It’s been an ugly start to the season for the Minnesota Vikings’ offense, at least from a total yards perspective, but most major efficiency metrics as well. The season began with high hopes for a more productive offense led by a proven veteran in Kyler Murray, who’s ranged between an average to near top ten quarterback since he entered the league by most major metrics; and a more dynamic running game designed by new assistant head coach and de facto run game coordinator Frank Smith.
But the results
so far have been disappointing across the board. Here are some metrics and the Vikings ranking:
- Total Yards (32nd)
- Passing Attempts (32nd)
- Passing Yards (32nd)
- Net Yards per Passing Attempt (31st)
- Yards per Rushing Attempt (27th)
- First Downs (32nd)
- Average Plays per Drive (32nd)
- Average Yards per Drive (32nd)
- 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (31st)
- Team Passer Rating (23rd)
- Offensive DVOA (30th)
- Passing DVOA (31st)
- Rushing DVOA (19th)
- Red Zone TD Percentage (4th)
It’s that last statistic that has helped the Vikings to a middle-of-the-pack 16th ranking in points scored, although that is helped by special teams and defensive takeaways as well. The Vikings offense has only two turnovers as well after three games, which ranks 5th best. But overall the metrics confirm what has been apparent to most observers, including the Vikings coaching staff: the Vikings’ offense is anemic.
So why such a poor start to the season? Let’s examine in more detail.
Passing Game
The season had hardly started when Kyler Murray got knocked out of the game with a concussion, which caused him to miss the second game of the season as well. That led to Carson Wentz taking over for the first two games and playing at a competent, reliable, replacement-level of production that we expect from a healthy Carson Wentz at this stage of his career. He averaged 22 pass attempts per game over his two games as the Vikings pursued a run-heavy approach. He also averaged just 130 net passing yards per game, which is about 90 yards or 40% below average across the league so far this season, and his own average last season. His passer rating and ANY/A are higher this year, however, as he’s taken fewer sack yards with no interceptions and a higher rate of TD passes from a year ago. But overall, it seems that part of the game plan with Wentz as the starter was to run more and take more off of Wentz’s plate and hope that the running game, defense, and special teams would be enough to prevail.
But once Murray returned last weekend, net passing yards didn’t improve much, going from the 130 Wentz averaged to just 152 against Tampa Bay. There was always likely to be an acclimation period over the first part of the season for the newcomer Murray as he gets used to the new scheme and players around him in a real game setting, but his essentially missing the first two games with a concussion has delayed that as the Bucs game was essentially his first. And even then after the first drive Justin Jefferson exited the game with an ankle injury, which doubtless upended the game plan- at least the passing game plan- as Kevin O’Connell likes to run the passing game through Jefferson. Murray had a few explosive completions to Jordan Addison in Jefferson’s absence, but he also looked tentative in the pocket.
But there were misfires as well. He was a bit off on a couple throws to Addison and one to Hockenson and was out of sync with Hockenson as well on a seam route in which Hockenson held up a bit expecting the pass but Murray threw it expecting Hockenson to continue down the field, resulting in an overthrow. There were also a couple instances where if Murray was just a split second faster in his processing/decision-making, he might have been able to hit on a few other pass attempts as well. These are all issues that are likely to improve with more reps, time on task, and by building more rapport with receivers- and the offensive line. Murray’s average time to throw against the Bucs was 3.34” according to PFF- a little over a half second longer than his 2.80” career average. That suggests a little bit of tentativeness in his first full game in nearly a year, in a new system and with new receivers.
Overall, Murray’s adjusted completion percentage (accuracy) was just 66.7% – below his career average of 75.8% meaning he was off on about 3 more passes than usual. It wouldn’t be unusual if that was due to being rusty after not playing for a year and/or not being quite in sync with his new receivers yet.
It’s probably underappreciated how losing Jefferson early on, but after a week of game planning and practicing with him expected to play the whole game, creates problems in the passing game plan given that it runs through Jefferson by design. The coaching staff is forced to improvise with plays not practiced during the week and/or different receivers running the routes. Having a new quarterback limits the catalog. Kevin O’Connell said in his Wednesday press conference that he could have done more to adapt to Jefferson’s absence and they will be more prepared on Sunday in the event Jefferson doesn’t play on Sunday.
But it’s also fair to say that Jauan Jennings has been a disappointing non-factor in the passing game over the first three games (he missed one of them) and T.J. Hockenson has lost a lot as a route runner. He functions mostly as a stop route runner and checkdown although he had a couple decent receptions on screen passes. Tai Felton also didn’t make much of the extended reps he had with Jefferson out most of the Bucs game. Overall, beyond Jefferson and Addison, the Vikings need a reliable third receiver with some juice. Getting Jennings going on underneath routes seems like the easiest solution- which presumably was why he was signed along with his blocking ability. It would also be nice if a back emerged as a weapon in the passing game.
Running Game
After a certain amount of buzz about their revamped running game during the off season and training camp- the Vikings running game looks… not much different. It certainly hasn’t been more productive, averaging almost a full yard less per carry than last season.
I’m not seeing much, if any, of the more innovative features of the Dolphins running game under Frank Smith and Mike McDaniel, and not that much more push/attention to detail from the offensive line that was an emphasis this offseason for new offensive line coach Keith Carter. That view may reflect more of the recent performance against the Bucs, which have a very stout defensive front and head coach Todd Bowles has always been focused on stopping the run, but I really haven’t noticed all that much change. Hopefully that will be coming soon.
Of course like the passing game, some of the disappointment in the running game comes from injuries. In this case, to Jordan Mason. He was the more effective back for the Vikings last season and looked to be even more so this season as he slimmed down a bit and looked a bit more dynamic. But he went on IR after the Packers game and has been missed. God bless Aaron Jones for holding up as the bell cow against the Bears and doing the best he could against the Bucs stout front as well, but he’s not going to last long averaging 20 carries a game like he has the last two. But neither DeeJay Dallas nor Demond Claiborne has shown much as a rusher to earn more reps at this point. And with Jordan Mason out until after the bye-week, the Vikings just added Devin Neal to the running back room- but he averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last year with the Saints. From his scouting reports, Neal is a good fit as a zone-scheme back with good ball security and receiving ability. Not terrible as a pass protector either. He’s just 23 and in his second year in the league. Watching his tape from last season, he’s a back that’ll get what’s blocked for him, but isn’t able to create much on his own. The Vikings also added Audric Estime, a second-year back out of Notre Dame who also was with the Saints last year. He’s more of a power back. He won’t outrun anybody but if he makes it through the first wave with a head of steam he’s tough to bring down.
Realistically, the Vikings will probably continue to cobble together their running game by committee until the bye-week with as many carries as they dare giving Aaron Jones, supplemented by reps by whichever of the others proves the most worthy. It would be nice if Demond Claiborne showed some of his college dynamism, but so far he’s missed more holes than tackles in the few touches he’s had. It doesn’t help that Josh Oliver, the Vikings’ best blocking tight end, went on IR today either.
Offensive Line
Overall, the offensive line has held up fairly well. Yes, there have been quarterback pressures, but there have been quarterbacks holding the ball too long as well- both Murray and Wentz. There is room for improvement in the running game too, to be sure, but it’s nice having a healthy Christian Darrisaw back, and I like what I’ve seen from Donovan Jackson so far this year too. Blake Brandel isn’t as bad as some thought- average I’d say- while Will Fries has been up and down but has improved each game so far. Brian O’Neill has been solid.
The offensive line ranks 6th so far in PFF’s OL Pass Blocking Efficiency metric at 88.6. The offensive line is credited with allowing just 3 sacks so far according to PFF.
The team ranks 29th, however, in run blocking grade (which includes all run blockers, not just OL). Improvement needed there- especially after it appeared to be a focus during the offseason.
Coaching
Kevin O’Connell and company have been forced to pivot from what they hoped to do schematically with some key injuries impacting their game planning. Kyler Murray, Jordan Mason, and Justin Jefferson among them. Losing Josh Oliver won’t have as big an impact but may be noticeable going forward. We’ll see how they adapt.
O’Connell has adapted so far by seemingly taking a ‘first do no harm’ approach focused on not turning the ball over and a run-heavy approach when Carson Wentz was under center and being able to lean heavily on the defense while the offense heals and figures things out.
O’Connell also has the burden, as he has just about every year he’s been head coach, of acclimating a new quarterback into the offense. Such is the case again this season. That can be limiting in several ways. First, you start every season from scratch with the new quarterback needing to gain familiarity/comfort/experience in the scheme and rapport with the players around him, particularly receivers. There also isn’t a catalog of plays to draw upon from previous seasons that have been practiced and used in previous games as needed to respond to a given situation. That ties a coach’s hands when it comes to playcalling. You can only call what you’ve installed and practiced, otherwise mistakes and ‘not being on the same page’ are bound to happen. They happen sometimes on plays that have been installed and practiced.
Rapport between quarterback and receiver is key to success as well. Getting the timing and rhythm of routes down takes time and reps. Practice helps, but it’s not the same as a real game against another team. It’s not something that is accomplished in five weeks of training camp. At this point, it looks like Kyler Murray has a little rapport with Justin Jefferson, less with Jordan Addison, and not much at all with anyone else.
There is also a rapport between quarterback and offensive line in pass protection. After playing a while together, quarterback and lineman get to know each other’s playing style and tendencies in given situations, which helps in establishing the pocket and for a quarterback to maneuver in the pocket as well. But that too takes time.
Having said all that, Sam Darnold had a great start in 2024 with no big problems in terms of timing/rapport with receivers that I noticed. Kyler Murray, by contrast, looked more rusty and tentative in his first full start compared to Sam Darnold in 2024. He held the ball a bit longer than Darnold and wasn’t as accurate. There were some plays where Murray and his receiver weren’t quite in sync as well.
Both Murray and Darnold are similar I think in wanting to push the ball downfield in the passing game whenever the opportunity presents itself. But Darnold also seemed a bit more aggressive and confident in doing so than Murray in his first start with the Vikings. I wonder if part of that reflects a difference in coaching from Kevin O’Connell.
In a press conference recently, O’Connell talked about maturing as a coach and play caller, less worried about stats and more concerned about winning. In that context, he mentioned winning the turnover battle as a key objective in winning. In the Kevin O’Connell era, the Vikings have won about 90% of the games in which they tied or won the turnover battle, making that the most correlated stat to winning for KOC’s Vikings.
And that change may be reflected a bit in Darnold 2024 vs. Murray 2026. It wouldn’t be surprising if O’Connell still preached playing on time and pushing the ball down field in the passing game, but also taking care of the ball more with Murray than he might have done with Darnold in 2024.
At that point in time O’Connell may have been more accepting of the occasional interception as the price for hunting explosive plays he deemed important to scoring points and winning games.
But watching Seattle win a Super Bowl last season with a strong defense and Darnold at quarterback, O’Connell may have noticed that in some key games- including the Super Bowl- Seattle head coach Mike MacDonald dialed back Darnold and the passing game and kind of ran his way out of trouble offensively, avoiding sacks and turnovers when the passing game wasn’t working well, while also leaning on the defense. It wouldn’t be surprising if KOC and new GM Nolan Teasley compared notes on their roads to winning a Super Bowl and what worked and what didn’t work.
One thing is for sure, if O’Connell’s emphasis has gone from stats to wins, that is reflected in his offense at present. But at the same time, he knows and has expressed publicly that the offense needs to improve. That starts with Kyler Murray getting more acclimated to the scheme and building more rapport with the players around him. Getting more from the running game is also important. Seeing more of what Frank Smith was working on this offseason would be helpful- along with getting healthy at running back.
But the future is now.
The Vikings next four opponents rank 32nd, 23rd, 28th, and 26th in pass defense DVOA and 32nd, 30th, 29th, and 28th in overall defensive DVOA so far this season. If the offense can’t get right over this stretch, it could be a long season offensively for the Vikings.
Stay tuned.
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