Your Miami Hurricanes face off against the Ole Miss Rebels in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl tomorrow evening. The CFP Semifinal is the biggest game Miami’s played since….last week’s Cotton Bowl Classic Quarterfinal against Ohio State. in over 20 years, and the stakes are sky high.
Miami enters the game as 3.5pt underdogs according to our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook, but that doesn’t mean the game is over before it starts. This is a tough opponent with 2 CFP wins to their credit already, but so is Miami,
and each team has the talent to win.
Here are the keys to victory for the Hurricanes in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl:
Win the line of scrimmage
This is the exact same first key as the Cotton Bowl, but it’s the foundation of everything Miami does. Mario Cristobal’s core team building philosophy is “big dudes close to the ball”. With an offensive line that averages 6’6” 330lbs, and a defensive line that goes 8 deep with size, strength, speed, and elite talent, this year’s Canes embody that archetype perfectly.
Winning the line of scrimmage on offense looks like a good run game, a time of possession advantage, plenty of time for Carson Beck to throw, and mitigation or elimination of the Ole Miss’s defensive line’s ability to make plays. We’ve seen that many times from Miami’s OL, including both CFP games against Texas A&M and Ohio State, so that needs to happen again.
Winning the line of scrimmage on defense looks like stopping/containing Ole Miss’s run game (something like fewer than 100 yards rushing and 3 or fewer yards per carry), getting pressure on QB Trinidad Chambliss with rushing only 4 linemen, and containing Ole Miss’s offensive explosiveness to keep them out of up tempo mode as much as possible. Getting quick pressure and not having to blitz will allow Miami to allocate resources in pass coverage and QB run/scramble defense, something that will be needed to address Ole Miss’s offense as a whole.
Contain Chambliss
I wrote about this earlier this week, but a key to slowing down Ole Miss’s offense is containing QB Trinidad Chambliss. He’s a dynamic player with a flare for evading rushers to extend plays and give himself time to find one of the many explosive Ole Miss skill players down the field. This skill was showcased many times in the Allstate Sugar Bowl, and containing if not eliminating it is among the top priorities for Miami’s defense in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.
Miami’s done well to contain mobile QBs this season under DC Corey Hetherman, and this will need to be the case again vs Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl.
Run. The. Ball.
This is an area of the game should be a stark advantage for Miami. Ole Miss opponents have run for at least 108 yards in 11 games this season, and they’ve run for 4.3 yards or more 9 times. Miami has run the ball for at least 134 yards 11 times this season, and they’ve run for 4 yards or more 7 times, with 2 more games at 3.98 and 3.84 yards per carry as well. So Ole Miss allows it, and Miami bases their offense on it. Running the ball is foundational to Miami’s identity as a program, and the on-field performance of this year’s team. I love this matchup, and look forward to Miami exploiting it often.
Now, Ole Miss has had 2 of their strongest run defending games by yards per carry this season in the CFP, having held Tulane (I know, I know) to 3.38 yards per carry, and Georgia to 3.35 yards per carry. Those are among their best ypc run defense games this season, so Miami will have to be on their game running the ball, to pound Ole Miss’s defense and control the game.
Win the turnover battle
This was key to both of Miami’s CFP wins against Texas A&M and Ohio State, and winning the turnover battle will be a key against Ole Miss as well. After the Cotton Bowl, Miami has a stellar +12 turnover margin this season, good for 11th nationally. Ole Miss has an okay turnover margin as well, but only 0 / even for the season. With 14 turnovers in 14 games, Ole Miss doesn’t turn it over much, but Miami takes the ball away often, with 25 turnovers created in 14 games defensively. Ole Miss has turned the ball over at least once in 6 of the last 7 games and the last 4 consecutively. So, the chance is there for Miami to leverage this advantage as well.
Taking the ball away from the opponent is super awesome. Sports are about the ball, like the physical entity itself, so having it and taking it from the opponent are key items. Miami lost the turnover battle twice this season….and lost both games. Direct correlation to turnovers and results. So, following that logic, if Miami wins the turnover battle, they will likely win this game. So win the turnover battle. Please.
Create impactful/explosive plays
I was going to focus this on offense, but this is a point for all 3 phases for Miami.
On offense, Miami needs to continue to hit big plays in big moments on offense. Yes, I would like those to be nuclear vertical passes for huge chunks of yards and points, but I also mean this for an 8 yard pass on 3rd and 7. A 6 yard run on 3rd and 4. A 12 yard run by Beck through the face of 2 defenders on 3rd and 11 on the final drive of the game.
On defense, that’s a big PBU with physicality. That’s a disciplined pass rush to not allow Chambliss to extend a play and turn it into an explosive. That’s a tackle in the open field. That’s a sack in a key moment. That’s an interception to seal the game. In short, this can manifest itself in many ways, and Miami would do well to have that manifestation realize itself often against Ole Miss.
Those are my keys to the game for tonight’s Cotton Bowl. Share your keys to victory in the comments below.
