring differential or by defenders in the box. Clock management is key to maintaining leads, and a strong run game is vital to that. Defenders in the box is a deterrent from running the ball.
Steichen does deserve criticism for his usage of Jonathan Taylor late in the game versus the Chiefs, as the 1 touch for Taylor out of 9 plays on the final 3 drives of regulation before overtime while trying to preserve the lead is not a valid strategy barring injury or fatigue to his star back. Spagnuolo was loading the box, that much is clear. But there were adjustments that could have been made to force him to unload it and help Taylor’s rushing or opt to get him going in the passing game via screens/flats. There are other options to get Taylor touches with his hands returning to early career reliability and showing better receiving ability. But when facing with the loaded box, you usually don’t run at the defense, that logic is true.
And flip side of clock management also applies to the Steelers game. It wouldn’t make sense to use Taylor as much late in the game when down by multiple scores. Should the run game have been more involved? Yes. But it does explain the decrease in rushing volume albeit not to as an extreme degree.
The latter part is crucial: to as an extreme degree. Steichen is following core principles of offensive philosophy, the numbers game of blockers vs box defenders and the clock management strategies a vast majority of times. But he can do so in a bigger extreme than Colts fans want, abandoning the run game and putting his faith in the passing game with Daniel Jones, the Colts pass protectors, and their passing weapons to get the job done when down by over a Touchdown or facing extra box defenders more than most playcallers.
He believes the threat of the run game with Taylor just being on the field is enough to challenge the defense, without committing the workload to him in those situations compared to his contemporaries. Perhaps Steichen needs a slight adjustment to his philosophy. That isn’t to say he should commit a heavy workload to Jonathan Taylor, situation be damned (a la a 2021 Derrick Henry getting 27 carries and 29-30 touches a game). But keep the run game a more respectfully consistent threat rather than an outright decoy in these situations.
Shane Steichen is still giving Taylor the biggest carry-load and second biggest touch-load in the NFL after all, despite several late game substitutions for backups due to blowouts. Taylor is not starving for work as if he is an Eagles’ Wide Receiver by any means. But sometimes a coach has to put more trust his best player and a strong group of run blockers, more than what conventional wisdom would say.
Taylor might not say it, he is an unselfish player who trusts in his coaches to put him and the team in position to succeed. But an uptick in work to him should be warranted, even in situations that conventionally don’t say he should. He and the Colts blockers are just that good.
