It was the type of start we’ve come to expect from Aaron Nola.
First inning, we see vintage Nola. Pinpoint command. Two strikeouts. A 1-2-3 opener. The type of beginning that makes you remember why the Phillies signed the veteran right-hander to a seven-year, $172 million contract before the start of the 2024 season.
Then, as if that dominant first inning never happened, it all fell apart.
The second inning starts with a line drive double, then a line drive single, then a ground ball double down the right
field line to score a run. Nola records two outs and then allows the hit that turns what could have been an inning with minimal damage into one with a crooked number, a line drive single that scores two.
The third inning would feature two more singles, although neither player scored. In the fourth? A leadoff triple that smacked off the center field wall followed by an out and then another line drive, RBI single to plate the Reds’ fourth run.
After a clean fifth, Nola was done. His final line read: 5 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB and 5 Ks.
This has been the norm. Through 10 starts, his ERA is 6.04. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) is 4.48. Neither number is good.
These are also not new numbers. In 17 starts last season, the EAR was 6.01. Among 144 starters with at least 100 innings pitched since the beginning of last year, Nola’s 6.02 ERA ranks 141st.
Aaron Nola has been one of baseball’s most ineffective pitchers since the start of the 2025 season.
He is scheduled to make $24.5 million each of the next five seasons, including this one. He is no longer expected to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, but there should be an expectation that he would not be one of the very worst pitchers in the sport.
There are any number of reasons why Nola is struggling, but it all starts with the fastball.
If Nola is not going to be able to throw his fastball, especially in fastball counts, he’s going to have to learn to feature his secondary pitches exclusively and use his fastball more sparingly. He’s already throwing it less (27.5) than he ever has. Manager Don Mattingly talked about Nola needing to learn to “pitch backwards,” but noted there is no one single flip that can be switched.
Catcher J.T. Realmuto feels Nola is simply not executing his pitches. The problem with Nola is that he absolutely cannot, under any circumstances, leave anything out over the middle of the plate. There is zero margin for error. And now, as noted by On Pattison’s Tim Kelly, it’s possible the new ABS system may be taking away Nola’s penchant for getting balls just off the plate called for strikes in the past.
It’s certainly an interesting thought.
Regardless, Nola is at a crossroads. There is simply no world where he can continue to pitch like this.
The hope is pitching coach Caleb Cotham and Nola can sit down in their pitching lab and cook up some ideas on how to fix Nola’s fastball. That’s easier said than done.
The more likely answer is that Nola may simply be cooked. And it would be understandable if he is, even as he approaches his 33rd birthday next month.
From 2017-2024, no pitcher in baseball threw more innings (1432.2) than Aaron Nola. That is an enormous workload, one that pitchers through the 1980s routinely piled up, but not so much in this era of baseball.
The problem is, there are five years left, counting 2026, on Nola’s free agent contract. So, what are the Phillies’ options?
While the Phils showed a willingness to eat some money by releasing Taijuan Walker last month, he was on the final year of his $18 million a year deal. Nola is due another $98 million after this season. That’s too much for any team to eat.
He cannot be traded. He has full 10-5 trade rights (10 years in the Majors and at least five years with his current team), and not only is it highly unlikely there would be another team willing to deal for him, it’s just as unlikely Nola would agree to a trade.
He cannot be optioned to the minors without his approval. Now, other veteran pitchers who were out of options have agreed to minor league demotions during times of struggle. In 2008, Brett Myers agreed to pitch in AAA for a few weeks to get things right. When he returned, he was a dominant force that helped the Phils win a World Series title. Would Nola be willing to do something similar if things don’t change?
The only other option is to send him to the bullpen. But without any logical replacements in AAA or AA as of yet, and the trade deadline still more than two months away, the only recourse the Phillies have is to send him out there every fifth day and hope he and Cotham can figure something out.
Nola’s stuff is good enough that he should be better than this. A pitcher of his talent, even with all those innings and a declining fastball, should be better than an ERA over 6.00.
Everyone will just have to grin and bear it for now. And hope Nola rights the ship.
Listen to more of my thoughts on Nola as well as the Phillies’ series loss to the Reds on the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, powered by WHYY!
