Who: Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
When: 7:00pm Arizona Time
Where: Mortgage Matchup Center — Phoenix, Arizona
Watch: Prime Video
Listen: KMVP 98.7
So the season comes down to this. One game against the Golden State Warriors for the right to stay alive. For the right to earn the eight seed. For the right to face the Oklahoma City Thunder, the defending champions, and the best team in the league.
At first glance, it feels favorable. The Warriors limped to a 37–45 record and haven’t been playing
their best basketball. But that surface read doesn’t hold for long. Because what they have can’t be measured in standings. They know who they are. They know how to win. The core of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Steve Kerr has lived in these moments. Four championships together are unquantifiable. You saw it against the Los Angeles Clippers. Down double digits, they didn’t blink. They dropped 43 points in the fourth quarter and took control. That’s not luck. That’s experience.
So the record gets tossed. The late-season struggles get tossed. Because they have the one thing that travels in games like this. They have Curry.
For the Suns, it’s a shot at redemption. A chance to still reach the postseason after dropping the 7–8 game. No seven seed has failed to advance in the Play-In era. Phoenix doesn’t want to be the first. Standing in the way is a team that has given them problems, even if it’s been a while since they last met. None of that matters now. One game. One result. Season on the line.
Probable Starters
Injury Report
Suns
- Grayson Allen — QUESTIONABLE (Left Hamstring Soreness)
- Mark Williams — QUESTIONABLE (Left Foot Soreness)
Warriors
- Jimmy Butler III — OUT (Right ACL)
- Moses Moody — OUT (Left Patellar Tendon)
- Kristaps Porzingis — QUESTIONABLE (Right Ankle Soreness)
- Quinten Post — OUT (Right Foot Injury Management)
Tale of the Tape
All of the statistics listed below are post-All-Star break.
What to Watch For
It starts at the point of attack for the Phoenix Suns. That’s been the issue for two months now.
If you can’t contain the ball up top, everything behind it gets stressed. It puts pressure on guys like Mark Williams and Oso Ighodaro to protect the rim, and when they do, the defense collapses. That leads to kick-outs and open threes. Against the Golden State Warriors, that’s dangerous. They may sit 25th in three-point percentage since the All-Star break, but they’re 11th in makes. Volume matters. Give them space and they’ll make you pay. So while collapsing the defense has its place, it comes with risk.
On the other end, the Suns need to find the three-point line early. This is where their advantage lies. 18th in the NBA in three-point percentage since the break, Phoenix is 4th in makes at 15.0 per game. Golden State isn’t as long or as disruptive on the perimeter as the Portland Trail Blazers. That was Portland’s blueprint: keep Phoenix off the arc. It worked. The Suns didn’t hit their first three until midway through the second quarter.
That can’t happen again.
You want an early rhythm. Knock down a couple. Get the crowd engaged. Settle the building before the tension creeps in. Because it will. This is an elimination game. If the Suns fall behind, even briefly, that anxious energy will show up.
Key to a Suns Win
Control your emotions. You’re facing the Golden State Warriors, a group built on experience. They’ve lived in elimination games and understand the moment. They’re the more mature team.
The Suns are different. Phoenix is younger and more emotional. They’re in their emo phase, and my assumption is Fall Out Boy posters are all over their room. The team feeds off that energy, but it can swing on them fast. It needs to be controlled. Add Draymond Green into the mix, poking and prodding, and you can feel how this could tilt early. Don’t be surprised if a couple of technicals show up as officials try to keep it in check.
Devin Booker needs to show real leadership, especially the emotional kind. In a game like this, that means being the emotional beacon: the player who gives his teammates space to feel the moment while keeping his own emotions firmly under control.
We felt it on Tuesday, the way these games come in waves. There are runs and momentum shifts. The team that stays composed usually comes out on top. If the Suns are going to win, it starts there. Stay composed. Stay disciplined. Use emotion as a tool to impose your will.
Prediction
It hasn’t been a great track record against the Golden State Warriors this season, but I have confidence that this Phoenix Suns group has more depth. They can sustain scoring, keep pressure on throughout, and that matters against a team that isn’t elite defensively.
Because of that, I lean Suns. They find enough offense, they hold steady, and they get it done. Phoenix wins and moves on to the postseason. We have one amazing day of discourse before the reality of a matchup against OKC sinks in.
Suns 109, Warriors 101
