Hopefully we have a few more folks ready to jump on the basketball train after another disappointing football campaign. The Tigers are looking for a fourth consecutive NCAA tournament appearance, and that is rarefied air for this program. It is now easier to get a bid with another expansion of the tournament, this time to 76 teams, but most of us will consider making the round of 64 a legitimate tournament appearance going forward.
Dabo Swinney’s detractors can point to his recent teams not maximizing
their talent sufficiently, and certainly not nearly as much as was done over most of his tenure, but Brad Brownell has done wonders to get the most out of his rosters during this current run. Typically any that makes a deep run in the NCAA tournament features at least one NBA talent on its roster. Brownell has punched above his weight class with largely G-league and European league-level talent at the top end. If not for some very unfortunate injuries occurring late in the last two seasons (i.e., Dillon Hunter and Carter Welling), it is very likely the last two teams would have been able to advance further than they did.
Brownell has also made great use of the transfer portal to offset not being able to realistically land 5-star recruits. Programs like Miami, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, UVA, and certainly Duke and UNC are spending well beyond Clemson with their roster constructions, but Brownell has been able to notch wins over all of them in the last four seasons, including being the only team in the league to beat Duke in 2024-25. Brownell has produced the only wins in Chapel Hill in program history as well as the most impressive NCAA tournament run in program history despite never having a first-round NBA draft pick in his tenure. Brownell went from a guy who was a frequent hot-seat candidate to someone likely to have his name immortalized in Littlejohn when his career concludes.
PROJECTED STRENGTHS
Since bringing in Marcquise Reed, Shelton Mitchell, and Elijah Thomas in 2017, Brownell has found a strong balance between his trademark tough defense and an efficient, productive offense. Brownell’s teams had been just too poor offensively to be much better than .500 prior to that, save for his first season when he had inherited talent from Oliver Purnell. This year’s squad leans toward being offensively oriented, but Brad Brownell is a premier defensive coach and will get them playing strong team defense, hopefully sooner rather than later.
Offensively, Buckner and Faulkner should be the strengths of this year’s team. Faulkner has already shown to be a perfect fit for Clemson’s preferred high/low post system that requires a skilled big who can both score and pass. Clemson had to play in Italy without them, which offered others a chance to grow and get more minutes, but both public exhibitions demonstrated how vital both players will be this season. Clemson had a much harder time finishing the UGA game because of Buckner’s foul trouble, but pulled away from Presbyterian when Buckner was able to stay on the floor through the end. Losing Zac Foster was a big blow, but I felt last year’s team was peaking with Buckner taking more of a primary ballhandler role until Welling’s unfortunate injury. Faulkner has been tremendous so far and showed why he topped Brownell’s wish list in the portal. He can play back to the basket, can drive and hit midrange shots, and has been a very good passer.
Cole Certa was the other “big” transfer to join the team this season. Certa proved he can score and shoot at a high level in the ACC while at Notre Dame. Certa has yet to really go off as a Tiger either in the Italy games or the public exhibitions, but you figure it is only a matter of time before he rounds into shape. Certa should offer beyond what either Butta Johnson or Jestin Porter did as an offensive threat. You hope Brownell can mold his 6’5” frame into a better defender because both Johnson and Porter were above average in that regard. Clemson has consistently created open looks from 3 every season, and obviously Joe Girard III was exhibit A of a guy who really took advantage of it, so Certa should find plenty of good looks even with teams looking to minimize those.
One thing this team has done well so far is get to the free-throw line and be effective. This team can draw fouls at a high clip and that is always a huge plus. The team has used the FT to great effect to score at least 80 points in both exhibitions.
“Clemson Grit” is this program’s calling card, and that not only includes toughness on defense but also the unselfish playing style these last few teams have really mastered. This has allowed Clemson’s sum to be greater than its parts. I would predict this to be a strength again this year, though I allow that it might take a little time for it truly to set in considering the amount of new pieces this season.
PROJECTED WEAKNESSES
It seems a bit strange, but Clemson may have defense as a weakness for a portion of the season. This year’s team will likely not be as good defensively initially, especially until Carter Welling returns from knee injury, but it is hard to imagine a Brownell team ever being below average as a defensive unit. Clemson has finished outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency just once in the last ten years. That team was just one game over .500 and was the last to not make postseason play. Clemson’s projected starting lineup does not feature an elite rim protector (until Welling returns) or a proven top-notch on-ball defender (unless Dillon Hunter is granted eligibility).
Brownell noted how this team is a work in progress on defense. Welling is easily the best interior defender on the roster but not available until (likely) January. Zac Foster also offered plus length and athleticism as a perimeter defender prior to his knee re-injury. Clemson will have to score its way out of some situations more than Brad typically likes until the current roster gets coached up. Getting Dillon Hunter back would be massive for this side of the issue because he essentially puts a coach on the floor for vocal leadership. Just like with football, communication is so important on defense and any breakdown can often lead to an embarrassingly easy score for the opposition. There are just a lot of unknowns until Hunter’s fate is fully determined and Welling can return.
Although Brownell brought in high level shooters like Certa and Liutauras Lilivicius and returns Dallas Thomas, the team has yet to really find its stride from 3 in the preseason. Clemson shot 30% or lower against both UGA and PC. I wouldn’t say perimeter shooting will be a weakness for the season, but at the same time I have to see if the team will hit its stride here or underachieve. I’ll never forget when Rick Barnes was at Clemson and his 3 point specialist Andrius Jurkunas went from shooting 42% from 3 as a freshman to just 7.9% as a sophomore. He just never was able to find it in games that season, so you just hope that isn’t the case for guys like Certa this year.
If Hunter is not allowed to play, then point guard depth immediately becomes a potential weakness for this team. Harris Reynolds was certainly the prize of the last recruiting class and offers high-end talent approaching that of Foster, but he is continuing to adjust to this level. Clemson nearly blew the UGA game largely because of issues taking care of the ball once Ace Buckner had fouled out. Guys like Chase Hunter, Jaeden Zachary, and Dillon Hunter have been massive in closing out close games over the last three seasons. The jury is out on how well this year’s team will be able to do that.
One last potential weakness is post depth, though the Tigers have viable bodies in the paint. It certainly was a bit of a blessing in disguise to have to play in Italy without Faulkner, but it is hard to see Clemson being able to handle the high-major teams on the schedule if Faulkner has to spend long stretches on the bench. Clemson fans will certainly be hoping the injury bug has passed with Foster’s ACL and that both Faulkner and Buckner can avoid foul trouble more often than not.
FINAL ASSESSMENT
Overall, Clemson basketball should be a fun team watch and have room to grow and improve throughout the year, especially if/when Carter Welling returns in ACC play. I’ve really liked how well Clemson moves the ball in recent years, and if they can hit 3-pointers at a good clip, that will raise the ceiling significantly. Can the team do well enough out of conference to welcome Carter Welling back in a good position? Will Faulkner and Buckner be become the high-level scorers they’ve appeared to be in the last two exhibitions? Does Dallas Thomas and/or Chase Thompson emerge as a major contributor off the bench? There are questions, but we feel this team has the roster and coaching to at least reach the Round of 64. We’re certainly ready to tune in and find out.
