Assuming Riley Leonard is fully healthy, he has a big opportunity in front of him.
The Colts enter the final four games of the season without clarity at the most important position in football — not because
they lack options, but because none of those options are firmly settled. Daniel Jones’ future is murky. Anthony Richardson is under contract and still developing. And the draft and trade markets offer no easy answers. That uncertainty creates a rare evaluation window for Leonard, who now finds himself with the keys to a functional offense and a legitimate chance to change how the organization views its quarterback room heading into 2026.
The biggest contextual factor here is draft capital — or the lack of it. The Colts do not hold a first-round pick, and without premium draft positioning, they’re effectively priced out of the top rookie quarterback market. Even if a passer they liked somehow slid, the cost to move up would be prohibitive. Quarterback-needy teams don’t just pay first-rounders anymore; they pay multiple years of flexibility. For a roster with looming contract decisions and aging veterans, that’s not an attractive path.
That reality changes how teams think. When the top of the draft isn’t accessible, evaluation shifts inward. Development matters more than projection. Live NFL reps matter more than college numbers. Teams begin asking a different question: can someone already in the building become usable, reliable, or even competitive faster and cheaper than an outside solution?
That’s where Riley Leonard enters the equation.
The free-agent landscape doesn’t offer much relief either. Starter-quality quarterbacks rarely reach the open market unless there’s a reason. And if one does, the cost usually exceeds their functional value. Indianapolis doesn’t project as a team that can or should overspend at quarterback this offseason, especially without full clarity on how the current pieces might shake out.
Daniel Jones was supposed to provide that clarity — or at least stability. Instead, his Achilles injury introduces more uncertainty than reassurance. The injury itself is significant; Achilles tears remain one of the most difficult lower-body injuries for quarterbacks to return from in any meaningful way. Even when players come back on schedule, explosion, mechanics, and confidence aren’t guaranteed to follow. Mobility takes time, and confidence in movement sometimes never fully returns.
Jones’ contract status further complicates things. He’s a pending free agent. The Colts don’t know when he’ll be healthy enough to return. They don’t know how effective he’ll be once he does. And they certainly don’t know if committing long-term to a quarterback rehabbing a major injury makes sense without another option ready behind him.
That doesn’t eliminate Jones from the 2026 conversation — but it does put it on pause.
Anthony Richardson remains part of the plan, too, but his situation isn’t as clean as contract language suggests. Yes, he’s under contract. Yes, the upside is undeniable. But development hasn’t followed a straight line, and the organization knows better than anyone that talent alone doesn’t guarantee availability, consistency, or command of an offense. Richardson could absolutely be in the running for the starting job next season — especially if Jones isn’t ready on time — but the Colts can’t afford to treat that outcome as a certainty.
And that’s the theme tying all of this together: uncertainty.
When uncertainty exists at quarterback, teams don’t just search externally. They test internally.
That’s what makes Leonard’s four-game window so meaningful. He isn’t just stepping in to finish a season. He’s entering a structured evaluation period at a time when the franchise needs answers and has limitations on how to acquire them.
Leonard gets something few backup quarterbacks ever receive: continuity. He’s not being thrown into a broken offense or asked to survive chaos. He’s practicing with starters. He’s being given weeks, not days, to prepare. He’s operating behind an offensive line that has performed well this season and receivers who have all had great highs.
He’s also inheriting something else crucial: a good offense. The Colts’ system is functional when executed on schedule. It’s built on defined reads, spacing concepts, quarterback mobility, and situational efficiency. Leonard doesn’t need to transform it — he needs to run it. And his skill set matches more cleanly than people might think.
Leonard can move. That alone changes the geometry of the field. Designed quarterback runs, bootlegs, read options, and broken-play extensions all become part of the weekly plan. In a league that increasingly values quarterbacks who can stress defenses horizontally, Leonard’s running ability isn’t a gimmick — it’s offense.
But this isn’t just about legs. Leonard also gets to showcase his passing ability under real conditions, not relief duty. Timing throws. Third-down conversions. Red-zone decisions. Can he deliver the ball on schedule? Can he avoid negative plays? Can he protect possession while still pushing the ball when opportunities are there?
Those questions matter far more than raw yardage totals.
Another underrated element of this opportunity is preparation. Leonard didn’t parachute into this role. He’s spent most of the season watching a quality quarterback operate the system — seeing protections called, identifying coverages, managing tempo. That time matters. Backup quarterbacks often say the biggest growth leap comes from seeing game plans executed correctly for months before they’re asked to do it themselves.
Leonard now gets to test whether that absorption translates under pressure.
From the Colts’ perspective, this evaluation is efficient. Four real games provide more clarity than an entire offseason of speculation. If Leonard struggles, the team learns. If he functions, the team gains optionality. And if he surprises, the organization suddenly has leverage it didn’t think it would have.
This isn’t about crowning a starter today. It’s about expanding the decision tree tomorrow.
Leonard doesn’t need to be spectacular. He needs to be trustworthy. He needs to show composure, adaptability, and command. If he can do that, he forces his way into the conversation — not just as insurance, but as a legitimate plan in a quarterback landscape that suddenly feels thinner than expected.
Four games won’t determine everything. But they might determine whether Riley Leonard is still considered “depth” come spring — or whether the Colts view him as something more.
And in a league where quarterback questions dominate every offseason, being part of that conversation is often how careers truly begin.
