On Tuesday night, the College Football Playoff (CFP) committee released the third installment of its rankings for the 2025 season.
After a blowout win over NC State, Miami continued the arduous task of
climbing their way up the rankings and into a potential at-large berth spot for the Playoff bracket.
The Full CFP rankings, including the first few teams on the outside looking in. Miami, by virtue of being the highest ranked ACC team at present, is IN THE BRACKET PROJECTION!
There’s a lot going on here. Miami will need to win out to get to 10-2 and put themselves in position for a CFP berth, but that path continues to be open. Miami’s path to the ACC Championship Game depends on more specific results going their way, but that’s another story we’ve already discussed on the site.
Last week I wrote that the situation was less “win and you’re in” (and Miami couldn’t even do that), and instead “win and hope other teams mess up to help cover for your previous failures”. This continues to be the case for the Canes.
According to our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, Miami started the season at +4000 to win the National Championship. That number fell to +2200 and +1600 through the month of September, hitting a low of +900 after Miami beat Florida State. Following the 2nd loss of the year at SMU, Miami’s odds ballooned to +12,500.
With the blowout win over NC State, Miami’s odds to win the National Championship have continued to improve week over week. Last week, the number was Miami +10000. Now, the current number: Miami +6500. These odds are tied with Utah as we head into week 13. I love the fact that the odds are improving. And they’ll keep improving as Miami keeps winning.
There are a couple of things working in Miami’s favor looking forward. First, Notre Dame is still ranked highly (unconscionably at #9 compared to Miami’s #13), but that win over the Irish holds weight. Or, it could in the future.
So, lemme get this straight. The committee put more weight on Notre Dame’s loss to Miami, than to Miami’s win over Notre Dame? Cool. Makes sense. Got it.
This is the hope for Miami. Oklahoma is ranked 2 places ahead of Alabama, whom they beat last weekend head to head. So, if we’re using that precedent as the foundation like Hunter Yurachek said, then Miami should be ranked at least 2 spots ahead of Notre Dame at the end of the year if both are 10-2 after the regular season. Again, that’s what Yurachek said is the standard process and valuation of a H2H win. So, prove it, committee.
If you thought these games were impactful in the past, this has reached critical levels now. There are 2 games to go in this regular season. The job for Miami is the same now as it was previously: go win them all. The goal is clear: get to 10-2 and force the committee to do the right and logical thing and put Miami in the CFP over a Notre Dame team they beat head to head this season. Period.
There is literally nothing else to do but go win, and you’re likely in.
Blow out Virginia Tech this weekend, and turn the focus to Pitt to make the 10-2 regular season a reality, and with it, a more-than-likely trip to the College Football Playoffs.
