Like basically everything in college football, preseason projections must be taken with a grain of salt given how many key contributors are more or less new each season. That was absolutely the case for the backfield of the Michigan Wolverines this fall, as Jordan Marshall had only 31 carries as a freshman and Justice Haynes was arriving from the transfer portal.
It was believed that Marshall might be the featured of the two, coming off his 100-yard performance against Haynes’ Alabama. That still
could be the case by the end of the season, but it is really the transfer who has stolen the show, nearly doubling Marshall in carries and leading the Big Ten with 537 rushing yards so far. While Michigan has the luxury of two great rushers, Haynes is looking like the main event.
Give me half-credit?
I took a stab at projecting this backfield right before the season and feel like I was not completely off with my assessment:
It is really difficult to predict how the final numbers shake out, though I think the pathway will make itself clear during the year, be it due to one player just looking significantly better or (not to jinx it) someone getting injured. I think the gap will be much closer to 15 percentage points (like 2024) than 30 (like 2021 or 2023), but I do not think a completely even workload breakdown is the end state.
As good as Marshall was to close out the year — and despite his prior experience in Ann Arbor — it is really hard to not get excited about Haynes’ talent. This is a former top-50 recruit who is only here because of the transfer portal. He may start the season as RB1-b, but once both players get significant reps over the first month, I think the newcomer will have worked his way to the top.
While right now Haynes is taking 52.8% of the running back carries compared to Marshall’s 28.8% (so actually closer to that 30-point gap), I did believe in the raw talent of the Crimson Tide transfer and did not expect this to really be an even split. However, in the two “real” games, the scales have tipped even more heavily in Haynes favor, with a 68-32 skew at Oklahoma and a 74-26 result at Nebraska, with both contests notably competitive the whole game.
Two roads diverged
As good as Marshall has looked at times — including his three touchdowns on the year and really tough running against the Cornhuskers — it feels impossible to take the ball out of Haynes’ hands right now. Even as someone who loved his profile, no one was expecting this level of home-run hitting, and he is a legitimate threat to take any carry to the house, a vital benefit for this offense.
I do think Michigan wants to keep Marshall in the mix, and more performances like that on Saturday will make that choice easier and easier, but at the one-third mark of the season the hierarchy has been clearly set. The sophomore could benefit from the later stretch of Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, and Maryland, which would naturally be the time for the RB2 to see more work anyway.
But until that time, the backfield belongs to Haynes. Bryce Underwood will be using his legs more too, but the Wolverines have their next dominant rusher in to go beside Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum, Kalel Mullings, and many before them. The transfer portal can be a grab bag, but Michigan struck gold in a place that was already strong to begin with. Haynes is a monster that is proving to be as important to this offense as any other individual player.
