The Minnesota Vikings somehow managed to take the lead for a brief moment before suffering a well-deserved loss to the Chicago Bears at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Here are some thoughts:
PAGING JIM MORA
At 4-6, 2-3
in the NFC, and with a daunting schedule ahead, playoff hopes are probably finished. Yeah, yeah, mathematically this and scenario that, but c’mon now. We’re now 10 games into the season, and aside from the Bengals game, the Vikings have played complementary, playoff-quality football for, what, maybe five quarters? I’ll dust off the playoff talking points if we somehow manage to get back to .500 in December, but if I had to bet, they’re put away for safekeeping until next September. But, hey, stranger things have happened. In fact, Stranger Things is back. A sign? Connect the dots, insert copious amounts of purple bias, and add some water… maybe? It would (likely) take going 6-1 the rest of the way for a team that couldn’t even manage back-to-back wins by Thanksgiving.
In reality, I harbor no illusions about who we are. Like many others, I dismissed the oddsmakers setting an 8.5 over/under for the Vikings this offseason. We had won 14 games and improved on defense and the offensive line. Sure, we had a 22-year-old first-time starter behind center – but we also had KOC, the reigning NFL Coach of the Year and certified quarterback wizard. Naturally, there would be a learning curve and some developmental hiccups, which might mean three or four fewer wins at most. Now, the under on the 8.5 might seem the safest bet. Yuck. How are we now 1-4 at U.S. Bank Stadium?
HEY, ANOTHER J.J. MCCARTHY TAKE (A DEEPER DIVE)
Others here at the DN have already chimed in here, here, and elsewhere. I went into it briefly last week, and my view remains the same. To recap:
I’m guilty of falling in love with the idea of immediate success, which has been somewhat common for first-time starting quarterbacks over the past decade: Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix all made the playoffs. You could even consider Jordan Love, despite his unique situation. Given the coaching staff, the roster, and being in the building for an entire season, it didn’t seem far-fetched that McCarthy would be the next on that list. At the very least, no factors were working against it, like what happened to Caleb Williams last year.
…This is simply opening the door slightly to the idea that, at the end of the day, maybe 2025 is just about McCarthy’s development. Maybe 2026 is the play. I hate the idea too, but ignoring it isn’t a solution either.
Either way, take a deep breath, everyone. For those in the DN game threads and across social media who declare McCarthy a bust or label him Ponder 2.0…After…Four…Games…please R-E-L-A-X. Meet context, perspective, and patience. They are your friends. Embrace them.
Well, it’s now five games. The naysayers had several 18-wheelers full of rhetorical ammunition delivered in the form of another horrible McCarthy performance. It pains me to say that, but sometimes the truth hurts. Per Kevin Seifert of ESPN, McCarthy was four for 16 on passes of 10+ yards. Heading into the third quarter, he had a quarterback rating of 22.6. It apparently dipped below 20.0 at some point before settling at 44.7 for the game. His passer rating for the season now sits at just 61.7, and his QBR at a paltry 26.6.
Accuracy issues remain a significant concern. Too many balls are still getting batted down at the line of scrimmage. Gimme throws he’d have made easily at Michigan are being missed. The offensive line performed well; time was not an issue on most of the drop-backs. I can’t imagine what McCarthy’s performance metrics look like from the second and third quarters this year, but it must be a grim picture.
Risks Were Known
I’m a huge James Bond fan. One of my favorite (and underrated) movies in the franchise is License to Kill. In it, Bond goes on an unauthorized quest to avenge his close friend and CIA counterpart, Felix Leiter, who was fed to the sharks—literally. Bond’s boss, M, catches on and orders him to resume a previously planned mission immediately. The following dialogue ensues:
Bond: “I’m not finished here, sir. I owe it to Leiter. He’s put his life on the line for me many times…”
M: “Oh, spare me this sentimental rubbish! He knew the risks.”
KAM and KOC knew the risks. Pairing an incredibly expensive, win-now roster with a 22-year-old quarterback who had never started an NFL game was a bold, high-stakes, push-all-the-chips-into-the-center-of-the-table move. Now, they’re figuratively being fed to the sharks on DN game threads and across social media. I’ve seen it. I’m sure you’ve seen it. It hasn’t been fun to witness.
That being said, it comes with the territory, especially in the visceral, reactionary, instant-take world driven by apps. At the end of the day, however, KAM and KOC get paid the big bucks to get it right. I’m just a jabroni with a laptop. I’m not breaking any news by saying that their tenures may be defined by what happens with McCarthy.
But you know what? The story isn’t over…not by a long shot.
It Grinds My Gears
To quote Peter Griffin: “You know what really grinds my gears?” I was a regular on the DN daily threads and across the online Vikings community. The general view after 2020, 2021, and 2022 was probably about 70-30 in favor of “ditch Cousins, draft a QBOTF.” That’s probably understating it. Now that we’ve done that, a good portion of those same folks want to give up on McCarthy after just five freakin’ starts.
Same with the Sam Darnold revisionist history. The guy was persona non grata with the overwhelming majority of the fanbase after his spectacular collapse. Say he was brought back at the cost of delaying the McCarthy era by another year? The online reaction would have been furious. Hey, can I get an update on Darnold? Did he get his revenge against the Rams last week or not?
Not Playing the Game
I’ve said it before, I’m not going to play the blame game when I wouldn’t have done much, if anything, differently after the playoff debacle against the Rams.
I felt the calculation with McCarthy was sound. Considering Jim Harbaugh’s mentorship, KOC’s track record, the examples mentioned earlier, and the fact that he had been in the building for a whole year, the case for a 2024 Daniels/Nix-type season or a 2023 C.J. Stroud campaign was persuasive.
It now looks like we could be in for a more traditional trajectory in terms of McCarthy’s development. That might mean a full season of NFL starts before we truly see what KOC called “seeing the cement dry” on things the coaching staff has focused on since the offseason. The final seven games of the season will then be about achieving key developmental goals—such as slowing the game down to maximize efficient processing, fixing mechanics, strengthening fundamentals, and improving accuracy.
Oh, and it would also help if our receivers had fewer drops. That, too.
As is typical with today’s hyperactive media, I’m already seeing the inevitable speculation start on potential trades/reclamation projects (Kyler Murray, Mac Jones, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis). Oh, so primarily the same strategy that’s produced a whopping three playoff wins in the last 20 years? C’mon, people.
Patience is a virtue. If this season ends with a disappointing 6-8 wins and no playoff appearance, there’s no reason to give up now. It was clearly not the initial plan, as all evidence suggests. KAM and KOC may have miscalculated. That doesn’t mean we won’t look back on this season ten years from now and laugh at some of the overreaction and panic. Sometimes the biggest plays come from an audible.
You Gotta Have Faith
Hope isn’t gone. Sure, horseshoes and hand grenades, but you should feel encouraged that, despite McCarthy’s immense struggles and having no right to be in such a position, we actually led the Bears game with 50 seconds left. How would the narrative have changed if Cairo Santos missed that field goal?
With the notable exception of the Chargers debacle, the defense has played well enough to win the Eagles and Ravens games despite some ugly quarterback play. The Lions game was outstanding.
That doesn’t mean we can’t tighten some things up and improve on that side of the ball. We gave up two more killer 3rd-and-long plays in the second half. We might be on pace to whiff on 20 gimme sacks this season. Oh, and there’s this…
It’s so frustrating. You’d think the tide will turn on all these unlucky trends. It just has to. Then again, we are the Vikings. But it seems like the law of averages has to work in our favor. Then again (again), we are the Vikings.
OH, YEAH…THE PACKERS
One of the worst parts of this McCarthy-driven drama is that we can’t sit back and enjoy the Packers’ recent struggles. They’ve lost two of their last three games, and the “win” was against a 2-9 Giants team that was missing its best players. I came into the season believing the Packers would mostly be the same team as in 2024, and they’re heading in that direction.
On offense, there’s some inconsistency. The Packers have scored 27 or more points seven times but 16 or fewer three times. Overall, they rank 13th in points per game (24.0), 11th in passing (230.5 yards), and 19th in rushing (113.5 yards). The usual legal holding technique the Packers’ offensive line has perfected over the years is still evident, as they rank in the Top 10 for fewest sacks allowed (5th) and sack percentage (8th). Yeah, this would be a great time to actually get the quarterback to the ground whenever we have the chance. Unlike, you know, the season so far. Just saying.
On defense, it’s hard to admit, but this Packers unit is legit: seventh in points per game (19.6), sixth in yards allowed per game (292.1), tenth in passing (195.3), and seventh in rushing (96.8). Unlike the Bears, the Packers aren’t overly dependent on turnovers, as they’ve surprisingly forced fewer than the Vikings (29th – only eight total). They’re tied for 16th in sacks with 24, and blitz just 18.8% of the time (sixth-lowest). I’d be surprised if they don’t increase the pressure more on Sunday to rattle a struggling McCarthy and force quicker reads – and, consequently, mistakes. A bright spot? It looks like we might get Ryan Kelly back, so our starting five offensive linemen could finally be on the field together… in Week 12.
Prediction
In forecasting the 2025 season back in May, I had this to say regarding Week 12:
Week 12: @Green Bay Packers: I expect the Packers to be about who they were last year: good, potentially a Wild Card team, but nothing spectacular. Winning at Lambeau is never easy, however, regardless of how good the Packers are. The Packers ran out of clock last year; if the game had gone another 5 minutes, we’d probably have lost (after being up 28-7 at halftime). I’m on the fence with this one. OK, I’m convinced: We win (albeit not easily, at all). Let’s say a McCarthy to Addison TD pass to win it with 25 seconds left. That works.
Minnesota Vikings: 24
Green Bay Packers: 23
Yeah, about that. Well, I have some good news and some bad news.
The bad news? Given the circumstances, I can’t in good conscience pick us to win this game. We weren’t able to reach 20 points against the much weaker Ravens and Bears defenses at home. I think our defense will be game, but it might not be able to hold the Packers to what it may take to win this one (21 or less).
The good news? Every time I’ve chosen the Vikings to lose so far, they’ve won. Reverse psychology FTW!
Packers: 26
Vikings: 21
