Luka Dončić is my comfort watch.
Between the routine silky stepbacks, verbal spats with referees and effortless first-quarter scoring outbursts, I find the inevitability of his game soothing. It’s like watching a rerun. Even though the opposition and defensive coverages change, the NBA’s Columbo always figures out the mystery by the end of the night.
Although a debate could be had over who the best player in the league is, Dončić may be the most reliable from a raw production standpoint. His final
line in the boxscore? That can be written in permanent marker before tipoff. You know what you’re gonna get from him in every aspect. Good and bad. This is why the discourse surrounding him for most of the year has been odd.
Regardless of his output, Dončić is spoken about and analyzed through the lens of his flaws rather than his strengths. Holding stars to high standards isn’t new or unwarranted, especially in relation to the MVP conversation. Still, there should be equal appreciation for the season he is having without the need to compare it to his elite peers or past work. That’s because he’s probably been even better than you think.
The counting stats remain absurd: 33.7 points, 8.2 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game with ease. And despite preseason projections suggesting the Lakers would flirt with the play-in tournament, Dončić has helped Los Angeles all but secure the third seed and home court in a loaded Western Conference.
Both he and the Lakers are hitting their stride at the right time. Winners of 11 of their last 12 games, the Lakers are looking every bit like the team fans hoped for. This is largely due to Dončić’s unbelievable play of late.
Dončić has somehow elevated to an even higher level with playoff seeding implications on the line, averaging 39.7 points, 8.1 rebounds and 6.9 assists on 63% true shooting during this recent stretch. It’s been such a magical run that his teammates have had no choice but to rally behind it.
“Obviously, he’s the head honcho when it comes to our offensive power,” LeBron James said following the team’s Friday night win over the Brooklyn Nets. ”He’s just in an unbelievable rhythm right now, shooting the three ball exceptionally well, getting to the line as he always does and being super efficient. We’re all just playing off of him.”
It’s the type of stretch that should catapult Dončić back into the MVP conversation after taking a backseat to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic for most of the year. At least that’s what his teammates and coach believe.
“I don’t know why not,” Austin Reaves said when asked whether Dončić should be receiving more MVP consideration. “[He’s] leading the league in scoring. I seen something [that] he was leading the league in a lot of things. We’re third in the West. I don’t know. I couldn’t see a reason why he’s not [in the MVP discussion]. I don’t think what I say is going to matter but he definitely should be in that conversation.”
Dončić’s production this season has raised the Lakers’ floor so high it’s beginning to touch their ceiling. Despite an abundance of games missed by key players and the tricky task of integrating new faces and personalities, the team has stayed afloat thanks to what Dončić provides every night. It’s an accomplishment that shouldn’t be overlooked, even if it is the expectation.
”It’s a special run that he’s on,” head coach JJ Redick said after Dončić‘s 60-point outburst against the Miami Heat. “We’ve seen all-time greats like him go on these runs and you just kind of got to embrace it and enjoy the moment…to the MVP point, we would not be anywhere near the position we’re in without him having the season he’s having. Particularly of late, he’s dominating right now.”
Even by his lofty standards, Dončić is having one of the best offensive seasons of his career. He’s on track to win the scoring title. He’s done it on the second-best points per shot attempt and true shooting percentage of his career. He’s converting a career-best 82% of his shots at the rim. And has done it all while carrying the highest usage rate (38.1%) he’s ever had.
While his offensive brilliance has not been surprising, it’s been the continued strides on defense that have.
Although Dončić is likely never going to make an All-Defense team and still could be a weak link on that end, he also is not as detrimental as what many make him out to be — especially of late.
Individually, Dončić has been arguably the Lakers’ best defensive playmaker. He leads the team in total steals, is second in deflections, third in blocks (most among their non-centers) and third in charges drawn.
From a team perspective, his work on the glass is often an underdiscussed, valuable defensive trait. Dončić is still an elite defensive rebounder at his position, ranking in the 98th percentile among all players categorized as “point guards” this season. To see how much of an impact he makes on ending defensive possessions, look no further than how the Lakers have performed this season when he’s been on the floor compared to off.
Teams are rebounding their own misses 30.1% of the time when Dončić is on the bench, compared to just 27.1% when he’s on the court. That may not seem like a big distinction, but in reality, it’s the difference between being ranked 23rd or fifth.
Even with all the data out there, it will continue to be difficult to fully capture Dončić’s impact on winning games.
Yes, you can point to the Lakers being better on both sides when he’s on the floor. And yes, you can even point to new metrics like the one that states he has the most on-ball perimeter gravity in the league. But at the end of the day, even the most quantifiable minutiae will fail to calculate how precious simply having the best player nearly every game is for teammates, coaches and the front office.
What these numbers and the season Dončić is having ultimately prove is that the Lakers have one of the best players on the planet on their team. They have the cornerstone. The vision of their future now has a face and a name.
And while a physical reward at the end of it would be nice, the assurance Dončić provides is so much more valuable than any number on a spreadsheet or MVP trophy.
All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass unless otherwise stated. You can follow Alex on Bluesky at @alexregla.bsky.social.
