The Hawkeyes have what is undoubtedly their biggest game of the year on Saturday, and likely the biggest they’ve had at home in several years as they play host to the #9 Oregon Ducks.
With this weekend’s matchup against Oregon prefacing a trip out west to the #19 USC Trojans, there are potentially massive implications. Win on Saturday and Iowa goes from a team few had been talking about to firmly in the College Football Playoff discussion ahead of that matchup with the Trojans. Lose and we’re back
an 8-4 or 9-3 season with any hopes for something truly special officially down the tubes.
For their part, Vegas is not optimistic about Iowa’s chances. Oregon remains a 6.5-point favorite as of Friday afternoon with an over/under at 42.5 total points according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Even more than the Vegas line, it’s worth noting that more than 85% of the total bets on FanDuel have been on Oregon to win and cover the spread.
In Hawkeye Nation, however, people are much more optimistic. While our staff was largely on the Ducks, a full 70% (!!) of respondents to this week’s Reacts poll are taking Iowa to not only cover, but to win outright over Oregon inside Kinnick Stadium.
That’s a massive number and in stark contrast to when we polled the community on individual game predictions at the outset of the season. In those initial polls, more than 90% of respondents picked Iowa to lose this week.
So, what’s changed?
For starters, it’s safe to say this defense is playing better than most of us expected when the season opened. We all know better than to question Phil Parker, and yet there were simply a lot of question marks on defense coming into the season. Phil has answered those and we once again find ourselves in the luxurious position of having a top-10 defense nationally.
Maybe more importantly, however, this offense has proven both competent and efficient. No, the passing numbers aren’t going to excite anyone and the total offense is still middling as a result. But Iowa is top-20 nationally in points per play and RedZone efficiency. The impact of Tim Lester and Mark Gronowski is hard to fully put into words and the result is genuine optimism about the offensive side of the ball.
Oh, and then there’s the weather.
It’s been talked about plenty, but the forecast for Saturday is not great if you’re a fan planning to be in attendance, or perhaps if you’re someone looking for the greatest show on turf. Temps are expected to start in the low 40s and drift into the 30s as the game progresses. Rain is expected most of the day, transitioning to a wintry mix and eventually snow and the wind is expected to be steady in the 10-15 mph range with gusts north of 20 mph.
That’s a problem if you’re counting on big plays and lots of offensive production. If you’re looking to muddy things up and mash faces in a rock fight, on the other hand, this is nearly a perfect recipe.
Can Iowa actually pull off the upset? We’ll find out at 2:30pm CT on Saturday on CBS!
