Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 25.6 points and 3.2 assists, both career-highs. Throw in his seven rebounds a night and the fact that he is true-shooting 61.8% (+3.8% over league-average) on a team devoid of other high-end talent, and it seems like an ironclad All-Star case.
Not so. The NBA announced the full list of All-Star reserves on Sunday afternoon; Porter Jr. did not make the cut. Nearly three weeks after NBA PR released full voting results for All-Star starters, it came as a bit of a surprise.
In that round of voting, MPJ was firmly inside the cut line among players, fans, and media. Reminder: for all the silliness of the All-Star game format this season, the selection process remains unchanged, and a dozen players from each conference are selected…
The coaches, however, are responsible for selecting the reserves, and they did not deem MPJ worthy of his first All-Star appearance. They did not heed the words of peer Jordi Fernández: “We’ve competed for a lot of games, and he’s a big reason why we’re there. He’s just doing his job, and it’s not about him; it’s about the group. So if you think about his impact on competitiveness, that’s what All-Stars do, and that’s why Mike should be there.”
So, was MPJ a snub? Well, we can’t say that without examining the rest of the field…
The Locks
- Donovan Mitchell
- Jalen Johnson
- Jalen Duren
- Scottie Barnes
Though 25 points a night ain’t what it used to be, it’s still a steep hill to climb. No 25 PPG scorer (over a full season) has missed the All-Star game since 2017, when Damian Lillard and Karl-Anthony Towns both fell victim to statflation. Of course, MPJ’s averages may fall in March and April, but his scoring output is typically All-Star worthy, even in today’s day and age.
That being said, Porter Jr. was firmly behind these four players in the All-Star race. Only Mitchell is out-scoring Porter, but the other three are simply too impactful on teams much better than the Nets (yes, even the Atlanta Hawks). Moving on.
The Questionables
Pascal Siakam
After a deep-dive, I almost put Pascal Siakam in the category above. The two have similar arguments despite being on 13-win teams, but Siakam is just a little easier to buy.
Brooklyn’s net rating is 11 points per 100 possessions better when MPJ is on the floor; that’s the eighth-highest mark in the NBA (min. 700 minutes). Pascal Siakam is one of the seven guys ahead of MPJ on that list, and crucially, he’s played nine more games (and 338 more minutes) than Brooklyn’s leading scorer. The Indiana Pacers are absolutely horrific — even worse than the Nets — without Siakam, but respectable with him.
If they had played the same amount of minutes, Siakam and MPJ would be neck-and-neck. Siakam is averaging a comparable 24/7/4, on similar usage, but with a 56.4 TS%. However, he has an edge on defense, and though I doubt the coaches went this far down the rabbit hole, Siakam has been considerably better in the clutch.
- Siakam: 8-14 record in clutch games, 52.1% true shooting.
- Porter Jr.: 4-15 record in clutch games, 45.2% true shooting.
The case for Porter Jr. rests on his production for a terrible team, hoping not to be punished for the lack of talent around him. Well, Siakam has been as good if not better, played more minutes, and if we’re really going to dive into their impact on winning, Siakam has been better in the clutch for a team that has a better clutch record.
Norman Powell
If Norman Powell and Michael Porter Jr. magically swapped places, the latter would have made the All-Star game. Is that right? Must the Miami Heat — 27-24, sitting atop the Play-In sect of the Eastern Conference — be rewarded with an All-Star?
Powell is having a great season, no doubt. He’s averaging about 24/4/3 on 61.2% true shooting as the unquestioned leader of a Heat offense that was hyped early in the season for their blinding pace and refusal to set ball-screens. Powell has been firing catch-and-shoot threes per usual, but he’s been getting his own too.
Here’s the thing. The Miami Heat have the NBA’s 17th-best offensive rating and the 6th-best defensive rating. Defense drives them. Yes, Powell has been not just great but vital to Miami’s offense, particularly with Tyler Herro playing just 11 games. However…
- Miami: 111.9 offensive rating without Powell, 117.4 with Powell (+5.5 swing).
- Brooklyn: 105.4 offensive rating without MPJ, 117.5 with MPJ (+12.1 swing).
The Heat have a tough time scoring (and a slightly easier time defending) without Powell, who leads them to decent offense. The Nets have an horrific offense without Porter Jr., who leads them to decent offense. Credit Jordi Fernández for his creativity if you want, but you can’t vote head coaches to the All-Star team.
Porter Jr. has scored more at a more efficient clip. He’s also created more offense for his teammates, whether you only look at assist numbers or also factor in how his gravity as a shooter opens up cuts for others. No doubt Norman Powell has had similar offensive impact for a much better team, but has he been better than MPJ (in 60 more total minutes)? Not quite.
Karl-Anthony Towns
If the All-Star game were about rewarding year-over-year improvements, Karl-Anthony Towns wouldn’t be making the trip to Los Angeles. He’s been substantially worse than last season, converting twos at a career-low rate and making threes at the lowest clip since his rookie season. Per Cleaning the Glass (which filters out garbage time), the Knicks have actually been slightly better with him on the bench. After a stellar inaugural campaign in NYC, this is a clear step back for KAT.
But he’s still a great player. He’s averaging 20-and-12, leading the league in rebounds per game. Because New York rebounds when he’s on the court, their defense survives; they don’t stop opponents on first chances. While he’s struggling to make shots, opponents still respect his 3-point shooting, a necessary ingredient to New York’s offense.
Has he been better than Michael Porter Jr., though? I don’t think so.
Now that he’s no longer operating with world-class efficiency, KAT has less margin for error on defense. Again, he’s not an outright negative on that end thanks to his rebounding, but because he does little else well at such a premium position, it’s tough to argue his defense has made him a better player than MPJ this season. Especially when…
- KAT: 23.33 points per 75 possessions on 59.4% true shooting (+1.4% relative to league-average), 1.15 assist-to-turnover, 25.8 usage%, +0.22 net swing.
- MPJ: 28.95 points per 75 possessions on 61.8% true shooting (+3.8% rTS), 1.30 assist-to-turnover, 30.6 usage%, +11.0 net swing.
Jalen Brunson is the head of the snake in New York. I don’t want to be so reductive as to say any #1 option is better than any #2 option (that’s First Take stuff) but in the case of Michael Porter Jr. vs. Karl-Anthony Towns, it’s clear the latter has been better on offense. Yes, KAT has played about 160 more minutes, but I don’t think minutes + defense are enough to close the gap.
And hey, Pascal Siakam is in the All-Star game. Team success only means so much this year. Advantage: MPJ.
What happened, what’s next?
Erik Slater and I talked about MPJ’s All-Star snub on the latest episode of Locked On Nets…
I would love to avoid homer-ism and call it an “exclusion” and not a “snub” but it’s not my fault the head coaches made the wrong call. If Siakam is in, MPJ should be in. Not because he’s been better than Siakam (he hasn’t, in my opinion), but because it removes the barrier of team success from the equation.
Did something change in the last three weeks, or did the coaches just have far different opinions than players/fans/media? The Nets have suffered some embarrassing blowouts recently, but was that enough to swing opinion? Have Siakam, KAT, and Powell — all in their thirties — just built up that much more goodwill around the league? Or is the Nets’ reputation/brand simply at the bottom of the totem pole?
Whatever the case may be, Porter Jr. still has a chance to be named an All-Star by the commissioner. With Giannis Antetokounmpo set to miss the weekend’s festivities with injury, Adam Silver must select one Eastern Conference reserve to replace him (and, knock on wood, anybody else who gets hurt over the next week or two).
But MPJ may be a victim of timing. Joel Embiid has played just 28 games, but he’s going God Mode right now. LaMelo Ball also has a strong case for a surging Charlotte Hornets team, and like Embiid, has much more name recognition than MPJ.
Michael Porter Jr.’s next chance to get through to Adam Silver will come on Tuesday evening, when the Brooklyn Nets take on the Los Angeles Lakers at home. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
