Indiana men’s basketball will look to get to 5-0 this Thursday, hosting a 2-3 Lindenwood team that’s already seen some higher-tier competition this year. Entering the game, they are ahead of only Chicago State in Kenpom’s national rankings among remaining Indiana opponents.
Given the talent mismatch, the Hoosiers are given a 99.6% chance of victory and will be heavily favored going into the contest. As we saw Sunday against Incarnate Word though, anything can happen in college basketball.
Here are
three things to know about the game:
3-Point Shooting
The reason Indiana was unable to pull away from an inferior Incarnate Word squad was that it had its worst shooting night of the season. For a group that takes over 40% of its field goals behind the arc, this can be a problem against any opponent, and something Indiana will need to be on guard against.
Seeing as how this is one of the lower-quality opponents Indiana will see this season, the most important thing about this game will likely be how Indiana responds to its worst shooting performance of the season.
Despite shooting poorly last game, the Hoosiers still got up 24 3-point attempts, right near what they’d averaged on the year on the better shooting nights. With how this roster is built, the team is going to have to keep bringing that kind of confidence to get the shots up, whether they’re falling or not. Personally, I’d like to see another 20+ attempts.
Post scoring
The reason Indiana was able to avoid upset Sunday is that, for stretches of the game, the offense was able to utilize the passing and off-ball cutting that’s made them so successful to generate looks in the paint. The reason that the game was so close down the stretch is that Indiana abandoned that offense for a long period in the second half.
I’d still like to see a high volume of shots from deep just for the purposes of building confidence, but Darian DeVries would be well-served to use the remainder of his buy-games figuring out what his team can do in the paint.
Through four games, Indiana’s front court capabilities remain something of a mystery. Reed Bailey has looked like a viable starting center at points, but isn’t as imposing or physical inside as his backup, Sam Alexis. Given how different their games are, it doesn’t even feel settled that Bailey remains the starter from here on out.
We know this team can shoot, and are rightfully relieved. What we still need to see is what will work with consistency when the shots aren’t falling.
Defense
Lindenwood comes to Indiana with one of the least efficient offenses in the country, giving Indiana a chance to really pad its stats on that side of the ball. In many ways, they are Indiana’s Wario.
With the focus on the offensive transformation, less has been said about how DeVries has installed a defense seemingly designed to stop modern, uptempo offenses like its own. Indiana’s opponents are shooting under 30% from 3-point range, and have an assist rate of just 39%. Both these stats put Indiana’s defense in the top 20 nationally.
Unfortunately for Lindenwood, these are areas where the Lions have already struggled mightily. The team is below 25% from deep on the season, putting it in the bottom 20 nationally, with assists on just 46.3% of its baskets.
Even if Indiana takes its time to figure some new things out offensively, this is a matchup that the defense should thrive in. Look for the Hoosiers to keep Lindenwood below the 116 point threshhold that St. Louis Pharmacy school let the Lions reach earlier this season.
