Heading into the international break, we sit in 14th place, one point above the drop zone, with a grand total of four points, so should we be worried? It seems a section of the fan base is, and that leaves me baffled.
I suggest there is one reason alone we are in this precarious (not!) position. We lost at Ipswich on the first day of the season – that’s it, that’s all.
To explain, rather than get up or down about a single result, I tend to look at form over five-game chunks. Going into the season,
I thought seven points, perhaps eight, was achievable across our first five games. Wins against Ipswich and Fulham, a point at Brentford and, best case, a draw at home to Arsenal or away at Manchester City.
The loss at Ipswich blew that calculation out of the water. The best we could then hope for was four points, maybe five, and so it transpired. To make up for the loss at Ipswich against Arsenal or Man City was a big ask, but we gave them both a real scare.
I haven’t seen anything so far to give me the slightest concern, so where does the negativity come from? Could it be a lack of form, a leaky defence or a lack of goals?
It’s true Robin Roefs hasn’t hit the heights of last season, and Omar Alderete has not looked back to his best after the injury he had towards the end of last season. If you want to be hyper-critical, you might suggest Reinildo is starting to show his age, but I can’t think of anybody else whose performances have fallen away.
What about a lack of goals? That was a problem last season and into this, and is related in part to the way we play. We could have scored six against AZ Alkmaar, and we scored three on Sunday, so there is reason to be positive.
We are starting to reap the rewards of persisting with Nilson Angulo, and Malick Fofana should get better with more game time. Hopefully, Brian Brobbey’s hat-trick on Sunday should give him more confidence in front of goal, and we have Big Angulo as backup once he beds in.
At the other end of the pitch, we shipped five goals against Man City, but if the referee and VAR team had any concept of the handball rule, two of those would have been cancelled out. AZ Alkmaar had at least three really good chances, but chances don’t count, and before that we had looked solid – apart from (back to them again) at Ipswich.
Again, if you wanted to be negative, you might say we could get a significant set of injuries, as we have lots of games coming up and limited depth. Yes, it might happen, but the Earth might get hit by an asteroid, or Donald could press the nuclear button; it’s not something I am going to worry about.
If we get five points or less from the next five games, then it might be time for concern, but I am going to stick my neck out and speculate we will accumulate eight points or more from Brighton, Leeds and Chelsea at home and Bournemouth and Coventry away. If so, then after a busy October we should be mid-table and, for me, that’s fine.
I’m going to take a positive view and suggest that by November we could be well on our way to qualifying for the next stage of the Europa League and in the last eight of the Carabao Cup. I, for one, take that as reason to be cheerful.
