Here we go. The first top 10 versus top 10 matchup in LaVell Edwards Stadium history. No. 8 BYU hosts No. 2 Notre Dame in a huge clash in Provo at 5:30pm MT. The Irish come in as a 10.5-point favorite with serious national championship hopes. Both teams hope to be included in the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket.
Can BYU win? Of course. It’s college football. Oklahoma State beat Oregon as a 24.5-point underdog a few weeks ago. How can BYU pull the upset? These five things need to happen.
Don’t
get down multiple scores early
This is certainly easier said than done. BYU can’t afford to play catch-up early. Or really, ever. Notre Dame has the firepower and the physicality to put a game on ice early if they can. They rank in the top 40 of the FBS in both rushing and passing first downs gained. If they get up multiple scores and can play keep-away with BYU, that doesn’t bode well. BYU’s biggest chance to win is for their defense to keep them competitive and their offense stay within striking distance. But if BYU needs to get out of their gameplan early, the Irish can pin their ears back and get after Bear Bachmeier to thwart a furious comeback.
At least +1 in turnover margin
The formula for any underdog is to get takeaways. That gives their own offense some short fields and more scoring opportunities. Conversely, if the Cougars turn the ball over, they will have little chance to win this game. The last thing they need is for the Irish to get extra possessions. Even if the Cougars turn it over once, they can still recover as long as their opportunistic defense can return the favor. BYU ranks 25th in turnover margin at +4. However, Notre Dame is the second-best team in the country at +13.
Explosive passing plays to open up run game
BYU will only be able to win this game if they can move the ball effectively. With no LJ Martin, the Irish likely will start the game not respecting the run game. Their talented secondary will feel like they can play at ease, keeping everything in front of them. If BYU can hit some downfield shots, such as a big pass to Legend Glasker, that will force Notre Dame’s defense to re-think their strategy. If the defense has to spread out to keep up with the possible deep threat, the Cougars will have a better shot at being able to run the ball and keep the chains moving. BYU doesn’t win this game without Bachmeier, Tonga, and Rex getting some key first downs on the ground.
Touchdowns in the red zone
If the Cougars offense gets the ball moving into the redzone, they can’t afford to keep settling for field goals. They will need to finish the job more often than not. BYU’s current average of turning red zone trips to touchdowns is 73.4%, which is 19th-best in the country. To beat a team like Notre Dame, the Cougars will need to convert at a better clip than that. Given how good both defenses are, a few field goals certainly won’t hurt. But if the Cougars want to turn this from a competitive loss to a big, field-storming upset win, they need to score a few touchdowns too.
Pressure CJ Carr without blitzing
Carr is one of the highest graded quarterbacks in college football when being blitzed. He ranks third in passer rating when blitzed in the whole FBS. Needless to say, BYU should pick their spots carefully if Kelly Poppinga’s squad wants to blitz. The foursome of Keanu Tanuvasa, Bodie Schoonover, Nusi Taumoepeau, and Tausili Akana need to do most of the heavy lifting in the pass rush. If Carr can just sit back and assess the coverage, he’s talented enough to make plays. If the Cougars have to start blitzing him in order to generate pressure, that leaves the defense vulnerable to big plays if Carr finds the hole.
