The San Francisco 49ers will travel to Atlanta to face the Falcons and try to keep their unbeaten streak alive. Monday night’s victory over Washington was hard-fought, especially after Mike Evans left the game with an Achilles injury. Still, the 49ers held off the Commanders’ comeback attempt and moved to 6-0. The question becomes which receivers will be available for Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy, and how the game plan must change without Evans on Sunday.
Now, Evans isn’t ruled out, but as of now,
it seems wise to hold him out until after the bye week. As easy as that sounds, it still leaves the 49ers with potentially Brandin Cooks, Jordan Watkins, Jacob Cowing, and potentially Christian Kirk, in some capacity. Yeah, I didn’t like typing that as much as you didn’t like reading it.
Did Washington leave some breadcrumbs for Atlanta defensively on Monday night after Evans departed?
I believe the Commanders did tip Atlanta’s hand a bit as to their potential strategy in the second half of Monday night’s game. Coming into the game, the Commanders were second in the NFL in blitz rate. The first half saw modest blitz numbers as Brock Purdy and Mike Evans marched up and down the field. Once Evans left, the Commanders spammed blitz after blitz in the second half, raising the first-half percentage from the 20s to the 70s.
Washington wanted to speed up Purdy, and without separators or receivers that he trusts, the offense stalled. To be fair, I don’t blame Purdy at all for the second half. When you have receivers running into each other and not getting proper spacing and timing (I’m looking at you, Cooks and Watkins), Purdy can’t hit anticipatory throws to receivers he doesn’t trust.
So, what will Atlanta do with Jeff Ulbrich as the defensive coordinator? In years past, especially last year, Atlanta has been at the top of the league in blitz rate. This year has seen the blitz rate go in the opposite direction. The Falcons are 25th in the NFL with a blitz rate of 25.9%. You can expect a total increase, as the Falcons sit in cover 3 38.3% of the time, and allowing Purdy time in the pocket allows him to pick apart zone coverages.
You can expect an increase in the one coverage concept that is man coverage in Cover 1 (21.1%). Until the 49ers prove they have receivers available that secondaries should worry about, the blitzing will continue. If the receiver group can prove they can separate and be on proper timing, it will put the Falcons on their heels and the scales tip towards the 49ers.
The chess match between Ulbrich and Shanahan will be fascinating. Shanahan will have to craft a game plan around running the football, screens, and quick throws until opportunities present themselves to attack downfield.
The good news is this is a one-week issue, as after the bye, the 49ers can expect Evans, Demarcus Robinson, and Deebo Samuel to return to action. Sunday’s game presents an interesting challenge for Shanahan, and this is a game where his game plan and scheme should do the heavy lifting.
