Could the Buffalo Bills actually address the receiver position before the NFL trade deadline?
Right now it very much feels more likely that if a trade occurs, it’ll be for a defensive player, but you never know.
Today, let’s highlight Jaguars receiver Brian Thomas Jr., a young, naturally very gifted wideout who’s fallen on hard times and out of favor in Jacksonville’s passing game after a tremendous start to his professional career.
This article is the second in the trade-candidate series I plan to
sprinkle onto the site until the actual trade deadline until November 10, which is 20 days from now, and lands after Week 9.
Past installments in this series:
Derwin James
Age: 24
At this stage, any and almost all of the BTJ intrigue directly stems from his rookie season in 2024, when he caught 87 passes for 1,282 yards with 10 touchdowns. That year, he had a gaudy 2.45 yards-per-route-run figure and a drop rate of just 6.5%.
Last season, Thomas had a YPRR of 1.45, and his drop rate jumped to 13.5% on 90 targets. Through six games in 2026, his YPRR is a pedestrian 0.95, and his drop rate is 25.0%.
2026 snap splits
Wide: 71.6%
Slot: 28.4%
Regarding his snaps, BTJ has appeared on 43.1% of the Jaguars offensive snaps this season. He’s fourth on the team in targets. A season ago, he was on the field for 63.4% of the offensive snaps. As a rookie, Thomas’ snap rate was 79.4%.
How he’d fit with Bills
At just under 6’3” and 209 pounds with 4.33 speed, Thomas boasts prototypical size and speed to serve as a vertical-threat X on the outside in the Bills offense.
That spot is currently held by DJ Moore.
However, even if he’s built to be the downfield burner X he demonstrated he could be in 2024, resorting to the off-the-line Z wideout — the other outside receiver — would be most sensible for Thomas if the Bills were to trade for him. Yes, Keon Coleman has appeared at Z in some instances this season and has had reasonable success there.
But the Z is the role Josh Palmer has most predominantly played. It’s the wideout whose main responsibility is to take the lid of the defense to free underneath space and occasionally make a big play down the field.
Thomas can absolutely do that.
This move would likely (see: almost assuredly?) be subbing Thomas into Palmer’s spot on the field and the roster.
Financial obligation for Bills to trade for him
2026 salary: $1.07M
If the Bills trade for Thomas after Week 9, they’d be on the hook for $537k in prorated base salary. His 2027 salary is $2.79M. As a former first-round pick, he’d be eligible for the fifth-year option after that, in 2028.
The time remaining on his rookie deal remains the pillar of BTJ’s trade value. He’s incredibly cheap on the books now and in coming years.
Projected cost to acquire
Using Syndicate32.com’s trade machine, given Thomas’ clear downward spiral in productivity, the projected cost to trade for the receiver is a late Round 2 pick in 2027.
That feels ever-so-slightly high simply because Thomas is now well into his second season as a woefully ineffective receiver and he’s clearly not a big part of Jacksonville’s offensive plans. While that rookie year is a distant memory in the NFL world, it still exists, and his age and contract situation may very well support the Jaguars asking for an early Day 2 selection for the receiver.
Should the Bills trade for Brian Thomas Jr.?
For as much of a fan as I was of Thomas as a draft prospect, I don’t think at this date and time I could strongly advocate the Bills sending a second-round pick for him. If Coleman’s mini-emergence wasn’t ongoing, that would be a different story.
I absolutely believe he’s in dire need of a change of scenery, especially considering the GM and coach who drafted him in Jacksonville are long gone.
Then there’s the LSU connection. I can’t ignore that here.
While Joe Brady of course didn’t coach BTJ in Baton Rouge, it wouldn’t be crazy to assume the Bills head coach still has some LSU-based connections who could provide intel on what makes Thomas tick and how to get the best out of him in a new locale.
For as much as I’m always on the WR Train, I have accepted that the Bills need to trade for defensive help before anyone on offense.
BUT, Thomas is a youthful, cost-controlled tantalizing talent playing what I believe is the the game’s second-most important position, a spot that directly impacts Josh Allen.
If Thomas can be acquired for a third-round pick, along with a late-round throw-in, I think the Bills should seriously consider making that move.
What are your thoughts on BTJ?
