With the first pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, the Washington Wizards are almost certain to pick either AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson. They’re both impressive prospects who’d warrant being the top selection in nearly any draft. But 2026 is a rare year with four elite prospects who would normally be considered The Guy.
So far in this series, we’ve looked at Dybantsa, Peterson, and Boozer. Also check out the current Big Board, according to Ye Olde Draft Analyzer (YODA), my stat-based draft prospect evaluation
tool. Today, let’s look at why Caleb Wilson might be the perfect player for the Wizards at No. 1.
Wilson doesn’t warrant No. 1 overall status because of his offense. Although he was extremely efficient (128 offensive rating) on high usage (28.7%), he shot just 7-27 from three-point range — low volume and inaccurate. He shot just 71.3% from the free throw line. Not terrible, but not exactly a harbinger of future long-range success.
I’ll pause to make a limited observation. There’s another forward who shot poorly from deep in college (25.0%), was unimpressive from the free throw line (74.4%) and turned into a great NBA shooter (39.1% career percentage on threes; 86.3% career on free throws). That other forward is Kawhi Leonard.
Let me reemphasize the limited nature of the Leonard observation. I’m not comparing the players directly. I’m not saying Wilson will, can, or might be The Next Kawhi. The point is that things like NCAA shooting and the signals we look for in the numbers are not automatics. A guy shooting great in college usually means he’ll be at least good in the NBA. And players who shoot poorly in college usually aren’t good shooters in the NBA.
But not always.
Wilson, for example, is 19-years-old. Many players improve their shooting as they get older, stronger, and put in the work. In Wilson’s case, the biggest reason to think his shooting won’t improve is that it hasn’t. His lack of shooting ability has been a known flaw in his game before he got to North Carolina. It’s still an issue.
And that pre-NCAA experience might be where the Leonard example breaks down. The available evidence suggests Leonard was a competent distance shooter in high school and amateur ball, and that his San Diego State numbers might have been something of an aberration. Tough to say — it turns out, predicting the future of teenagers isn’t an exact science.
Anyway, the point of this digression is to say that shooting isn’t the reason to choose Wilson No. 1. It’s everything else.
With the exception of shooting, Wilson’s statistical production is up there with Boozer and anyone else in the draft. He checks the boxes for rebounding (at both ends), passing (3.4 assists per 40 with a 1.4 assists-to-turnovers ratio), steals (1.9 per 40) and blocks (1.8).
This season, he posted 15.7 rebounds + steals + blocks per 40 — ninth best in the draft behind only centers and Allen Graves. In other words, Wilson was an impactful and active defender who put in work on the boards to end defensive possessions and prolong offensive possessions for his team. That’s valuable.
Wilson is lanky and athletic (unlike Boozer, who’s slower and more ground-bound). He’s an effective, perhaps elite, defender, and he has potential to grow significantly on the offensive end. As noted previously, he was hyper-efficient on high usage despite not being a three-point threat or shooting a high percentage from the free throw line.
And there’s a signal in the numbers indicating he was an absolute handful for NCAA competition — 9.6 free throw attempts per 40 minutes. That’s a tick behind Dybantsa and George Washington’s Rafael Castro (9.7) for the top spot in this category in the 2026 draft. In other words, the free throw attempts indicate the opposition couldn’t compete with him without fouling. That’s not always predictive of NBA success, but it’s a good sign.
Now, the FanDuel odds are unchanged. Wilson is a long-shot to go No. 1. It’s still looking like Dybantsa or maybe Peterson. But any of the top four prospects could turn out to be the best player from this draft, and there’s a case that Wilson could be that guy.
