The Illini have started the season 2-0 with blowout victories over Fairleigh Dickinson and Penn inside the State Farm Center. However, Tuesday night in Lubbock will present their first major test of the season. The matchup will feature two top-20 teams inside United Supermarkets Arena and has the potential to be one of the best games of the young season.
Illinois held off Texas Tech 81-77 in the first meeting between the two teams last season in Champaign. That victory set the tone for the Illini’s
season and provided them with a valuable Quad 1 win. A similar opportunity will be on the line in Tuesday night’s rematch.
Unfortunately, JT Toppin and David Mirkovic will not be in action Tuesday night. A matchup between the two big men would have been exciting to watch, as both are expected to be All-American candidates if they play enough games this season.
Despite playing on the road in a hostile environment, Illinois enters the matchup as a 1.5-point favorite.
Limiting turnovers will be the biggest key for the Illini if they want to leave Lubbock with a victory.
Illinois had one of the best offenses in the country last season and has looked like an offensive juggernaut once again this year. The Illini are averaging 116 points per game through their first two contests and currently rank No. 1 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They should be able to continue that offensive success against Texas Tech, but taking care of the basketball will be critical against the Red Raiders.
The Illini were one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the ball last season, but that has not been the case through their first two games this year. The increase in turnovers could be a byproduct of playing at a much faster pace, but finding a balance between pushing the tempo and protecting the basketball will be important moving forward.
Illinois committed 19 turnovers against Penn on Thursday night, and that number will need to improve against a much tougher Texas Tech defense.
According to Bart Torvik, the Red Raiders rank No. 5 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and No. 2 in turnover percentage. Meanwhile, Illinois ranks just No. 120 nationally in offensive turnover percentage. That is a significant drop from last season, when the Illini finished the year ranked No. 8 in the country.
Freshman guards Ethan Brown and Quentin Coleman will be playing in their first true road games at the collegiate level. Both will need to remain composed and make protecting the basketball a priority Tuesday night if Illinois wants to secure a major nonconference victory.
There will be several factors that determine the outcome of Tuesday night’s matchup, but taking care of the basketball will be especially important. With Illinois playing at a faster pace and relying heavily on its freshmen, limiting turnovers could be the difference between leaving Lubbock with a statement win and suffering a tough road loss.
