Shifting expectations are difficult. For years, I dreaded when the Chicago Bears would face the Green Bay Packers.
Even in the years when Chicago was good, it still felt like an uphill climb to beat the team up north.
In the down years, of which there have been far too many, I was resigned to yet another humiliation at the hands of the green and gold, their smug quarterback and their young darling of a head coach.
But the tide is turning. The shift started with the drafting of Caleb Williams but really
hit last season with Ben Johnson.
Johnson wasn’t afraid to come in and talk a little trash. He wasn’t afraid to embrace the rivalry, the recent one-sidedness of it and look at all that in the eye and say, ‘bring it.’
Now, Green Bay is off to a rough start. They’ve struggled just to be at .500.
There are still years of pain deep in my gut, telling me not to be confident. Not to fall into a trap. As if perhaps Green Bay has purposely laid a 2-2 subpar start to the season just to set the Bears up, only to once again knock us down and laugh.
But then I see the state of the rosters, the weaknesses, the strengths, the stats.
I’ve said I won’t believe the tide has shifted in the series until the Bears can sweep the season series against the Packers. That can’t happen Sunday, but they can win their third straight, which is awfully close.
I know Green Bay is going to give everything they can to beat Chicago Sunday. And they absolutely can do it. The NFL is truly an any-given-game-day league. But with Ben Johnson on our sideline, I like our odds and I’ll take my chances with him anytime we can get it.
Green Bay Packers
SB Nation site: Acme Packing Company
Record: 2-2, third in the NFC North
Last week: 17-14 win over the Buccaneers
Game day, time, TV: Noon CT Sunday on FOX
Spread: Bears -2.5
Bears all-time record against: 98-109-6, including 2-1 in the postseason
Historical meetings: Week 5 of 2007. The 1-3 Bears traveled to Lambeau to face the 4-0 Packers.
Green Bay scored first with DeShawn Wynn rushing for a two-yard touchdown.
The Bears started by going three-and-out on their first three possessions. The Bears got the ball on two consecutive drives by Charles Tillman using his patented Peanut Punch on receiver James Jones.
Finally, though, following a Green Bay three-and-out, the Bears put together a 12-play drive. The Bears committed an illegal formation on a Roobie Gould field goal attempt, giving the Bears fresh downs.
Cedric Benson scored a 10-yard rushing TD two plays later.The Packers answered right back with a 41-yard Favre-to-Greg Jennings strike.
Following some field goals, Brian Urlacher picked off Favre and Griese threw a 19-yard touchdown to Greg Olsen on the very next play.
In the fourth quarter, it was more of the same until Griese put together one more drive and hit Desmond Clark for a 34-yard score to break the 20-20 tie.
The Bears picked off Favre’s heave toward the endzone with 8 seconds left and won 27-20.
Last meeting: In week 16, the Bears were down 16-6 with less than 2:15 to play.
The Bears kicked a field goal, recovered an onside kick, scored a touchdown and went to overtime.
They stopped the Packers on fourth down and scored a walk-off touchdown to DJ Moore.
ROLL THE TAPE:
Oh, wait, that was the last regular-season meeting. I’m so sorry.
In the Wild Card round, the Bears trailed 21-3 at halftime. After two field goals cut it to 21-9, the Bears scored with D’Andre Swift to make it 21-16.
But on the next drive, the Packers hit Matthew Golden for a 23-yard touchdown.
But Caleb Williams hit Olamide Zaccheaus for an 8-yard score; the defense got the Bears the ball back and Williams hit D.J. Moore for a 25-yard touchdown pass to win, 31-27.
ROLL THE TAPE!
Injury report: The Packers list nine players as limited on their Wednesday report.
Limited participation
- T Anthony Belton (knee)
- DT Anthony Campbell (ankle)
- EDGE Lukas Van Ness (shoulder)
- WR Savion Williams (ankle)
- DT Devonte Wyatt (ankle)
Did not participate
- G Aaron Banks (knee/toe)
- RB Chris Brooks (ankle)
- C/G Jager Burton (back)
- C/G Jacob Monk (quadricep)
Offense: The Packers come into the game ranked 28th in points and 20th in yards.
Their passing offense ranks 11th and their rushing offense ranks 32nd.
Jordan Love’s (56.5 pct. cmp./1,041 yds./8 TD/3 INT) numbers don’t match what they typically are, but it doesn’t seem like it’s all on him.
Leading weapons are Christian Watson (20 rec./331 yds/4 TD), last year’s first-round pick Matthew Golden (18/274/2) and TE Tucker Kraft (15/148/1), who is back from his injury. Jonnu Smith (5/85/0), Skyy Moore (6/35/0) and Jayden Reed (4/24/0) also make some plays.
The ground game is led by MarShawn Lloyd (30 att./81 yds/0 TD) and Kaleb Johnson (20/80/0). Johnson was acquired in a late-summer trade from Pittsburgh. Chris Brooks (15/70/0) also gets some totes. Lloyd (9 rec./49 yds.) gets the most passing targets.
Defense: The Packers defense ranks 23rd in points and 14th in yards.
Their passing defense ranks fourth and their rushing defense ranks 28th.
Down both Micah Parsons and Ederrin Cooper, Lukas Van Ness (2.5 sk/6 TFL/3 QB hits) is the main pass-rushing threat now. He’s been good this year, but can he be a one-man show?
Leading tacklers are S Evan Williams (34 tkl/2 TFL/1 INT/4 PD), Zaire Franklin (30 tkls/1 TFL/1 QB hits) and Keisean Nixon (25 tkls/3 PD/1 INT/2 TFL).
In the secondary, Xavier McKinney (1 INT/1 PD/1 sk/17 tkl) and Javon Bullard (23 tkls/2 PD/3 TFL) are making plays.
Key match-ups: Look at the run defense numbers for Green Bay. Ben Johnson is going to want to attack them on the ground in every which way. And Green Bay will likely sell out to try and stop it, to make Tyson Bagent beat them.
If Bagent can keep the floaters to a minimum and keep the ball out of harm’s way, there will be play-action opportunities. Otherwise, a steady dose of D’Andre Swift (secure the ball!) and Kyle Monangai, as well as sweeps with Luther Burden or getting Roschon Johnson involved again. Whatever Ben feels like dialing up.
On defense, the secondary is going to have to keep Watson and Golden contained. Getting pressure on Jordan Love with four would be ideal, but let’s be realistic. Dennis Allen will have to pick and choose when to blitz to not let Watson have deep opportunities. The interior of Green Bay’s line is bad, though, so getting pressure will hopefully be a little easier.
Key stats
- The Packers have zero rushing touchdowns this season. The Bears have the second-most in the league with nine.
- Green Bay has the highest three-and-out rate in the league at 45.5 percent.
- Their third-down offense ranks last in the league, converting just 26.1 percent of the time. Their third-down defense isn’t much better; it ranks 29th, allowing 48.2 percent of their third downs to be converted.
- The Packers also have the worst-ranked red zone defense. Opponents are scoring 85.7 percent of the time inside the 20.
- Green Bay has six offensive turnovers this season already. They had 13 in the entire 2025 season.
- The Bears rank first in time of possession and average drive length in time. The Packers’ average drive length in time ranks 32nd
Am I crazy for still sowing a bit of paranoia about the team up north? How are you feeling heading into Sunday’s game?
