Going into 2026, this was clearly going to be a pivotal year where Coby Mayo had to prove that he was going to be something or else it might sink in that he will never be anything. Yet he was also stuck in a paradox, because it was not obvious when Mayo would even get the opportunity to show what he did or didn’t have. By the time the dust settled on Mayo’s make-or-break season, he did get the chance, and it ended up being part-break and part-make, with the haters and doubters being both validated
and repudiated at different times.
As spring training approached, the door to actual playing time still seemed to be closed to Mayo. The team committed big money to Pete Alonso and much less money to keep around Ryan Mountcastle. This seemed to close the door to Mayo getting any regular time at first base, and even if he could theoretically play third base, that was taken up by Jordan Westburg.
Before any team workouts even started, Westburg was revealed to be injured. He had a second injury reveal itself while recovering from the first and ended up never playing a game this season. Mayo’s shot at the third base job was there for the taking. This notion gave fans anxiety in spring training, largely due to concerns about Mayo’s defensive shortcomings at the position.
These concerns were frequently reinforced over the course of the Grapefruit League schedule. Mayo was the presumptive Opening Day third baseman and you probably didn’t feel good about it. He turned out to be the actual Opening Day third baseman, and the most frequent third baseman through the end of June, and… there still wasn’t much to feel good about. Mayo wasn’t hitting and he wasn’t fielding either. It was grim enough for a while there that the Orioles were regularly chucking Weston Wilson into lineups as the third baseman.
By the time July began, Mayo was batting a putrid .190/.260/.376 for the season. He had lost regular at-bats at the position to Blaze Alexander, of all people, who had been worse than worthless through the end of April but found some productivity before Mayo did and supplanted him for a little while. Then, some idiot Royals pitcher hit Alexander in the hand, broke several bones, and knocked him out of action for a time. I hate those guys.
With how Mayo was performing up to that point in the year, it would have been a shameful circumstance for the Orioles to just keep playing him as the third baseman. They did not do so, summoning infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand from Norfolk and giving him the lion’s share of the playing time from then until season’s end.
The 26-year-old, at one time an interesting power-hitting prospect who never quite put things together in Cincinnati, was acquired for cash considerations in April and had hit 17 home runs in 61 games for the Tides. Given that big league opportunity in Baltimore, Encarnacion-Strand made the most of it, rolling to a .277/.325/.513 batting line in the 58 games that he played.
That’s pretty much what everyone from Mike Elias on down has been hoping that Mayo would be able to be, and before the arrival of CES, never had been. He even played a decent third base for the first time in his MLB career, something the Reds never gave him a chance to do because they didn’t play him there. Now, CES could be the Opening Day third baseman. Or a healthy Westburg could. Alonso, one of the reigning MLB iron men, is obviously playing at first. Where does Mayo fit in all of that?
All of this sounds like a “break” year for Mayo. And for quite a while, it was. Yet even at his worst, there were positives going on under the hood. Mayo was hitting left-handed pitching so well that he at least seemed like he could be a platoon bat of some kind. Out of 12 first half home runs, nearly every one was hit against a left-handed pitcher. That’s something you can at least hang your hat on to stick around, and if you can stick around, maybe you can change the narrative.
Changing the narrative is exactly what Mayo did from July onwards. He exploded for a .924 OPS that month and continued that strong performance for the rest of the season, posting OPS numbers of .873 and .878 for August and September. He walked more often and struck out less. By season’s end, he was even getting some licks in against right-handed pitching, the kind of thing that he absolutely had not been doing early on.
If that’s a real breakout, there’s a place for Mayo, even if Alonso keeps playing every day, Westburg is actually healthy, and CES repeats something close to what he did with the Orioles this year. If, if, if. It always comes down to if. Some guys manage to sustain the breakout. Other times, it is only a mirage, and when you think you are getting water out of the desert oasis, it’s just a mouthful of sand.
It is impossible for us to know which way it will go right now. There is a plausible story there of why it improved. Maybe Mayo did make an adjustment that will lead to durable improvement, and things clicking beginning in July was something like the new normal. None of what he did in the last three months was fueled by unsustainable batted ball luck. He was swinging the bat fast, hitting the ball hard, finding the barrel.
That’s important. It’s not just empty hopes and dreams fueling any belief in Mayo. There’s three months of continuously good MLB performance suggesting he can do the thing. If he can do the thing, the Orioles will find room for him. Even with as much as he struggled in the first half of this season, Mayo finished with a 1.1 bWAR and 2.0 fWAR for the full season. Second Half Mayo over a full season is probably a 3-3.5 WAR guy. Sign me up for that.
The scouting world has always thought Mayo would end up in right field, where his strong arm would play and where he might do better at reacting to line drives from the outfield grass than how he sometimes does from the infield dirt. This perspective was recently endorsed by no less than Hall of Famer Jim Palmer.
The Orioles, for unclear reasons, have steadfastly avoided ever trying this. They did not put Mayo in the outfield even one time on his way up the minor league ladder. I am skeptical that they will suddenly decide that now is the time to try it. Maybe they will surprise me.
I have been hoping to get a star breakout from Coby Mayo on the Orioles since the moment they drafted him, when, knowing nothing more than his name, it was apparent that he has a great Baltimore accent name. Unfortunately, the amount of fun that I would have saying, “Coby Mayo, three-run home run, hon!” has zero impact on his success as a professional baseball player. That’s just not how it works.
The Orioles control the rights to Mayo through the 2031 season. He does not even reach arbitration until 2028. He hit 24 home runs this year while only being good for half the season. There could be some 30+ home run seasons for a few years to come if he puts it all together for a year. Again, the if. I want to believe. Elias would be wise to have a backup plan.
