As another early-season international break approaches – upon the conclusion of Sunday’s fixtures – Everton are just about hanging onto a top half position in the league table by virtue of superior goal difference. However, should the Blues lose their game against Crystal Palace at Hill Dickinson Stadium, and results go unfavourably elsewhere, they could drop by as many as four places, which may leave many fans feeling that the promise of a good start to the campaign has been squandered.
There may
be some recency bias in the current slightly negative mood surrounding the club, which has failed to win any of its last four matches, acting as a counterweight to the trio of victories immediately preceding the downturn in form. Tough games await upon resumption of the campaign, with the Toffees playing Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur after the break. First up though, they play hosts to the high-flying Eagles, who are currently enjoying their longest unbeaten run since 1969 — standing at 19 games.
Form
Palace overcame a poor start last season in which they failed to win any of their initial eight league matches, to finish strongly ending up in 12th spot and capturing their first major silverware with an FA Cup final win over Manchester City. Having qualified for the UEFA Europa Conference League, the South Londoners needed to reinforce their squad over the summer, but added only veteran goalkeeper Walter Benítez from PSV on a free, along with Croatian left back Borna Sosa (€2.3m, Ajax), until late in the transfer window. Star attacker Eberechi Eze then departed for Arsenal for €69.3m, replaced a few days later by Villarreal winger Yéremy Pino (€30m).
The Eagles added Getafe striker Christantus Uche on loan, but the story of transfer deadline day was the club’s last-minute refusal to sell their captain and England international centre half Marc Guéhi to Liverpool, with manager Oliver Glasner succeeding in a battle of wills with his own board. Still, Palace ended the summer having generated player trading profits of almost €19m, ahead of their inaugural campaign of continental football — which is the opposite one would expect.
Up to now the Eagles have made light of this, by continuing the excellent form that they demonstrated during most of last season. After defeating Liverpool via a penalty shootout to capture the Community Shield, Palace have won three and drawn three of their opening six league matches, picking up victories over Aston Villa, West Ham United and Liverpool again. They were highly impressive in that 2-1 win over the Reds, and on Thursday dispatched Dynamo Kyiv 2-0 to get their Conference League campaign up and running. They occupy fifth place in the Premier League table at time of writing.
Style of Play
Glasner is committed to the 3-4-2-1 system which he’s favoured throughout his career, and which he’s transposed successfully to England — unlike Ruben Amorim, at Manchester United. The Eagles set up to play in transition, relying on two holding midfielders to screen the three man defence, with their wingbacks supporting the narrow attacking trio on the break. When it works, as against Liverpool, it can be both devastating and an awful lot of fun to watch. When confronted by a cautious opponent, as was the case with both Sunderland and Nottingham Forest at Selhurst Park – they can struggle to create good openings.
With a share of possession of just 39.8%, the visitors rank 19th in the division, and their passing success of 78.9% ranks 16th. As a transition team, Palace are quite direct, with 14.1% of their passes going long. They favour attacking down their left side, generating 12.2 attempts on goal per 90 minutes (eighth ranked). The Eagles are creating big chances, demonstrated by an xG of 11.2, but are not taking them efficiently, having scored just eight times. They do have four goals from set-pieces so far this term, so are a proven threat from deadball situations.
Defensively, the South Londoners have allowed a sizeable volume of efforts on their goal — a 13th-ranked 12.5 per 90. However, the quality of attempts have been generally low, as Palace’s xGA is just 6.7 and they are outperforming even those numbers, having shipped a mere three goals.
Team Assessment
In goal, Dean Henderson is carrying on the impressive form he demonstrated last term. His save percentage of 78.6 is a significant improvement and his long-ball distribution is also strong. At wingback, the reliable Tyrick Mitchell will line up on the left, with the adventurous Daniel Muñoz on the right. Palace’s well-drilled central defensive trio of Guéhi, Chris Richards and Maxence Lacroix have – alongside the wingbacks – played every league minute so far.
Adam Wharton will definitely line up as one of the visitor’s two holding midfielders. The England man is positionally disciplined and often acts as the team’s deep-lying pivot, with his range of accurate mid-range passing; Wharton’s 2.5 key passes per 90 leads the side. Alongside him will be either experienced all-rounder Will Hughes, or Glasner’s old player from Eintracht Frankfurt, Daichi Kamada.
In front of the holding players, are Palace’s two narrow wingers, or attacking midfielders, likely to be the pacy Ismaila Sarr, alongside the lively Pino. One-time rumoured Everton target Sarr, who played at Marseille with Iliman Ndiaye, is Palace’s leading league scorer, with three goals. He’s a fast and direct runner, and offers a counterpoint to Pino, who is adept at finding pockets of space between the lines. The powerful, clinical Jean-Philippe Mateta has scored thirty league goals over the previous two campaigns and is almost the perfect lone striker for Glasner’s system.
Prediction
A few questions have been asked of David Moyes — for the first time since his successful return to Everton back in January. Partly, this is a result of raised expectations, with the club’s aspirations rightly being talked up by the man himself, and excitement over a newfound ability to spend money on new players. This is all perfectly normal, although in the age of social media, reactions to mini-slumps in form are often outsized.
There’s been some balancing talk regarding Everton being a team in transition, with a fairly large turnover in the squad since last season, and although this is true, in terms of raw numbers, the Blues starting eleven has only really seen two changes, in the additions of Jack Grealish and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, which is hardly a lot for a team to cope with. The recent issues have been more down to Moyes underusing what is, for once, a decent bench, along with a change in the team’s style of play, to one favouring more possession.
To a degree, this is a natural evolution, which adding better footballers will produce, but it’s clearly also a managerial decision for the Toffees to try to dictate play more, and to play through Grealish and Ndiaye on the wings. This is not getting the best from Beto, or (at the moment) the team’s new striker Thierno Barry, who are both struggling to play with their back to goal. Directing play to the wingers, who lack effective fullback support from Jake O’Brien and Vitaliy Mykolenko, is also making Everton appear predictable in attack, and quite easily contained.
At home, it’s unlikely that what will be an unchanged Blues side, with the exception being the probable inclusion of Carlos Alcaraz for the suspended Dewsbury-Hall, will play more cagily against Palace. I expect Everton to again look to force the action, through Grealish and Ndiaye, which in theory plays into the visitors’ hands. I can see the Eagles countering with pace on the hosts with regularity, should the team’s attacks falter — as West Ham did on Monday, in the second half. Even without the still-injured Jarrad Branthwaite, the Toffees defence is solid, but they are vulnerable to speed in transition.
If Moyes sets up in the manner of last season, giving Palace more of the ball than they are comfortable with, and looks to break on the counterattacking team, as occurred at Selhurst Park in February, then I can see Everton getting the win. However, I’ve seen no sign as yet that the manager will deviate from the current relatively possession-heavy approach, and I think that the visitors are well equipped to blunt that style of play — and to exploit it. Consequently, I feel a draw would be a good result for the Blues, though this is not a scenario which I have great confidence in them attaining.
Prediction: Everton 1-1 Crystal Palace
Statistics provided courtesy of fbref.com, transfermarkt.com and whoscored.com
