It is almost never easy to see the end coming. Matthew Stafford’s upcoming retirement decisions is one of the most significant unknowns surrounding the Los Angeles Rams and the outlook on the NFL.
When the Rams say that Stafford has earned the right to end his career on his own terms, they are really saying that he can continue to be our quarterback for as long as he is performing at an elite level.
When Aaron Donald said he was “full” and hung up his cleats, the timing was a shock to most. Donald probably
had years of high-level performance left in the tank and fans have since questioned whether this call came prematurely.
Stafford could follow Donald’s example; however, that could lead to the Rams turning over the keys to Ty Simpson before he’s ready to fill those shoes and Stafford spending the rest of his life wondering if he could have pushed through another year or two.
On the other end of the equation is the possibility of Stafford overstaying his welcome.
Nearly all quarterbacks who aren’t named Tom Brady age poorly. You may believe that Stafford is exempt from this decline; however, even Peyton Manning was sidelined in favor of Brock Osweiler. The Colts traded for Matt Ryan only to realize his best days were behind him. The Falcons, after Ryan, turned to Kirk Cousins only to find themselves in the same position.
LA’s selection of Simpson was wise, although there is probably some truth in their hoping he doesn’t see the field for a while. Jimmy Garoppolo and Jacoby Brissett were drafted to take over for Brady in a transition that never came. Would the Rams be OK with the Simpson pick if Stafford continued to perform at an MVP level through the rookie’s five-year contract? Probably. Those are not fair expectations to have.
The difficult truth is that the longer Stafford continues to play the less likely he is to end his career on his own terms. With each added year, the needle moves from Donald’s timeline and in the direction of Manning, Ryan, and Cousins.
Ultimately, at least where we sit today, the retirement decision is 100% Stafford’s to make. Over time that becomes less true.
Simpson is already drawing praise from teammates. The Rams will have a front-row seat in monitoring his development. Simpson is a young and ascending player. Stafford is aging and declining. Simpson may never reach the highs of Stafford’s career. At some point in their individual trajectories, the Rams may feel compelled to play the youngster over the veteran.
Although it feels improbable today, that shift could come during the 2026 season. The odds grow more likely that the day comes in 2027 and even more so in 2028.
Stafford deserves to play for as long as he wants. He brought a championship to Los Angeles after the same team fell short a few years before. Stafford must also be mindful that Father Time is undefeated and
