Whenever a team finds itself alone in a category except for the New York Jets, it most likely has fallen on hard times. That’s where the Falcons are when it comes to playoff appearances since 2020. After the Panthers won the NFC South last season, only the Falcons and Jets remain as teams that haven’t made the playoffs in the 2020s.
Considering the state of the NFC South since Tom Brady retired after the 2022 season, it’s unfathomable that the Falcons haven’t won the division. They made significant
free agency investments in 2023 and 2024 to put themselves in a position to bring playoff football back to Atlanta. They swept the team that finished in first place in Tampa Bay in 2024. The front office went all in on drafting two highly regarded edge rushers in the first round to address the most significant flaw on the roster last year. None of it has resulted in making a playoff appearance.
Three consecutive disappointing years have led to multiple coaching changes, four starting quarterbacks, and exceptional players on both sides of the ball deserving so much better. It has left a fanbase largely jaded. From the Arthur Smith-Desmond Ridder debacle in 2023 to Kirk Cousins collapsing in 2024 to Raheem Morris losing control last year, the consistent failure has been heavy for a franchise that can’t figure things out.
Matt Ryan becoming the Falcons’ President of Football provided a much-needed spark. It will take much more than the return of a franchise legend to inject optimism into a franchise that hasn’t made the playoffs since Nick Foles’ peak. New coach Kevin Stefanski needs to build a true identity. Ian Cunningham must prove his promising start as general manager leads to lasting success. That starts with young players emerging on one of the league’s oldest rosters.
Whether the Falcons make the playoffs or not won’t determine their success in 2026. Several personnel concerns exist across the roster, none bigger than at the sport’s most important position. Putting playoff expectations on a team that doesn’t know which quarterback will start the most games for them isn’t practical. That shouldn’t prevent them from making strides as a franchise. The revamped coaching staff and promising talent are there for genuine growth in Atlanta.
Overcoming quarterback uncertainty through coaching
Other than Kevin O’Connell, it’s hard to find a current head coach who has endured more quarterback instability yet still found ways to succeed than Stefanski. You lose count trying to remember all the different signal callers he had to work with for six seasons in Cleveland. That’s a challenge the two-time Coach of the Year will have to take on again in 2026. The difference is he has a more solidified offensive infrastructure with legitimate firepower.
A trio of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts creates exciting possibilities no matter who is under center. An offensive line returning four starters, with Bill Callahan coaching them, provides stability that was lost in his final years in Cleveland. The pieces are there to construct an efficient offense that can outscore teams, even with the glaring quarterback limitations.
Diversifying the run game will be crucial in controlling tempo and wearing down opposing fronts. After relying too heavily on outside zone for multiple seasons, adding more gap-scheme concepts should bring more consistency on the ground.
Increasing play-action usage and more varied formations are other potential schematic assets that Stefanski brings to the table. The overall offense needed a total reset after it became so predictable under Zac Robinson.
Questions linger about the game plan, whether it’s for Tua Tagovailoa early in the year and perhaps Michael Penix Jr. later on. There’s also skepticism about Tommy Rees as offensive coordinator, as Cleveland ranked 30th in EPA per play when he took over play-calling duties in Week 10 last season.
While the Falcons’ offense is significantly more talented, can Rees work with Stefanski to help maximize the quarterback’s capabilities? Whether it’s a quick-pass, heavy RPO system with Tagovailoa or a more aggressive shotgun-based plan with Penix Jr., the Falcons invested too much into their offense to be below average.
Stefanski worked wonders with Cleveland in 2020 and 2023 when expectations weren’t exactly high. Some of it came from utilizing heavier personnel packages, running 12 and 13 looks, creating more high-percentage looks in the passing game, and putting the offense in better down-and-distances. Attacking defenses with a wide variety of screens was another key component to his success.
These are ideal strategies the Falcons can use, given where they stand at quarterback and wide receiver. That said, Stefanski must be decisive, alongside Rees, to execute his vision with the right quarterback on the current roster. Based on how much Tagovailoa has struggled this summer, Penix Jr. appears to be his best option, but Penix is not ready to start just yet.
Staying afloat defensively while a stellar secondary establishes itself
Jeff Ulbrich deserves enormous praise for the defense’s elevation last season. After his return to Atlanta initially underwhelmed many people, he silenced critics with his pressure plans and coverage variation. The franchise record for most sacks in a season was broken without a game-changing edge rusher on the roster, with defensive line coach Nate Ollie also deserving major credit. While James Pearce Jr. broke the franchise record for most sacks by a rookie in a season, he didn’t take over games. It took a cohesive effort for them to overwhelm some of the league’s best offenses in dramatic upset victories.
Many of the players who were at the forefront of their success aren’t with the team going into the season. According to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Daniel Flick, only 28.1% of the sack production will be on the opening-day roster. That total will increase when Pearce Jr. returns from suspension in Week 9. That won’t change the fact that this is a major obstacle for Ulbrich to overcome.
Losing Jalon Walker for the season was a devastating blow after his promising rookie season. While it’s encouraging that the new regime was proactive in signing ZaDarius Smith and trading for Gervon Dexter Sr. to add talent up front, it’s difficult to envision the front imposing their will on many offensive lines.
That not only increases the pressure on Ulbrich to call more twists and blitzes. It raises expectations for an ultra-talented secondary to lead the overall unit.
Expectations must be high when a group features an All-Pro safety, Pro Bowl-caliber cornerback, an emerging ball-hawking safety, and two promising cornerbacks, as well as a well-regarded secondary coach in Justin Hood. It likely won’t happen on opening day, but Jessie Bates, A.J. Terrell, Xavier Watts, Avieon Terrell, and Billy Bowman Jr. should be on the field together at some point. Assembling those five players should fluster quarterbacks and produce turnovers.
I wrote about how special the secondary can be a month ago. While Mike Hughes will start the season, things could change as Avieon Terrell proves he can handle playing significant snaps and Bowman Jr. is healthy. Bates and Watts are consistently around the ball, attempting to make game-changing plays. A.J. Terrell is quietly coming off one of his better years. This group has all the pieces to take a significant leap to become one of the league’s best.
Along with Divine Deablo, it’s the best hope to keep the defense stabilized after enduring significant losses. Brandon Dorlus’ rapid ascendance, with Maason Smith and Dexter Sr. becoming dependable, will be pivotal. The possibility of Kendal Daniels or Harold Perkins Jr. emerging as a three-down linebacker creates more long-term progression for a unit that will feel the loss of Kaden Elliss in a multitude of ways.
There are no certainties up front, but the unit is talented enough to stay solidified, managing through concerns at edge rusher, interior tackle, and inside linebacker opposite Deablo. Ulbrich has proven his units can thrive while coping with personnel flaws in certain areas. He knows how to maximize limited and unproven players’ skill sets while bringing out the best in his leaders.
His defense still has franchise cornerstone players in Bates, Deablo, and Terrell, with young standouts like Watts and Dorlus taking on expanded roles. How the unit holds up and develops in the trenches will determine whether they stay on a steady path or revert to the dreaded space of attempting to bend, not break.
Don’t beat yourself. Rise to the occasion against the upper echelon
One of the main reasons the Falcons couldn’t win a historically bad NFC South last season or a very winnable division in 2024 was the previous coaching staff’s propensity to mismanage games in crucial moments. In what was essentially a playoff-eliminating defeat to Washington,
Morris failed to use one of his two remaining timeouts on a potential game-winning drive with Penix Jr. making his second career start. In a primetime loss to San Francisco, the defense had only ten players on the field on 3rd and 13 with less than three minutes left, leading to a 17-yard completion to Christian McCaffrey.
To quote my colleague Kevin Knight from his piece last December about Morris, the Falcons played losing football under him. The new regime can’t afford to make similar self-inflicted errors to put players at a disadvantage.
It happened far too often under the previous regime, from constant pre-snap penalties to special teams breakdowns. Players must be held accountable in instances, but those issues becoming a weekly habit indicates how poorly coached the team was.
The Falcons will lose their share of games in 2026. They face five playoff teams in their first seven games, which is followed by matchups against the Bengals, Chiefs, and Vikings. Let’s not forget the daunting task of facing the Ravens at the start of the season. They will be overmatched at times. They will take their dosages of punishment on both sides of the ball. What they can’t do is crumble because of their lack of discipline.
Stefanski needs to have this group ready to compete in these arduous battles. They proved they can defy expectations last season by beating the Bills and Rams on Monday Night Football. They should have beaten the Colts when they were on top of the AFC. The same can be said for when they nearly beat the Patriots. There hasn’t been a significant drop-off in talent where they can’t be competitive against the Steelers, Packers, Bears, and 49ers.
Moral victories don’t exist in locker rooms, but frequent one-sided blowout losses can eradicate the belief within an organization. Playing inspired, competitive football with the knack of earning divisional wins and pushing potential Super Bowl contenders to the brink is the realistic recipe for success in 2026.
All-Pro caliber players continue to drive the team. Young difference-makers start to emerge on both sides of the ball. The coaching staff establishes an identity that serves as a launching pad for future success. Times will get very difficult for the Falcons this season.
That doesn’t make it a foregone conclusion that this year will be a total calamity as games become irrelevant come December. They have the foundational pieces to overcome tough defeats and push forward into 2027.
