Every year, ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell decides to create a list of the most likely teams to regress in the upcoming season. It’s an ominous list to be a part of, because as Bill points out, he’s more often right than not. Of his past 38 selections of teams likely to regress, 30 of them have.
His analysis is typically focused around a few critical statistics that typically don’t see year-to-year consistency: turnover margin, record in one-score games, injury rate, and strength of schedule. The argument
being, if you fell on the lucky side of those stats in 2024, you’re likely to regress in 2025.
For the Lions, those stats don’t really work against them too much. The Lions’ +9 turnover margin was eighth-best in the league, but that’s far from being a huge outlier. Their record in one-score games was 7-2, but as Barnwell points out, several of those games were not as close as the score suggested. And they weren’t as reliant on late-game luck like the Kansas City Chiefs, who miraculously went 10-0 in one-score games and had a paltry +59 point differential compared to Detroit’s +222.
“The Lions went 7-2 in one-score games, but again, they weren’t as reliant on narrow victories as the Chiefs,” Barnwell wrote. “Detroit needed a late field goal to avoid a loss to the Vikings and kicked some more as time expired to break ties against the Texans and Packers, but they also had a handful of one-score games that looked close only because of late touchdowns in garbage time by the opposing offense.”
And I probably don’t have to remind you that Detroit was far from lucky when it comes to injury. According to FTN Fantasy’s Adjusted Games Lost metric, the Lions defense not only suffered the most injuries in the league last year, but it was the sixth-worst injury luck for an NFL defense over the past 25 years. That said, Barnwell does have an interesting point when it comes to injury luck: the Lions were actually the second-healthiest team on offense last year.
So why is Barnwell predicting regression despite relatively average luck last year? The same reason everyone else is: new coordinators, moving parts on the offensive line, and a tough schedule. But even Barnwell isn’t too worried about the schedule. The Lions have fared well against good opponents as of late.
“Detroit’s schedule will be tough, but that’s nothing new for the Lions; they faced the league’s sixth-toughest slate a year ago, so moving up to its second-toughest schedule shouldn’t be overwhelming,” Barnwell wrote.
Ultimately, Barnwell concludes that Detroit’s regression will drop them all the way to a… 12- win team. He even says he’d be “shocked” if the Lions missed the playoffs. In the end, the Lions are a lay-up answer for a team to suffer regression in 2025, because Barwell is almost certainly going to be right. Since 2000, 16 teams have won 14 games or more (excluding the four that did last year). Exactly one of them matched or improved their win total the following season (the 2003 and 2004 Patriots teams both went 14-2). But of those 16 teams, 12 of them had at least 11 wins the following season. So predicting the Lions to win fewer than 15 games is not exactly a bold claim.
It’s worth noting that the Vikings also made the list of teams likely to regress, because of their high turnover rate (forced league-high 33 turnovers), extreme luck in one-score games (8-1), and new quarterback.
