The San Francisco 49ers have caught a lot of flack this week after the 2026 NFL Draft, where they made a few selections that deviated from the consensus board, leading many to believe that they reached on several draft picks.
Following the draft, general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan affirmed their belief in the draft class, pointing out that they have their own consensus board inside the building, brushing away concerns from the national consensus board.
That has created an interesting
dialogue on teams deviating from the consensus board, especially considering how successful the 49ers have been over the past few years. So, let’s make sense of the argument and see whether it’s been an issue or not.
First, zooming out, let’s go over the last few drafts for the 49ers, which were seen as up-and-down post-Draft Day, starting with the 2020 NFL Draft.
Here, the 49ers made a surprise, filling their defensive tackle need with DeForest Buckner’s departure with Javon Kinlaw, who was seen as a quality prospect with major injury concerns. Kinlaw never panned out for the 49ers, failing to earn a second contract with the team.
San Francisco did have some good picks in that draft, though, hitting on Brandon Aiyuk, whom they traded up for in the 2021 NFL Draft. They also hit on Colton McKivitz in the fifth round and Jauan Jennings in the seventh round, while Charlie Woerner was a solid sixth-round pick. Not a bad draft at all.
In that class, they really didn’t deviate from consensus much at all. Kinlaw was considered a top-20 prospect. Aiyuk was considered in the range he was selected. And the Day 3 picks were solid hits.
In the 2021 class, the big miss, of course, was quarterback Trey Lance. But this draft included quite a few “reaches” on the consensus board. Aaron Banks was considered a late third-round pick by the consensus boards, but the 49ers traded back and took him at No. 48.
Trey Sermon was considered a reach, with the 49ers trading up for him at No. 88. Same with Ambry Thomas at No. 102, with both being seen as fourth-round talents. San Francisco’s rest of the class were Day 3 picks, with some nice hits in there: Jaylon Moore, Deommodore Lenoir, Elijah Mitchell, and Talanoa Hufanga.
Here, Banks ended up earning a major second contract, but has been an average to below-average guard. Thomas and Sermon both didn’t pan out, while San Francisco had quite the impressive hit rate with their Day 3 picks.
Now, in the 2022 NFL Draft, the 49ers didn’t have a first-round pick, so their draft started with Drake Jackson in the second round. He actually was seen as quite on the consensus charts, with many grading that pick highly after the draft. But the 49ers had a huge reach at No. 93 with running back Tyrion Davis-Price, who was generally seen as a fifth or sixth-round prospect on the consensus board. There was a slight reach with Danny Gray, considered a late fourth-round prospect, at No. 105.
Additionally, Spencer Burford and Samuel Womack were drafted quite ahead of consensus, albeit on Day 3. Injuries killed Jackson’s career in San Francisco, while Davis-Price and Gray did not pan out in San Francisco.
In 2023, the 49ers had one of the biggest reaches ever with the selection of kicker Jake Moody in the third round, becoming the first team since 2016 to take the position that highly. Moody was considered a late Day 3 prospect. Additionally, they took tight end Cameron Latu in the third round, who was also considered a sixth-round prospect on the consensus boards.
Those two picks were killer for the 49ers, as neither made it to the end of their rookie contracts.
The 2024 NFL Draft was pretty well-regarded for the 49ers, with the lone exception being Ricky Pearsall being slightly overdrafted as a first-round pick. Pearsall was seen as a consensus late second-round pick. Apart from that, San Francisco was pretty in touch with the consensus boards with their draft.
In 2025, there were a few inconsistencies. The 49ers took linebacker Nick Martin quite high at No. 75, as he was considered to be a Day 3 prospect. The same goes with wideout Jordan Watkins, who wasn’t on the Top 300 of the consensus board, but was taken at No. 138 overall. We’ll see eventually how those picks pan out.
But, over the past few years, we’ve seen San Francisco deviate quite a bit from the consensus. And when they have, we really haven’t seen much success, with Aaron Banks being the lone exception.
Instead, they’ve reached (and missed) on players like Trey Sermon, Ambry Thomas, Tyrion Davis-Price, Danny Gray, Jake Moody, and Cameron Latu, who were all taken in the top three rounds of the draft. That’s quite the group of players.
That’s why the discourse around San Francisco’s draft class is what it is right now. The consensus board has proven to be wrong before, as seen with some of the 49ers’ picks that missed over the last few years. But it generally has a good track record when it comes to value, and we’ve seen the results when San Francisco deviates from it.
Now, looking back at the 2026 NFL Draft, I think the discourse around the De’Zhaun Stribling pick is overemphasized right now. That’s not the problem. As I wrote on draft night, Stribling projects out as a quality NFL player, and I see that selection similar to the way I saw Ricky Pearsall’s in 2024. I like the player, and I like the fit. The 49ers did need a wide receiver for the future. Stribling is big, fast, very athletic, and works well after the catch, which we’ve seen be a good fit in San Francisco’s offense. He also blocks well.
At No. 33, though, it was probably a bit early, just like Pearsall was back in 2024 at No. 31 overall. Now, that doesn’t take away from Stribling being a good player. Assuming he can stay healthy, he should produce and challenge for that 1,000-yard mark on his rookie contract. The question comes after that: Will he be able to get a second contract with the 49ers?
A big part of the Stribling pick is his age. He’ll be 24 this year, which means he’ll be 28 going into Year 5, which would be the first year of his second contract. That’s quite old, especially for a wide receiver, just like it was with Pearsall, who was also 24 in his rookie year.
Still, it seems like the NFL was higher on the wideout, even if it was a bit of a reach at No. 33. The talk about the 49ers’ draft shouldn’t be as much on Stribling as the remainder of the class, primarily with Kaelon Black at No. 90.
At No. 70, Romello Height was taken just slightly over where the consensus had him, which was a late third-round pick. But Black had an average ADP on the consensus board of 200. He was considered a Day 3 pick, and the 49ers not only took him at No. 90, but they also made him the No. 3 running back in the class, with no other team taking a back since the Seattle Seahawks took Jadarian Price at No. 32.
In addition, no other running back went until No. 108, when the Denver Broncos took Jonah Coleman, and only one other running back went in the fourth round: Mike Washington Jr. to the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 122. It just feels like the 49ers read the board wrong here and reached.
Now, if this were a one-time occasion, you’d trust the 49ers and their drafting strategy. But they’ve consistently struggled with these picks, especially at running back in the middle rounds, when they’ve deviated from consensus this deeply.
Later in the draft, San Francisco took Carver Willis, Jaden Dugger, and Enrique Cruz Jr. earlier than what the consensus boards had them on Day 3, but in a weaker draft without much depth, that isn’t as major an issue.
Overall, though, the 49ers have shown a pattern of missing on draft picks when they do go away from consensus. And they have struggled with the draft in some of the last few years, which is why it’s very reasonable to question their pedigree when it comes to the consensus board.
Is the consensus an absolute certainty? No. But we’ve seen teams miss when they generally deviate from that board, which is where the discourse comes in.
