Home sweet home. After going .500 on their six-game road trip, the O’s return to Baltimore, where their most recent homestand resulted in a 7-3 record and some of their most inspired baseball of the season. This time it’s going to be a tougher task, with all seven games coming against winning teams, starting with the AL West-leading Mariners.
The M’s have been red hot of late. They were four games under .500 as recently as May 24, but then they rattled off an eight-game winning streak to take control
of their underwhelming division. They were the preseason favorites to win the West and, after a sluggish start, they’re now on track to do so.
The Mariners always seem to have a quality pitching staff, and this season is no exception. Seattle’s 3.50 team ERA is second only to the Yankees among American League teams. That includes their usual stable of quality starters as we’ll discuss below, but their bullpen has been particularly effective with a 3.15 mark that leads the AL. That’s even despite a rocky performance from All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz, who has given up 15 runs in 23.1 innings and has blown five of his 14 save opportunities. The latest one came just yesterday, when Muñoz coughed up two runs in a walkoff loss in Detroit.
But the crew setting up Muñoz has been stellar. Right-hander Matt Brash has allowed only one earned run in 16 innings. Offseason acquisition Jose A. Ferrer — the A is for Awesome, I guess — has a 1.55 mark in 32 games, teaming with Gabe Speier (2.16) to form a potent lefty duo. And former O’s washout Eduard Bazardo, who made three terrible appearances with the Birds in 2023, is now one of Seattle’s most reliable relievers. Go figure.
On offense, the Mariners have been steady but unspectacular. They were surely expecting more from Cal Raleigh, last year’s 60-homer-hitting AL MVP runner-up. Raleigh has a miserable .560 OPS this season and is currently on the injured list with a right oblique strain. The M’s also haven’t gotten much from first baseman Josh Naylor (.682 OPS), whom they re-signed to a five-year, $92.5 million extension this past offseason.
But the Mariners’ outfield has picked up the slack. Luke Raley and Julio Rodríguez lead the team with 13 homers apiece, and Randy Arozarena leads all M’s position players with a 2.6 WAR. Designated hitter Dominic Canzone (144 OPS+) and shortstop J.P. Crawford (10 homers) have also been big contributors offensively. The Mariners also called up top prospect Colt Emerson to play third base, and he’s performed well so far. The Mariners’ lineup skews very left-handed, with all of their regulars except Rodríguez and Arozarena swinging from the left side. That could be a problem for the Orioles, who have three right-handed pitchers starting in this series.
Game 1: Monday, 6:35 PM, MASN
RHP Emerson Hancock (4-2, 2.80) vs. TBD
The Mariners’ rotation features five above-average, homegrown hurlers under the age of 30. Not gonna lie, I’m a little jealous. They’ll start the series with Hancock, who’s been the best of them all so far. The 27-year-old, who’d had only middling results in three seasons since debuting in 2023, has put it all together in 2026. In addition to his impressive ERA, he’s carrying a sub-1.00 WHIP and is striking out a batter per inning. Hancock faced the Orioles once last season, holding them to one run in 5.2 innings, with an Adley Rutschman dinger his only blemish.
As of this writing, the Orioles still don’t have a starter listed for the opening game. It’s Chris Bassitt’s turn, but he left his last outing early with lower back tightness and his status for tonight is unclear. If Bassitt can’t go, the O’s presumably will call up Trey Gibson, who last started June 3 for Triple-A Norfolk and would be on regular rest.
Game 2: Tuesday, 6:35 PM, MASN
RHP Logan Gilbert (4-4, 3.79) vs. LHP Trevor Rogers (3-6, 6.29)
At 29, Gilbert is the graybeard of the Mariners’ rotation (not counting veteran Luis Castillo, who’s been moved to long relief). The 2024 All-Star is continuing to limit walks and rack up strikeouts, though he’s among the lowest percentile of pitchers for hard-hit %, barrel %, and average exit velocity, so batters have been squaring him up a decent amount. The O’s offense will need to be aggressive and attack pitches in the zone. The only Orioles who have faced Gilbert frequently are his former AL West opponents Taylor Ward and Leody Taveras. Ward is 6-for-22 with a homer against him, while Taveras is just 2-for-17, but both hits are home runs.
Meanwhile, Rogers might be creeping his way back to being a solid pitcher, if not his dynamite 2025 self. In each of his last two starts, he’s begun the game with 5+ scoreless innings, only to hit the wall and lose effectiveness around the 70-pitch mark. It’s progress, for sure. This is a good matchup for Rogers, as the lefty-heavy Mariners are batting just .209/.290/.336 against southpaws this year.
Game 3: Wednesday, 6:35 PM, MASN
RHP George Kirby (5-5, 4.04) vs. RHP Brandon Young (4-1, 3.47)
Could Brandon Young be the first successful Mike Elias-signed and developed Orioles pitcher? It’s shaping up that way. The 27-year-old has rattled off three straight quality starts and now has the best ERA of any Orioles starter. Young has been a huge boost to an O’s rotation that’s been wracked by injuries, and his spot seems more than secure right now. This will be his first career start against Seattle.
Kirby, a former first round pick, began his career with three strong seasons from 2022-24 before slipping a bit last year. This season he hasn’t quite returned to form, with a career-worst K/9 of 7.4 and the highest WHIP and H/9 rate of his career. Still, that could just be small-sample-size noise. For whatever reason, he’s seen the Orioles a lot; his eight career starts against them are his most against any non-division opponent, though he’s just 2-5 with a 3.26 ERA. Ward, the former Angel, has tagged Kirby for three career homers.
Game 4: Thursday, 7:05, ESPN
RHP Bryan Woo (5-4, 3.74) vs. RHP Kyle Bradish (3-7, 3.89)
Bradish seemed to have reclaimed his ace status after a stellar May, but he got roughed up by the Blue Jays in his first start of June. Hopefully it was just a one-off. Overall he’s pitching with the same kind of stuff and swagger that he displayed in his great 2023 season, looking fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in 2024. Bradish will need to be careful with Arozarena, who has homered twice against him in his career.
Woo, 26, is the youngest Mariners starter and the one coming off the best 2025 season, when he was an All-Star and finished fifth in the AL Cy Young vote after posting a 2.94 ERA in 30 starts. Woo worked six or more innings in his first 25 starts of that year, which seems like a herculean task in this day and age of baseball. He hasn’t quite matched that durability this year, already with three starts in which he failed to last six innings. Woo has had four outings of six or more shutout innings, but also four outings in which he allowed four or more runs, including his most recent start in Detroit. This might be a good time to give Taylor Ward a day off; he’s 0-for-13 with five strikeouts lifetime against Woo.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series, Camden Chatters? Let us know in the comments.
