For those of you new to the site (and I hope there are many of you), here’s the gist; every week I review the penalties from the Bills game. We talk the rules, what was a big deal. What wasn’t. This week will be a bit shortened just like the game week.
Standard and Advanced Metrics
Penalty Counts
This is where most traditional penalty analysis lives and breathes. For us it’s just the journey. The league averages are likely a good deal higher now than they will be at the end of the season, but this is where things stand right now.
Buffalo was
significantly higher than average while Houston was right around it. The easy conclusion is that the Bills had the rougher day, but that’s not necessarily true. Let’s keep going.
For yards called on the field, both teams had a very rough go of it. And here the script is flipped. At least on the assessed yards. Here’s where we diverge from traditional analysis. On the right side are “true yards” which count yards impacted/negated by flags as well. And when they’re added in, it’s a dead heat.
Penalty harm
Buffalo Bills
I apologize as I have a time crunch this week so I won’t go through all the flags or have GIFs but look for those next week. The short version for any new readers is that “Harm” factors in not just the assessed yards of a flag, but those negated by penalty as well. It also counts lost downs, points negated, etc.
For an example of the calculation, Christian Benford’s defensive pass interference call was assessed for 21 yards which is 2.1 harm (yards x 0.1) but also gave up a free down from second. That adds in 1.0 harm for the total of 3.1.
Davison Igbinosun has a “negative” harm on his defensive holding as the Texans had gained seven yards on the play but gave that up for the free five to retain the down. It’s a rare quirk in the formula. It happens, but not enough to drastically revise the whole thing.
Overall I felt the penalties were warranted on Buffalo. The too many men on the field which negated what should have been an easy conversion was in my opinion the most egregious one. I know this is brief, so let me know if you have any questions/thoughts/concerns in the comments.
The Bills had 13.2 harm for this game total. 10.0 is a good enough divider between a good day and bad, so it’s safe to say the yellow laundry had an impact on Buffalo.
Houston Texans
The Texans by count looked much better off than Buffalo, but a closer look at impact says otherwise. The Texans had two flags over 4.0 Harm. Kamari Lassiter was called for defensive pass interference and that is all assessed yards. This occurred in the end zone, putting the ball on the one-yard line and was a true field flipper.
David Montgomery was called for a chop block and this was more complex. The flag itself was 15 yards. It also wiped out a six-yard gain on 3rd & 5. That negated a first down or, put differently, impacted two downs for another 2.0 Harm.
The Texans had 14.2 total harm. While not by much, despite the lower counts compared to the Bills, the Texans had the worse day.
