Week 4 means conference play has arrived for the Virginia Cavaliers. Sitting at 2-1, the ’Hoos welcome a 1-2 Stanford team to Scott Stadium on Saturday night, with the Cavaliers sitting as 17-point favorites. We take a look at which team ESPN’s analytics favor this weekend and in the remaining eight contests on UVA’s schedule.
Home vs. Stanford
FPI chance to win: UVA 78%, Stanford 22%
A second straight week where UVA can take care of business early on, and do so by multiple scores if all goes well. Vegas has the ‘Hoos
as a three-possession favorite with the returns of Mekhi Buchanan, Antonio Clary, and Kam Robinson only adding to UVA’s cause in its ACC opener against a Stanford offense that ranks in the bottom third of the country in points per game and is the third worst among all Power Four schools. A potential confidence booster for all three of the guys returning from injury and the entire UVA defense may be in order, and would be huge heading into one of the biggest games of the season a less than a week later.
Home vs. Florida State
FPI chance to win: FSU 61%, UVA 39%
Friday, September 26th was always going to be a highly anticipated game once it was announced, but now it sets up to be a true test as to whether or not this Cavalier team can live up to its goals to compete in the league. Florida State will have plenty of prep time leading in as they host Kent State this weekend. Still, the trap-game sirens should be firing around the country leading up to Mike Norvell’s team heading to Charlottesville, with Miami set to travel to Tallahassee the week after.
The elements are there for Tony Elliott’s first statement-win inside Scott Stadium, given UVA takes care of business against Stanford. Between it being the 20th anniversary of the 1995 game where the Cavaliers stood tall on the goal line, the ‘Hoos rocking what will more than likely be a rendition of those retro blue uniforms, and the Seminoles potentially looking ahead.
Away vs. Louisville
FPI chance to win: Louisville 63%, UVA 37%
Before the season started, UVA’s trip to Louisville figured to be the toughest test of the season, and despite Florida State’s momentum-building win against then 14th-ranked Alabama, the analytics still believe that to be true.
Louisville’s offense has been slower than expected to start the year, though. While the Cardinals put up 51 points in the opener, quarterback Miller Moss threw only one touchdown to go with two interceptions. Against JMU, the Cardinals’ offensive front was bullied for most of the game, struggling to move the ball before ultimately getting bailed out with a defensive touchdown and a 78-yard Isaac Brown TD to pull away in the fourth quarter.
From a top 10 win at UNC in 2023, to last year’s upset at Pitt, there always seems to be a game the ‘Hoos unexpectedly steal away from home that makes zero sense from a timing and opponent standpoint. Perhaps this is that road game in 2025.
Home vs. Washington State
FPI chance to win: UVA 94%, WSU 6%
The ‘Hoos figured to be favorite’s to pick up a win here throughout the offseason, but through three games, the Cougars look much worse than advertised.
Week 1 saw a gritty Idaho Vandals team hang around to lose by just three in Pullman, while North Texas obliterated Wazzu a week ago by 49 points. In a night game where the weather should be making a turn to the cooler side, this is a game UVA should win and do so handily.
Away vs. North Carolina
FPI chance to win: UVA 69%, UNC 31%
Formulas and numbers don’t take consideration into the weirdness of rivalry games, but it’s still surprising to see the analytics so high on the ‘Hoos for a game in Chapel Hill. Carolina has since weathered its laugher of a loss to TCU with two wins over Charlotte and Richmond, but quarterback play remains a question with Gio Lopez off to a slow start.
UVA should have the quarterback edge by a vast margin, with Lopez’s current QBR of 20.5 ranking as one of the worst in the country, while Chandler Morris sits at 5th in the conference and 43rd nationally with a rating of 72, with all signs pointing to continued quality play.
Things always seem to get wacky in the South’s Oldest Rivalry, from both teams forgetting to play anything resembling defense to inexplicable upsets like in 2023. Come to think of it, perhaps a Tony Elliott coaching masterclass against the great Bill Belichick would just make sense for this game. What a storyline that would be.
Away vs. California
FPI chance to win: Cal 58%, UVA 42%
While the trip to Carolina looks better with time, UVA’s matchup with Cal is headed in the opposite direction, with the Golden Bears looking better than expected through three games. Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is off to a sensational start in his freshman year, totaling 780 passing yards to go with six touchdowns, including three against Minnesota in the team’s latest win.
UVA’s trip to Berkeley is the program’s lone trip across the country this season, and between a long flight, a three-hour time change, and this game firmly in the middle of the conference slate, the potential for a letdown is there if the ‘Hoos aren’t fully locked in when the time comes.
Home vs. Wake Forest
FPI chance to win: UVA 87%, Wake Forest 13%
Wake Forest is down in Year one of the Jake Dickert era. The ‘Hoos pulled off a miraculous comeback in Winston-Salem a year ago, but I would be shocked if that’s what it takes with this game back in Charlottesville amid the home stretch of the season, and the FPI agrees.
Away vs. Duke
FPI chance to win: UVA 52%, Duke 48%
Given that this game is set for mid-November, the ‘Hoos won’t be subjected to a chaotic home-field advantage by any stretch with hoops season in full swing by then. On the field, Duke has looked shaky so far after getting blown out at home against a talented Illinois team and falling by a touchdown in the ‘Darian Mensah Bowl’ at Tulane a week ago. Whatever momentum the Blue Devils picked up after last season is nowhere to be found at the moment, making this game more feasible for the ‘Hoos as it stands early in the season.
Home vs. Virginia Tech
FPI chance to win: UVA 74%, VT 26%
I had the same thought you probably have now after seeing this — 74% certainly feels like a lot.
UVA has the edge under center and a more competent roster overall, but again, numbers don’t take into consideration the outside stuff like one program’s systemic mentality (or lack thereof) going into an annual rivalry clash. The voodoo surrounding this game eliminates any conventional logic from a UVA perspective. It has to be proven on the field at this point, and a team full of transfer portal additions might be the recipe to help do just that, combined with the second bye week conveniently being the week before this game. A scheduling quirk that’s notable given Tony Elliott’s undefeated record in games coming out of the bye week as UVA’s head coach.
While the Hokies look to be in shambles from the athletic department down with the recent firing of Brent Pry and have looked uninterested on the field throughout the past six quarters of play, you can best believe whoever gets off Tech’s bus at Scott Stadium in late November will be up and excited to play a game the program doesn’t believe it can lose at this point, no matter who the acting head coach is.
