The Buffalo Buffalo begin the second half of their season this afternoon with a huge showdown against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium. It’s a major test for the Bills, and a chance to show outsiders that their struggles in 2025 are too harshly criticized.
In a pair of early season losses, the Bills looked nothing like the team many have predicted will contend for the Super Bowl at season’s end. Instead, they were a group besieged by injury, and seemingly devoid of talent in too many other
places injury left untouched.
For his part, quarterback Josh Allen didn’t play like the reigning NFL MVP, and it’s fair to say he hasn’t except for and since the fourth quarter of Week 1. No matter what the stats tell you, Allen is struggling in ways we haven’t seen since his rookie season.
In the past, Allen has been able to mask a lot of roster deficiencies. That wasn’t the case against the Atlanta Falcons and their top-ranked defense, nor was it true the week before in a loss to the New England Patriots. Allen responded well in Week 8, when Buffalo won 40-9 and defeated the surprising Carolina Panthers. In total, Allen was responsible for three touchdowns (1 passing, 2 rushing).
That said, the truth is that Josh Allen hasn’t played MVP-caliber football often enough in 2025. He’s in a slump, the likes of which the Bills need him to snap out if they’re to chase postseason dreams.
It may seem absurd to suggest such things when Allen’s season looks a lot like past campaigns through seven games. During September, Allen was mostly dialed-in, playing true to his franchise quarterback form and claiming another AFC Offensive Player of the Week award to start the season. But there were signs of struggle on offense.
Then October came and Allen hit a real rut. Allen’s stats over the last three games aren’t all that pretty, but the Bills have also played some challenging defenses. Excuses aside, Allen has thrown five touchdowns and three interceptions in the last three games.
Unfortunately, Buffalo’s roster isn’t built to handle Allen’s off days against top teams. It’s as fatal a flaw as one exists in the NFL. It means that Josh Allen probably has to play perfect or at least near-perfect football for the Bills to win against the best competition.
Next up for Buffalo is the Kansas City Chiefs, who come to town for a massive Week 9 game just as November gets underway. One Bills Drive needs Josh to play like the reigning NFL MVP he is.
Much has been made of Allen’s career during the months of September and October. There are enough folks who believe that he plays really well the first month of every season, only to regress a bit once October hits. Is this really true, or does he bear too much weight for the team’s W-L record? Is Allen set to rocket back up the charts now that November is here?
We’ve seen before the sort of slump Allen appears to be dealing with now. Guess what? He always rebounds better than before. Still, with Allen’s game off quite a bit in recent weeks, it’s a good time to look at his career numbers during the months of September and October. It’s a 57-game sample size, so there’s plenty of data to consume.
As we dive deep here, remember that Allen was injured and missed half the games in October during his rookie year (2018). As I mentioned, there’s a lot of data to sift through. So… grab your favorite reading spot as we dig in to find out if there’s anything to back up the idea that Allen’s in a slump this season.
Ready for a healthy dose of charts and graphs?
Josh Allen’s career stats: September and October (2018-2025)
Josh Allen’s passing stats (September 2018-2025)
Josh Allen’s rushing stats (September 2018-2025)
Josh Allen’s W-L record (September 2018-2025)
Josh Allen’s passing stats (October 2018-2025)
Josh Allen’s rushing stats (October 2018-2025)
Josh Allen’s W-L record (October 2018-2025)
Making sense of Josh Allen’s September/October stats
Admittedly, that’s a lot of data to consume. I’d spent considerable time debating whether or not to share it with readers given the amount of information it demands someone process. This article began as a discussion with the team here at Buffalo Rumblings — one where we wanted to find out if it was true that Allen really did regress in October. I took the ball and ran to the numbers.
First thing’s first from above: The idea that Allen is markedly worse in October is false. His completion rate is historically lower in October (September: 66% / October: 62.9%), but his passing yards are up (September 6,934 / October: 7,170), as are his TDs (September: 50 / October: 56); his INTs are identical, and he’s taken less sacks (September: 65 / October: 42). If we’re assigning a W-L record to Allen, his number are pretty similar historically when comparing the first two months (September: 20-8 / October 19-10).
But it’s also true that Allen’s playing worse in 2025, and significantly so during the month of October. What gives?
Statistics are interesting. I rarely believe stats tell the full story, instead seeing them more as vehicles for interesting conversation that can be manipulated to favor any argument. They can’t paint a complete picture of any athlete. Stats do provide a near-complete overview of one’s on-field work, but they lie simply because they ignore nuance and can’t pass an eye test.
If you’ve made it this far, it’s likely that you’ve decided a few things based on the above data. So now, let’s digest it in one fell swoop, working through the combined September/October data across all seasons.
Looking over Allen’s career passing numbers during September and October to this point (and dismissing his awful rookie season), it’s clear that his rise to stardom has a heck of a lot more to do with effort and work than luck. His numbers are fairly steady, but there’s the slightest dip since 2024.
What changed? Stefon Diggs left town, and Joe Brady took over as the full-time offensive coordinator. The latter development has helped Allen dramatically reduce his interceptions. He’s also throwing less in 2025, with 197 completions his lowest total since that rookie season.
This season, Allen has also completed the second-best percentage (68%) of passes in his career for the months of September and October, and his air yardage is down. You might chalk that up to a lot less downfield tosses, but there’s also an uptick in sacks and lost yardage. As I mentioned above, Allen’s playing worse in 2025 despite a bunch of favorable stats.
Here’s where stats and the eye test enter a cage match. Those completions? Watching film of Allen’s throws shows more than a handful of off-target passes. Where in prior recent seasons Allen was hitting pass catcher in the numbers (chest) or well within their hands’ reach, many are now high-point catches. His misses include another healthy handful of dirt dust-ups.
Against the Falcons, Allen struggled getting the ball out quickly. He left pockets early and for whatever reason the communication downfield with receivers was terrible, essentially… nonexistent. To go back and count the number of missed throws by Allen would prove frustrating. So, while it’s true that very few pass catchers have been getting open consistently for Allen, that’s not the sole reason for his struggles.
Has Allen made incredible plays in each game this season, the type that few humans are capable of on a consistent basis? That’s true, without a doubt. Yet, he played poorly in Atlanta — which as a defense brought the house early and often against him to great success. Allen has shown to rattle when hit from the pocket, and the Falcons put him on his backside and worse several times. Consider his 45-yard bomb to wide receiver Joshua Palmer, who had actually beaten man coverage. Had Allen thrown a better pass, Palmer walks in for six. Sure, they scored soon after that play, but the point remains.
Whether it’s due to Allen not seeing open receivers, some failure to work through his progressions before bailing the pocket, a shift in offensive philosophy, or quality of the offensive line’s play — or something else; perhaps all of that and more… it’s impossible to know for sure what might be the root cause(s).
From afar, it almost appears as though we’re watching an earlier version of Josh Allen. Okay, his interceptions are down, but here’s the kicker. Where before Allen might have had a higher number of picks, they rarely led directly or indirectly to points the other way. They also very seldom cost the team games, and never happened in the red zone. Looking back again at those two losses, we find that Allen tossed an ugly pair of red zone interceptions, the latest one in Atlanta serving as a true nail in the coffin.
Something in Allen’s game is off right now. He’s in a slump, but he doesn’t need to be “fixed.” Allen just needs to rebound with some help along the way.
The Bills & Joe Brady need to help Josh Allen rebound
Elsewhere, I’ve written about running back James Cook, and his lack of involvement in the passing attack. It’s tough at this point to say that’s due mostly to offensive coordinator Joe Brady or Allen, but easy to assign blame in both directions. Cook brings real potential as a receiver, and I can imagine few better ways to help a slumping quarterback than by way of a dynamic running back playing the role of outlet receiver.
It’s understandable why Allen might appear off, why he’s been visibly frustrated with himself. Allen can’t fix everything, especially when things are breaking that never needed to be changed. We last saw similar results when Ken Dorsey was the offensive coordinator. Dorsey, to his credit, had Allen dialed-in using a lot of play-action formations. Allen reportedly didn’t enjoy the play-action stuff, and he seemed progressively off as the weeks went by. Then came the team’s bye week and head coach Sean McDermott showed Dorey to his vehicle.
That’s when Brady took over on an interim basis, and had Allen hand the football to Cook more than before. Since taking over as the fulltime OC, Brady’s proven capable. He built a highly effective offensive attack in 2024 that set plenty of scoring records. It may be time for Brady to stop outsmarting his own play calling, however. To Brady’s credit, he did just that against the Panthers after the disaster in Atlanta. Head coach Sean McDermott might have had something to do with it, in addition to some self-reflection during the bye. Recalling what McDermott said in his postgame presser in Atlanta, where he said “we can be better,” I sensed he was ready for something different on offense, adding:
“You have to evaluate everything to make sure we’re looking in the right spots in terms of the coverages we’re getting and the quarterback’s progression. Overall… I could feel what you’re saying in terms of ‘it was too hard’ — too hard tonight on our quarterback and it doesn’t need to be that hard all the time, where he’s having to run out of the pocket.”
Bills Mafia has long believed that with Josh Allen, no game is ever out of hand; that if Allen has the ball last on offense, it’s reasonable to expect a win. That hasn’t been true in a pair of losses this season. Why does the offense seem to sputter in 2025 during moments where in prior seasons Allen and company thrived?
As discussed earlier, red zone interceptions aren’t helpful. Neither is a defense that, until Week 8, struggles to stop running backs. Coming out of the bye, Buffalo responded well, especially on defense. Interestingly, Allen again took a bit of a back seat to Cook, similarly to their win against the New York Jets. When and where he was heavily involved, Allen made the Panthers pay at the goal line.
It’s clear that Allen would benefit from blue-chip help at wide receiver. Keon Coleman is getting a lot of flack for his work in recent weeks, and it’s clear he’s struggled with drops and winning contested catches. He’s also been an afterthought too often, whether due to offensive coordinator Joe Brady or how Allen’s working through progressions.
Coleman is Buffalo’s top receiver in terms of snap percentage, yet he seems ill-suited as a featured receiver at this point in time. We saw how after being soft-benched early against New England, Coleman came in partway through the first quarter only to fumble deep in their own territory. That can’t be the first play for him after being disciplined, and it’s fair to imagine Allen lost a bit of confidence in Coleman in that moment.
It almost seems as though Coleman thrives on consistent involvement, the same as so many professional athletes. There are countless tales of alpha receivers being taken out of games mentally simply due to a lack of targets. Coleman very well might thrive with some simple tweaks.
Why isn’t Coleman put in motion pre-snap, and why does it often take so long to get him involved in games? Perhaps because there’s little creativity involved with Coleman’s role. The Falcons and Patriots neutralized Coleman with their best cornerback, then did similar things to Khalil Shakir with a combination of coverages.
As for those who continue worrying about Coleman’s ability to separate, here’s a chart many will find interesting:
To expect that Coleman becomes the team’s next Stefon Diggs is asking a lot. Diggs is a household name for a number of reasons.
With Stefon Diggs, everyone can agree on two things: He was an incredible player with Allen, where each saw their career shine; he was also trouble in the locker room. He constantly drew coverage away from others, and he’d also still make plenty of huge catches and game-changing plays when covered. Buffalo has none of that at wide receiver now; no receiver appears capable of consistently beating man coverage.
Yes, Allen’s not playing like the league’s best quarterback right now, but too much of his supporting cast isn’t doing enough to help. Want to fix a lot of Allen’s struggles in 2025? Get him an elite wide receiver and don’t keep James Cook on the sideline. Additionally, Brady needs to make better calls, and best-position Allen to succeed. Allen also needs to trust and take what’s in front of him. It may be too late this season to fix all the roster holes, especially when considering the team’s salary cap situation, but doing nothing will only serve to send this team home far sooner than anyone expects.
Recent rumors have the Jacksonville Jaguars listening to trade offers for wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr, who’s in his second season. It’s likely to take a first pick and then some to land Thomas, and he’s worth that investment by the Bills. Though any wide receiver who comes in midseason may not light the world on fire statistically this season, Buffalo would be that much further ahead for 2026 and beyond with a player under contract for at least two more seasons.
This isn’t the end of an era for the Bills, their fans, or Josh Allen. It’s simply another wake-up call. Allen is just 29 years old, and still a fire-breathing unicorn of a quarterback. For those worrying about Super Bowl windows, they never close for the great ones. It remains wide open for Josh Allen, who is undoubtedly already one of the NFL’s all-time greats.
He just needs a little bit of help right now.
