Illinois Offense by the Numbers
Pass Attempts / Game: 26.2
Receiving Yards / Game: 242.6
Rush Attempts / Game: 34.2
Rushing Yards / Game: 133.4
Turnovers / Game: .6
Illinois Roster
Key Players – Offense
Quarterback: Luke Altmyer – 6’2”, 215 – Sr.
Passing: 127/150 Attempts – 70% Comp% – 1187 Yards – 11 Touchdowns – 0 Interceptions
Rushing: 16 Attempts – 101 Yards – 2 Touchdowns
PFF Grades
: Off – 75.1 – Pass 72.7 – Run 65.8
Running Back: Kaden Feagin – 6’3”, 255 – Jr.
Rushing: 69 Attempts – 300 Yards – 3 Touchdowns
Receiving: 4 Receptions – 80 Yards – 1 Touchdown
PFF Grades: Off: 79 – Run: 81.74
Receiver: – Slot – Hank Beatty – 5’11, 185 – Sr.
Receiving: 32 Targets – 27 Receptions – 383 Yards – 1 Touchdown
PFF Grades:
Off 87 – Rec 82.9 – Drop 79.1
Offensive Line: Left Tackle – J.C. Davis – 6’5” – 335 – Sr.
Stats: 306 Snaps – 0 QB Hit Allowed – 0 QB Hurries – 0 QB Pressures – 0 Penalty
PFF Grades: Off 88.1 – Run Block 89.1 – Pass Block – 72.5
Key Points for the Purdue Defense
Luke Altmyer wants to work the middle of the field. Get your hands up and watch for crossing routes.
Altmyer targets the short middle of the field (0-10 Yards, between the tackles). He has completed 32/38 attempts for 312 yards and two touchdowns. Not surprisingly, that happens to be where freshly minted star receiver Hank Beaty likes to do his work. Beaty has been targeted 15 times and has 13 receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown in the short middle.
He’s only had one pass batted down this season, and that’s part of the reason why they’ve been so successful over the middle of the field. Purdue has a couple of tall defensive tackles in Harkless and Dinkins; it’s possible they could disrupt the Illinois passing game without necessarily getting pressure on the quarterback. Hank Beaty is a chore to handle on crossing and option routes. One way to cut down on that is to get hands in the middle passing lanes to either dissuade Altmyer from throwing the ball or they can go all the way and swat it down. It’s going to take a team effort to contain the Altmyer / Beatty connection.
That team effort also includes the linebackers and safeties, making the middle of the field inhospitable for Beaty. He’s not a big guy, think former Boilermaker Charlie Jones, and he makes his living in a tough part of the field. I’m in no way advocating Purdue go head-hunting, but a few well-timed shoulders to the midsection from either of the linebackers or safeties might make their bread-and-butter throws a little riskier.
Purdue has to find a way to get Illinois off the field, and that means finding a way to disrupt the uber-efficient Altmyer.
Find a Way to get to the Quarterback and mix up the secondary play enough to keep Altmyer guessing.
Altmyer is one of the best quarterbacks in the Big 10, but like most quarterbacks, he’s not nearly as good when put under pressure.
Per PFF
Kept Clean: 71/95 (74.7%) – 981 Yards – 11 Touchdowns
Under Pressure: 18/32 (56.3%) – 206 yards – 0 Touchdowns
Not Blitzed: 51/74 (68.9) – 664 Yards – 9 Touchdowns
Blitzed: 38/53 (71.7) – 523 Yards – 2 Touchdowns
As you can see, the problem is getting pressure on him without having to blitz all the time. The worst thing you can do against a quarterback like Altmyer is send a blitz that fizzles out, allowing him to pick apart the secondary. The goodish news is that you can dictate some of the throws he makes with the blitz. If he sees something coming, he’s going to his hot route immediately. He’s not the type of quarterback that tries to stand in and deliver down the field against the blitz, and Illinois isn’t a team that throws deep much anyway.
When you send the blitz, the defensive backs can be aggressive and step up. Of course, that does leave the defense susceptible to a double move. He doesn’t have the biggest arm, but if Altmyer catches Purdue squatting on the short/intermediate routes, they’ll go to a double move and try to get an easy six over the top. Purdue has to balance coming up and making plays on short routes while not tipping their hand and allowing the deep strike over the middle, as the safety looks to come up and stick a crossing route.
I expect Purdue to mix coverages and maybe run some buzz action in the deep middle with one safety stepping up while the other safety retreats to the deep middle. You’ve got to think Altmyer will eventually throw a pick, and giving him some different looks in the secondary could induce him into trying to fit a ball in that doesn’t belong.
If he does allow Purdue an opportunity to pick off a pass, the Boilermakers have to make the play. They’ll be lucky to get one chance; I doubt they’ll get two.
Buckle Your Ching Strap, Kaden Feagin Is a Beast
Feagin isn’t Derrick Henry, but in terms of size, he’s as close as you’re going to get in college football at 6’3”, 255. He’s forced eight missed tackles this season, and while I haven’t seen all of them, I’ve seen enough to know those misses are probably dudes he ran over in the hole.
The good news is that while he’s Derrick Henry-sized, he lacks the elite speed of Derrick Henry. He has five runs of 10+ this season, which is second on the team to reserve tailback Ca’Lil Valentine, and a long of 26.
Purdue’s offense can go a long way in helping neutralize Feagin. If your offense can threaten Illinois by putting points on the board, they’ll turn the game over to Altmyer. That’s what Purdue needs to do. They can’t win a ground war with Illinois. The Illini are better on both the offensive and defensive lines, but Purdue might be able to draw them into an aerial battle with a fast start. The Boilermakers probably lose an aerial battle as well, but it gives the defense a chance to make a play instead of getting steamrolled by Feagin and Valentine for four quarters. If that happens, I don’t think the front seven can hold up, and things might get ugly in the second half.
Purdue has to start fast on offense and throw everything they have at stopping the run early. I don’t see a way forward for Purdue if they try to stand toe-to-toe with Illinois, they’ve got to find a way to draw them into a different game than Illinois wants to play.
Overall
Out of USC, Notre Dame, and Illinois, Purdue has a better shot at beating the Fighting Illini because there is a possibility that the Boilermakers can outscore them.
It would be awesome if Purdue could find a way to pull this one out, but don’t get frustrated if they give a solid effort but fall short. Illinois is a top 25 team for a reason, and it’s tough to beat a veteran quarterback like Altmyer on the road.
There are some winnable games for the Boilermakers a little further down the schedule. This one is going to be tough.
